first card 10 Question

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snorky

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I received this opportunity a few weeks ago where I know for a fact my first card is a 10. The TC is 3, not that it matters. How much of my bankroll do I bet. What is the formula to determine the risk I'm taking. I know there is an article by JG on the ace, but I am bad at comprehending it.

Out of intuition, table max seems plausible since it was 1/20th of my bankroll.
 
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Sucker

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
The optimal bet in this situation is to bet 13% of your BR. This is one of the few times in BJ where it IS correct to bet full Kelly, because of the fact that you will never get a double down if your first card is a ten.
 
Gamblor

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
A cool trick to consider is if you know the first card will be a 10 or A (and maybe 9) on the first card of the deal, move to 1st base if its open. Don't let that ploppy take your ten, its rightfully yours :)
 
Lonesome Gambler

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Sucker makes a good point--a full-Kelly bet with a first-card Ace is a pretty risky move, but a full-Kelly bet with a first-card Ten is mandatory, as long as the table max and heat considerations permit.
 
L

London Colin

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Lonesome Gambler said:
Sucker makes a good point--a full-Kelly bet with a first-card Ace is a pretty risky move, but a full-Kelly bet with a first-card Ten is mandatory, as long as the table max and heat considerations permit.
Click to expand...
What are the EVs of an ace played according to BS versus an ace played with a no-splitting, no-doubling strategy?

Is it conceivable that a full kelly bet with the latter strategy would yield more than the smaller bet you would make with the former?

Edited to add: Do we have a terminology issue here? As I understand it, full Kelly for BJ is approximated by EV/Variance, whereas for a simple, two-outcome, even-money bet it is just the EV. So if we want to bet full kelly on the ace, I guess we can divide by the variance specific to the ace, rather than the variance for a generic hand of bj.

In either case, having figured out what full kelly is, we can then choose to bet a fraction of that amount in order to reduce bankroll fluctuations and guard against the need to resize our bets below the table limits.

Does all that make sense?
 
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