First-time BJI poster, with Advice

[RJT]

The point i was trying to make earlier is that nothing is impossible. Have you read Bill Zender's 'Casino Executive's Guide to Advantage Play'? There are some fairly amazing stories of how people have taken advantage of many games that personally i would say were a lot more out there than the idea of poorly designed hole card readers. Cap has been no way offensive, and has not even suggest that anyone else tries his system. He has simply offered to discuss what he does and what has worked in his experience. I don't see the problem here? People don't think that it'll work, that's fine, everyone's entitled to their opinion.....

RJT.

 

[21forme]

question for you, is it not possible that cap is playing an advantage game?
i stated why i think he is earlier basically because hes using BS and basic counting... betting high after seeing low cards, this coupled with a double deck game, and a HUGE spread, $25-$2000)
i'm not in anyway saying this is an optimal strategy, just one with a long term positive expectation.

Is there any casino in the US that would let him get away with such a large spread, unless he was not winning?

 

[captheathmalc]

He would have the advantage if the dealer knew wether the hole card was high or low when they checked for blackjack but since the dealer really doesn't know this he probably is not playing with an advantage. His simple counting strategy probably hurts him more that helps him.

Actually.... Using the systems that I assume most of you use, and accepting their common-truths, your statement insinuates that counting cards is a practice in futility.

Let me explain, so I am not mis-understood, yet again:

According to the card-counting strategy... If you were to employ BS with a simple-count, you would reduce the house advantage to approximately 1%.

The normal house edge is arguably 6-8%, dependent on the rules of the table.

The average "Joe" (or Ploppy, as some of you prefer), who doesn't use BS or even a resemblence of it, gives up as much as 20% to the house. This percentage varies widely, so I cannot say any number here that cannot be argued for, or against.

However..... Assuming that I only use BS, and nothing else.... You are telling me that a simple count...regardless of it's simplicity doesn't add...but subtracts from my chances? If this statement is true, then using this same line of thought...every card-counting system would reduce your chances. And since we know that isn't true, then we also know that your statement also, cannot be true.

To the person playing on a team since the 90's(sorry forgot your name).... since you have a table handy....I'd suggest you go to it, and deal out an entire shoe (6D).... If you truely have a table, then you will see what I am talking about. You said you were interested in every advantage....well, you are most-definitely missing one.

 

[bluewhale]

The normal house edge is arguably 6-8%, dependent on the rules of the table.

sorry buddy, i was on your side. but you've just lost all your credibility.

 

[KenSmith]

The average "Joe" (or Ploppy, as some of you prefer), who doesn't use BS or even a resemblence of it, gives up as much as 20% to the house. This percentage varies widely, so I cannot say any number here that cannot be argued for, or against.

While the house edge against the average Joe might indeed vary widely, I can assure you that even the worst players don't give up 20%. Obviously a player could make this number arbitrarily high by intentionally busting hands, but I challenge anyone to come up with any kind of rational playing strategy that causes the house edge to reach 20%.

As other posters have noted, the other percentages in your post are way off as well.

 

[QFIT]

He appears to have confused drop with edge. Drop may very well be 20%. I really don't think he has a basic understanding of his edge, other's edge, peeking devices, or history. It has been commonly known that the world was a globe since ancient Greece more than a thousand years before the 14th century. Hard to miss with the shadow of the Earth showing up on the moon every 28 days.

As for peeking devices; I've met two people that claimed they invented them. They may have along with others. At first they were simple mirror devices to avoid hole-carders. But they quickly graduated, as said by others, to devices and cards that gave no more info to the dealer than the player. Casinos worry, rightfully, more about dealer/player collusion than counters. They trust dealers less than they trust players as most cheating scandals involve dealers. The latest devices just blink an LED to player and dealer at the same time. You even see this in the islands.

I don't mean to sound harsh. It just started getting weirder and weirder.

 

[captheathmalc]

sorry buddy, i was on your side. but you've just lost all your credibility.

While the house edge against the average Joe might indeed vary widely, I can assure you that even the worst players don't give up 20%. Obviously a player could make this number arbitrarily high by intentionally busting hands, but I challenge anyone to come up with any kind of rational playing strategy that causes the house edge to reach 20%.

As other posters have noted, the other percentages in your post are way off as well.

Actually, I picked those numbers up off some BJ site...trying to find it again, so I can see what I obviously misquoted. I'll copy/paste next time to make sure.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Actually, I picked those numbers up off some BJ site...trying to find it again, so I can see what I obviously misquoted. I'll copy/paste next time to make sure.

It might be a good idea to know what the typical house edge is on blackjack, and the value of the standard card counting methods, before you offer advice to a bunch of card counters. Not trying to be mean or anything, but most of us take the game very seriously and have little patience for posters that appear to be offering bad advice based on systems with no solid mathematical basis.

Let me help: the typical house edge for a basic strategy player runs from 0.2% to 0.7%. Normal card counting is going to create a swing of 1-2% in the player's direction. So most of us end up playing with a player edge of 1-1.5%. I'd love to work with you on any way to improve that.

 

[EasyRhino]

Hey cap, I don't think anyone here wants come across as belligerent to you. You seem like a nice guy, and you don't seem to be a charlatan (see cipherblackjack thread for examples).

I think the reason that you've been interrogated so much is because, quite simply, you've got the collective body of the message board confused.

You must understand, the knee-jerk reaction of this crowd, when confronted with a "system" with no particular degree of proof, will dismiss it as voodoo. (zg's query about knowing basic strategy is a fairly automatic part of the vetting process).

If you do have a verifiable, repeatable, system, then we'd like to figure out what the heck it is. It may match to some commonly accepted advantage technique, or it may be something totally new (which we would all love to copy!).

You've been playing quite a while, and you're up quite a lot. The law of large numbers would imply that you've got something going. Note that an exception to this would be if you played relatively few bets with very large amounts. Care to share more information re: your betting, and how much time you bet various amounts in your bet range, and how much you bet in a "high count" vs a "low count"?

I'll be frank, I'm increasingly pessimistic of the odds of the dealer peek being a useful play, because of three constraints:
1) The dealer has to be checking for BJ (not all hands)
2) The dealer has to check the wrong way (very rare in my experience)
3) Any information from a tell is gleaned after you already make your bet, limiting the most obvious profit-increasing opportunity.

But... you mention something with the dealer cut, what have you got cooking there? If the dealer saw a card, I would only imagine they would know if a single card was cut into or out of play, or maybe what the very last card of the shoe would be (but they wouldn't necessesarily know when the end would arrive).

There are some player techniques with the cut, mainly involving spotting the card, marking its position exactly in the deck, and then "steering" the card to the desired location during play. But that doesn't sound like anything you've mentioned, and it would probably be near impossible at a table populated with strangers.

PS - The worst strategy listed on Wizard of Odd's page is literally assuming a ten is in the hold, which has about a 10% edge. A mimic the dealer strategy had about a 5.5% edge. So, even a horrible strategy like mimic the dealer is still better than slots or keno!

 

[captheathmalc]

Okay...Found out what I did wrong:

The numbers...(20%) Were specific to a certain hand (two 8's) and the difference between Basic strategy, and someone not playing with basic strategy. In my attempt to find what I wanted fast enough, I mis-interpreted it.

Due to everyone being so keen on numbers...I have decided to learn a solid count-strategy. I am doing this to see if it is actually better than the way I currently play...using patterns, BS, and tells. I plan on using the Hi Opt II, which I have been told is a pretty good system.

As for the previous post, on expectation range..I used one of the threads posted by ZG (so I wont have trouble finding it again)...and according to that site... the range varies (depending on the rules for the table and variation)from -0.76% to +2.32%

As for the previous poster..... My only advice to anyone here, was to study a system to perfection before using it. I have never claimed to be an expert adviser, nor have I offered anything other than my opinion related to my original post. My numbers were off due to negligence (which you guys were very quick to point out, ty), but the fact that my numbers were off, only further illustrates my point in the post where I used them.

 

[captheathmalc]

Due to everyone being so keen on numbers...I have decided to learn a solid count-strategy. I am doing this to see if it is actually better than the way I currently play...using patterns, BS, and tells. I plan on using the Hi Opt II, which I have been told is a pretty good system.

On this topic...I hope to have the system perfected by June. I'll update you when I am comfortable with it (then...you can pick my words apart again LOL )

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Banger Play

This concept of the dealer checking for BJ reminds me of something from Clarke Cant's Blackjack Therapy essay about "banger play". (Isn't that also called Wong Warps?) In places where the dealer bends the card up the old-fashioned way to check for BJ, they are also bending the top card (which is always an ace or 10) from back to front. So after a bit of play the aces and 10's are going to get warped (banged up) and they won't lay flat when they are the hole card. I can't remember the last place I played where the dealer checks for BJ that way, but this sounds like a lot of fun and profit.

Having the dealer flash the hole card when checking for BJ is one of the few effective forms of holecarding in shoe games.

 

[shadroch]

I think everyone agrees that you can profit from a dealers tell when he has to peek at his cards,and knows his hole card.Now if we could only find such a casino.
Heath states that he watchs the dealers reaction to the mirror device,which tells the dealer nothing about his card.Adding in his statements about playing at "happy" tables, and watching the skill level of the third base guy makes me quite dubious. I'm wondering why he doesn't check for dirty ashtrays,and empty glasses as well.Surefire tells that the people are having success.
Can he make money playing such a system? Sure,why not.He might as well be that one in a thousand as well as the next guy. Is he playing with an advantage? I highly doubt it.

 

[captheathmalc]

Heath states that he watchs the dealers reaction to the mirror device,which tells the dealer nothing about his card.

Careful Shadroch..., else you risk putting words in my mouth that I never said. It has been "assumed" that I used only the dealer reaction to the hole card, due to the path this thread took. Although...the ashtrays were a nice touch.

No sense in me stopping the thread now....not when it has taken on a life of it's own, and has generated so much interest.

I...as we speak (symbolically, of course), am on my way to purchase a few books. I have decided (thanx to all of the helpful hints I have recieved) that I am going to go purchase a few books. I am a prolific reader, and read about a book a day, and I plan to spend the next 7-14 days reading nothing but blackjack books.

The following books are available at the local store, and I'll be going to get them shortly:

The world's greatest BlackJack book...Lance Humble

BlackJack Attack: Don Schlesinger

BlackJack Bluebook II: Fred Renzey

BlackJack Secrets: Stanford Wong

Professional BlackJack Stanford Wong


Now...I am completely positive, that by the time I get home, someone will have made a post telling me how poor my selections were, and how I wasted my money....but I will get them anyway.

If you have any suggested reading.... please feel free to give me the title and author, and also add a brief description of what it adds, that the above mentioned books don't.

 

[Sonny]

The world's greatest BlackJack book...Lance Humble

BlackJack Attack: Don Schlesinger

BlackJack Bluebook II: Fred Renzey

BlackJack Secrets: Stanford Wong

Professional BlackJack Stanford Wong

Those are all good (legitimate) BJ books. As a helpful hint, I suggest that you read them in this order:

1) Blackjack Bluebook II
2) Professional Blackjack
3) Blackjack Attack
4) Blackjack Secrets
5) World’s Greatest…(You can probably skip this one. Most of the information is covered in the previous books, but you might find something interesting.)

The first two are great introductions to BJ. Blackjack Attack is an advanced book that assumes the reader is already an avid card counter. It is meant for people who have learned how to count and want to know “what’s next.” Blackjack Secrets is mostly a compilation of little techniques that can be used to get a little extra edge in certain circumstances.

-Sonny-

 

[Sonny]

I plan on using the Hi Opt II, which I have been told is a pretty good system.

Hi-Opt II is a very strong system, but the ace side count makes is impractical for most players (and games). It would be better to start with something like HiLo which is a much simpler yet very powerful system. It is described in Wong's book.

-Sonny-

 

[captheathmalc]

Those are all good (legitimate) BJ books. As a helpful hint, I suggest that you read them in this order:

1) Blackjack Bluebook II
2) Professional Blackjack
3) Blackjack Attack
4) Blackjack Secrets
5) World’s Greatest…(You can probably skip this one. Most of the information is covered in the previous books, but you might find something interesting.)

The first two are great introductions to BJ. Blackjack Attack is an advanced book that assumes the reader is already an avid card counter. It is meant for people who have learned how to count and want to know “what’s next.” Blackjack Secrets is mostly a compilation of little techniques that can be used to get a little extra edge in certain circumstances.

-Sonny-

Well, it looks like I'm not getting any of them today....It's Martin Luther King Day, and they decided to close the book store and even the library. So it appears I'll be waiting one more day.

Hi-Opt II is a very strong system, but the ace side count makes is impractical for most players (and games). It would be better to start with something like HiLo which is a much simpler yet very powerful system. It is described in Wong's book.

-Sonny-

I am vaguely familiar with the HiLo...I think..... isn't that: A/-2; T/-1; 9,8/=0; 2-7=+1 ??? If it is (or not), this is the count that I learned long ago... I am pretty fast at it. I tested myself with the help of my wife last night:

Results:
1D: 1st time: off 1
2nd time off 1
3rd-10th time perfect

3D: 1st time- off 3
2nd time: off 5
3rd time off 1
4th-6th times: perfect
7th time: off 2
8th-10th time: perfect

6D
1st: off 4
2nd: off 1
3rd: off 11 (have no idea how this happened)
4th: perfect
5th: off 2
6th-7th: perfect
8th: off 4
9th: off one
10th: perfect


These were the conditions: Stereo was on; and 18 month old son was running around. I had her dealing the cards to 5 places, all face down except mine and her face card. She only needed to stop once (during 3D, 5R, so that may have been the reason I got that one perfect...or not...but it is a possibility) to give our son a sippy-cup.

These numbers aren't perfect...but take into consideration that this was the first time I have tried to count in about 7-8? years. I believe the numbers for this will increase dramatically over the next week, and I should have it perfect.....even with the 6D...which I rarely play at anymore.

In-case someone is curious...the reason the cards were face down for the other 4 players is because I run into this situation about 75% of the time @ 2D tables.

More later.

 

[shadroch]

The dealer looks in his little table-mirror. You watch his eyes/mouth/shoulders/hands and the way he moves to the shoe. You will find that they are very consistent.

Obviously, these "tells" only matter when a T or A is up, but since that will happen on average once every third hand......

How is that different from what I said?

 

[zengrifter]

Those are all good (legitimate) BJ books. As a helpful hint, I suggest that you read them in this order:
1) Blackjack Bluebook II
2) Professional Blackjack
3) Blackjack Attack
4) Blackjack Secrets

I recommend this list/order -

1. Knockout BJ
2. Blackbelt in BJ
3. BJ Attack

zg

 

[supercoolmancool]

I'd add burning the tables in Las Vegas by Ian Anderson to the end of Zengrifter's list.