Getting your ass kicked

tfg · May 30, 2009

Don't you just hate when every single double down or split that you get ends up not working and you can never get ahead? It has to be when I have a decent bet out there also. Then you're playing from behind all night.

Or when you sit down and it seems you can't win a hand? Very frustrating. I think that's the hardest part about this game, being patient.

creeping panther · May 30, 2009

Tfg

tfg said:

Learn to get up and walk away!

There are other tables, other times, other games.

CP

shadroch · May 30, 2009

In my opinion and experiance, learning to be patient is the hardest part of the game.

tfg · May 30, 2009

creeping panther said:

Yeah, I seem to have a big problem with that. Sometimes I just park myself at a table and I take a beating. Then I realize, why the hell did I stay there? I think sometimes I fall into the "this table has had a bunch of terrible shoes, so there's got to be a good one coming" mentality. But last night was my fault. I had been up and down all night and then I grinded back to only being down a little, which I was going to just live with and say that's okay for tonight. I looked at the time and I noticed at this point it was pretty late and I was pretty tired and then I wasn't playing, I was really gambling and I pressed on a little further.

I violated my own rule of, you never should say, I'm gonna play one more shoe. You either leave after a good shoe or if you plan on staying, make sure that you've got a bunch more shoes in you to play. Knowing your cut off is very important.

sagefr0g · May 30, 2009

fights can hurt

tfg said:

there are all kinds of warriors, fighting machines, and when it comes to blackjack all kinds of players. what kind are you? can you meet the qualifications of a professional blackjack player and are you the most perfect card counter in the world or are you a bit different?

what ever there is a subtle trap a guy like me can fall into. i care far too much about this battle now and tend to forget the war or even past victories and the fact that i'm winning the war. so it happens any player is from time to time going to find himself in a deep hole in some given session. the subtle trap i fall into is forgetting that even though i have the over all advantage it is also true that the vast majority of battle time is spent at a disadvantage. what that translates into in technical terms is me parking myself at a table that i can clearly see the count has tanked and the remaining pack is a hopeless situation. but i want quick victory, i want my money back, i forget how weak and vulnerable my game is when playing against a disadvantageous pack. so i play on into a virtually hopeless battle. so that subtle mistake, the thing one might blindly do is spending ones energy and resources in a virtually hopeless battle when retreat and a new attack might turn the tide of the battle. i forget that, so what, that it's hard to get a seat at a new table but it's better to not play and not lose money than to hold that seat in a virtually hopeless situation.
so really the point is, that it's not so much the winning or losing money but are you playing in an advantageous situation or not. it's so easy to lose sight of that.

daddybo · May 30, 2009

Sagefrog and CP are right..

Playing in advantageous situations is the only way to win.. About those decks where you can't win a hand even in the monster plus counts.. Go find another table or better yet another store.. it's like Creeping Panther said, if it's kicking your butt quit playing it.

But the biggest thing is PATIENCE. I once read a Creeping Panther post taking about stalking his prey. I believe that's exactly right... you hang in there and wait for the advantageous situation... Then you pounce with out fear. Patience.
Good things come to he who waits.

Tarzan · May 30, 2009

Sometimes it just isn't your day

Sometimes things go bad. This is just a fact of life in blackjack. Things can go WAY bad even (see my references to playing against "the dealer from hell")... you can lose 9 out of 10 hands for hours straight regardless of what the count is doing.

What is that saying? "It's okay to lose a few battles as long as you win the war." Learning to walk away and find another table or casino that does not have the luckiest dealer on the planet that can get nothing but 20, 21 or blackjack EVERY SINGLE HAND while you get 12-16 hands in a row and break every time you hit it is not a bad idea in my opinion.

Recreational player and professional alike stick to staying at that particularly ugly table with the luckiest dealer in the world for two different reasons with the same end result----------------------------------

Recreational Player: "It's going to turn, it's going to change."

Not necessarily! A "hot dealer" having their lucky day in the sun has a tendency to score those amazing hands for hours, for their whole shift even! Unpredictable streaks and runs that have little to do with anything but random luck of the draw!

Professional Player: "Strictly by the math."

The professional player will completely disregard an incredibly lucky run on the part of the dealer and stick it out at this same table with the same result... they get clobbered! The only difference is that the professional player has enough money backing them and puts the sort of hours in that they will make it up eventually. The professional player is too arrogant to go with anything other than "strictly by the math".

Oh those streaks and runs... if only we could accurately predict these things! The short-term result can do just about anything. It goes the other way also where you the player can do nothing but WIN WIN WIN no matter what the count is doing. I have had a dealer say to me, "Why aren't you pressing up? You're winning every hand!" I couldn't exactly say, "Well, currently we are in a crummy count that I shouldn't even be playing in at all and wouldn't be if not for a nomidshoe play all situation. It's a total fluke that I am winning so many hands right now." This would be just the wrong thing to say at the blackjack table.

These weird streaks and runs that defy logic are unpredictable and maybe this is why dealers that witness these odd streaks and runs are so superstitious when it comes to these things.

I have said this before and I'll say it again. I am not so full of pride and confidence that I can't walk away from a hot dealer. I am not so arrogant and full of a sense of invincibility that I am "strictly by the math" and oblivious to all else. Perhaps I am "95% by the math", making me 5% flawed according to 78% of the professionals here that will say "Shut up and don't be a whining baby... stick it out against that hot dealer... bend over and take it like a man damn it!" and other similar statements.

ah...craps · May 30, 2009

Tarzan said:

Sometimes things go bad. This is just a fact of life in blackjack. Things can go WAY bad even (see my references to playing against "the dealer from hell")... you can lose 9 out of 10 hands for hours straight regardless of what the count is doing.

What is that saying? "It's okay to lose a few battles as long as you win the war." Learning to walk away and find another table or casino that does not have the luckiest dealer on the planet that can get nothing but 20, 21 or blackjack EVERY SINGLE HAND while you get 12-16 hands in a row and break every time you hit it is not a bad idea in my opinion.

Recreational player and professional alike stick to staying at that particularly ugly table with the luckiest dealer in the world for two different reasons with the same end result----------------------------------

Recreational Player: "It's going to turn, it's going to change."

Not necessarily! A "hot dealer" having their lucky day in the sun has a tendency to score those amazing hands for hours, for their whole shift even! Unpredictable streaks and runs that have little to do with anything but random luck of the draw!

Professional Player: "Strictly by the math."

The professional player will completely disregard an incredibly lucky run on the part of the dealer and stick it out at this same table with the same result... they get clobbered! The only difference is that the professional player has enough money backing them and puts the sort of hours in that they will make it up eventually. The professional player is too arrogant to go with anything other than "strictly by the math".

Oh those streaks and runs... if only we could accurately predict these things! The short-term result can do just about anything. It goes the other way also where you the player can do nothing but WIN WIN WIN no matter what the count is doing. I have had a dealer say to me, "Why aren't you pressing up? You're winning every hand!" I couldn't exactly say, "Well, currently we are in a crummy count that I shouldn't even be playing in at all and wouldn't be if not for a nomidshoe play all situation. It's a total fluke that I am winning so many hands right now." This would be just the wrong thing to say at the blackjack table.

These weird streaks and runs that defy logic are unpredictable and maybe this is why dealers that witness these odd streaks and runs are so superstitious when it comes to these things.

I have said this before and I'll say it again. I am not so full of pride and confidence that I can't walk away from a hot dealer. I am not so arrogant and full of a sense of invincibility that I am "strictly by the math" and oblivious to all else. Perhaps I am "95% by the math", making me 5% flawed according to 78% of the professionals here that will say "Shut up and don't be a whining baby... stick it out against that hot dealer... bend over and take it like a man damn it!" and other similar statements.

I agree with your idea of leaving a good count table your getting killed at...but only if the deck is hand shuffled. Most BJ players are aware of slugs of low/high cards in the deck even if they cannot predict them. However, if the casino is using an ASM then shuffle tracking is destroyed and so should any notion of a "hot dealer" in my opinion.

Automatic Monkey · May 30, 2009

tfg said:

What are you talking about? If you are getting good EV, play the game. When you are counting one shoe has no effect on the next, and whether you're going to get a good shoe or a bad shoe next time is random.

The only thing you should be walking away from is negative counts, but if fatigue drives you to a point where you abandon AP and start gambling you have to rework your schedule a bit and avoid that degree of fatigue.

Tarzan · May 31, 2009

Let's back up a minute here...

Who said anything about leaving during a good count? That is your time to shine, your time to make up for lost time, your chance at redemption. Perhaps leave as soon as the good count tanks out against the hot dealer that can do no wrong but to leave during that precious time that you have a good count which is only about 25% of the time in a nomidshoe play all situation is not such a brilliant move! You have these few hands to try and make up for lost time and push it out, win or lose... THEN bail and seek greener pastures if playing the hot dealer that can do no wrong.

You have already been at the table long enough to determine that the dealer is "on a roll" and you are getting slaughtered so you can darn sure stick around long enough to take one last stand and push it out if you happen to be in a good count at the point you are starting to think "Oh boy this is a rough table and I am getting slaughtered". When it rolls back to neutral or gets to the end of the shoe from there THEN bail. I am easily spooked off a table though... from seeing crazy things that defy logic and math probabilities happening in the short-term.

I have been in that exact situation in which the dealer is slamming away overall and as lucky as it gets and about the time I am thinking about getting the hell away from that table I am in a good count and take one last stand... in which I fail miserably and the dealer gets 3 blackjacks in a row while I get three 14's in a row and so on and so forth and bow out as soon as the count goes bad.

Automatic Monkey · May 31, 2009

Tarzan said:

Don't worry, I've seen the same thing too. Dealers so lucky that if I were dealing that lucky in an illegal game in somebody's basement, I would expect to be stabbed.

But lucky doesn't last. Believe me, I've been lucky too, and it doesn't last. So if I am getting a good game, speed and pen and all that good stuff, and I still have money in my pocket, and no heat, and still not too tired, I'm going to keep playing no matter how many 21's the dealer pulls out of his ass. It can turn good faster than you can believe.

ah...craps · May 31, 2009

Tarzan said:

Who said anything about leaving during a good count? That is your time to shine, your time to make up for lost time, your chance at redemption. Perhaps leave as soon as the good count tanks out against the hot dealer that can do no wrong but to leave during that precious time that you have a good count which is only about 25% of the time in a nomidshoe play all situation is not such a brilliant move! You have these few hands to try and make up for lost time and push it out, win or lose... THEN bail and seek greener pastures if playing the hot dealer that can do no wrong.

You have already been at the table long enough to determine that the dealer is "on a roll" and you are getting slaughtered so you can darn sure stick around long enough to take one last stand and push it out if you happen to be in a good count at the point you are starting to think "Oh boy this is a rough table and I am getting slaughtered". When it rolls back to neutral or gets to the end of the shoe from there THEN bail. I am easily spooked off a table though... from seeing crazy things that defy logic and math probabilities happening in the short-term.

I have been in that exact situation in which the dealer is slamming away overall and as lucky as it gets and about the time I am thinking about getting the hell away from that table I am in a good count and take one last stand... in which I fail miserably and the dealer gets 3 blackjacks in a row while I get three 14's in a row and so on and so forth and bow out as soon as the count goes bad.

Oh I misspoke, sorry, I meant there are times when you should play through a low count (referenced shuffle tracking)...but overall shouldn't play in negative counts.

ihate17 · Jun 1, 2009

Big losses, big wins and some great comebacks

Conditions are the thing. Win or lose if the pen is good and other conditions are good, I will stay and play even when the dealer is turning every 15 or 16 into a 21 and I am hitting an ace on every 11 I double.
Sure, I will wong out of many negative counts, especially in shoe games, but patience is perhaps my strength.
Plaing this way I have had some big loses but I have also had terrible tables turn around and result in huge wins or big comebacks before I departed.

ihate17

tfg · Jun 1, 2009

Yeah, there can be quick turnarounds. There's been a bunch of times where I've been at a table that the dealer can't miss and I've watched everyone else leave, except maybe one other person and myself. Then sure enough they miss out on a nice recovery.

sabre · Jun 1, 2009

If you "bail" from a table with great penetration OR awesome rules OR a fast dealer and move to a table with lesser penetration OR lesser rules OR a slower dealer because the current dealer is HOT, then you are a moron.

blackchipjim · Jun 2, 2009

butt kicks

There are a few reasons to leave a table but none that aren't basic to a an ap. I have left tables for various reasons but they weren't because the dealer was hot. I couldn't believe the hands the dealer was getting one after another but that is the nature of the game when the count gets high. You either are the butt kicker or the butt in high counts. blackchipjim

daddybo · Jun 2, 2009

got mine kicked

I wanted to post this for therapeutic reasons. Was playing the other day and losing fairly steady. It was a game with good rules and poor pen, but it was convenient for a little fun. I'm playing along and the TC climbed up really high. What the heck, I throw a very large bet out there... Draw a pair of 8's against a dealer six. I split. Draw another 8.. I split. Draw another 8.. I split.
Four hands now. I hit the first 8. 10. second 8. 10. Third 8. 10. Fourth 8. A.

Next player stands on a 19. the next player has a pair of two's and splits them to three hands by the time he's done...

Dealers turn... Flips the hole card for a King. 16 Showing. Then suddenly I knew the next card. He draws. Yep.. A 5! Ouch.

tfg · Jun 2, 2009

daddybo said:

I wanted to post this for therapeutic reasons. Was playing the other day and losing fairly steady. It was a game with good rules and poor pen, but it was convenient for a little fun. I'm playing along and the TC climbed up really high. What the heck, I throw a very large bet out there... Draw a pair of 8's against a dealer six. I split. Draw another 8.. I split. Draw another 8.. I split.
Four hands now. I hit the first 8. 10. second 8. 10. Third 8. 10. Fourth 8. A.

Next player stands on a 19. the next player has a pair of two's and splits them to three hands by the time he's done...

Dealers turn... Flips the hole card for a King. 16 Showing. Then suddenly I knew the next card. He draws. Yep.. A 5! Ouch.

This was the other day for me, allthough I didn't have that big of a bet out, probably 2x the minimum, it still hurts when it's happening time after time.

DonR · Jun 3, 2009

daddybo said:

I know exactly how you feel, as this is happening to me all the time. I almost feel cursed.

Whenever I push out my bigger bets, I either get a stiff hand and bust, or the dealer finds a way to beat my 19's and 20's with 3, 4, or 5-card 21's.

Getting your ass kicked

tfg

Well-Known Member

creeping panther

Banned

shadroch

Well-Known Member

tfg

Well-Known Member

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member

daddybo

Well-Known Member

Tarzan

Banned

ah...craps

Member

Automatic Monkey

Banned

Tarzan

Banned

Automatic Monkey

Banned

ah...craps

Member

ihate17

Well-Known Member

tfg

Well-Known Member

sabre

Well-Known Member

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member

daddybo

Well-Known Member

tfg

Well-Known Member

DonR

Well-Known Member