Golden 8D Shoe Story

[jimpenn]

I played today and after 4 hours was up $300. As I was coloring up the Shift Supervisor came over to my table and called me off to the side. He was thanking me for a gift I gave him. I happen to be standing next to a $25 min table that just shuffled. Right off the start the shoe turned positive and stayed positive for the entire shoe. We talked for over 10 minutes. A seat was open at the table so I just continued to count and it hit a TC +4 with one deck left. I sat down and placed a black chip out and won. Count continued to rise. I then let the $100 ride. Won. I understand I could have lost, but knowing the remaining high count composition of last three hands not only gave me the confidence to send the money, but also one of the few time I expect to win, but don't get mad when I fail. In addition, you just about immediately know your 19 is a loser. No question in my mind I could increase my EV by daily BC'ing just two shoes a day. I could get away with this today because I have been playing regular for the past 4 months. (5 X Week - 4 Hr Sessions) I can always find someone playing a quarter table I know and could start a conversation with him while he is playing as a method of cover. I believe my chances of survival increase talking to player rather than just standing behind table counting. Any more than two big plays a day would ring too many bells. I'm starting to get "kidding heat" from dealers now about when I insure BJ's and win with big bets out. I rathole $200 green everyday. Only play dealer tables with pen between 75-85. It's to the point I'll buy in the last few rounds of current shoe and refuse to place bet if dealer cuts off more than 1 1/2 6D , 2 8D. I don't care if I broke in for $500 two minutes earlier at a $10 min I'll leave if I don't receive the pen necessary.

I have also given out $25

My point...First time I was able to carry a long conversation with Suit and maintain count back counting. I normally don't include back counting at this local because I play grave yard with same nightly PC. I wong out immediately if shoe is out of control after two decks. (Prior to wonging out I'll take BR break, sweater in car break, etc. but eventually you have to move. I'm all over the place now starting new shoes, and never thought I could get away with adding back counting at local.

I know I'm going to get the tap eventually and have another casino the same distance away that is now dealing a good 8D dealer dependent cut. I visited two days ago just to handicap their current games because when they first opened they had all CSM's that they finally removed. The first time I visited after learning they changed to ASM's the entire casino was cutting 2 1/2 8D shoes. I guess the dealers finally learned their tips go up with better pen from regulars. I'll sign up for a player's card next time at this casino. If you have the patience and long term BR you can earn $100 a day playing minus expenses at both places.

 

[EasyRhino]

hey, just playing at one place 20 hours a week and not getting the tap is pretty good.

Do people wonder if you have a job?

 

[N&B]

I sure don't. At least not where they mint money.

 

[eandre]

Over exposure at any casino will catch up to any AP that pushes any significant amounts, regardless of how good one might think they are, especially on graveyard when things are quiet. Once you are noticed, they simply watch for the spread. Wonging during slow periods is also a bit obvious. Be careful mingling with other players who might be on the AP watch list and you get tagged through association.

 

[jimpenn]

Shift Over-Exposure (Local Casino)

Eandre, all your comments are 100% correct. I have been playing regular (5XWeek) the last two months. Since opening last January I was playing a min of 3 days during week 70% of the time on graveyard (4-12).
Same dealers, PC's, regular players, drink girls, etc. I know and at the same time known by all employees. I should have been "tapped" after the first golden shoe back in January. I believe I'm buying insurance via bottles of Dom, Cuban Cigars, Gift Cards, over-tipping and a pleasant attitude all the time. Many new dealers were breaking-in at this time and continues today. When casino first opened a high percentage of dealers over-estimated their tips when considering the $4.00 hour salary. It has been a revolving door for dealers.

Some experienced players educated new dealers that it's a known fact that in a dealer dependent pen game the deeper the dealer goes the tips follow. I read this somewhere. Well, I believe certain over-tippers can influence 33% of the dealers. Even if it's only 20% of dealers you will always find at least two good games within your betting comfort level with good pen. After a while on the job your relationship grows with dealer he/she will stop calling out "Table Max" by saying "Black Action,etc" Eventually you will find the dealer who never brings up your name in the break room. One time a dealer mentioned in the break room how I was always picking off her BJ's. Of course I would only insure a large bet out during high count hopefully toward the end of the shoe. I knew her well enough to talk to her after I was told of her comments. The PC's also see your a free spending tipper and they want some action. A $25 Sear's Gift Card will do the trick with them. This is where it gets more difficult to advance your survival time. You have to get the top shift dogs (2) One to talk to and one who never wants to talk to you but will take and enjoy your value from Suit you can talk with. This is about as far as you can go in attempting to continue to play locally daily. That is, being a successful counter making money. It sure helps when playing $5 min table and spreading at time to table max. ($500) and being able to start the next shoe off with a $5 bet.

I know it's coming, but its been a great ride. I have found another within reasonable travel time with same game.

 

[EasyRhino]

Oh, it's a new casino, that brings in some unique considerations.

And jim, are you "tipping" or "over-tipping". For me over-tipping specifically means either destroying or substantially degrading your EV so that your risk of ruin increases unacceptably.

 

[eandre]

If you know a back off is coming, why not move to the second casino you mention and test the waters there? It's never advisable to be outed at any property and each back off/barring shortens your counter's shelf life. I dislike being told where I'm welcomed. Even with the proliferation of new casinos the next property may not be quite as tolerant. My guess is that if you are playing that frequently and going to black and table max., they know you count. Today's management may tolerate you but things change. I've been informed of that several times quite recently. As revenues slow at casinos, they are protecting their bottom line even more. As lay off take place in Vegas, these experienced people have begun to move around the country and taking new jobs. They want to please their new bosses, what better way then to pick off a few counters?

 

[jimbiggs]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I believe you are commiting the two biggest errors known to counters. Overplaying one venue and spreading so much that you won't go undetected ($5-$500?). Sounds like a new casino with a clueless pit. I hope you enjoy the ride as long as you can. However, if the place is worth playing, you could play there for the rest of your life with some changes to your strategy.

I've been in your shoes. I know the regret you'll feel once you get the boot. Good luck to you.

 

[jimpenn]

Blackjack Tap

EasyRhino, I do over-tip for pen.

Eandre & jimbiggs both point out valid methods of extending play and I especially jbiggs when he suggests that I tone down play and have my funeral at the casino currently playing. All it would take is rat-holing $200 chips during 4 hour session and cutting spread to 15/20 - 1. I think I will start playing at second location for a few weeks to obtain a better feel for their floor attention, etc. Recently the local that I'm enjoying a good run at published their quarterly report and suffer big loss in revenue. This is with the addition of table games. A local slot casino opened and actually took half their slot players. I noticed it immediately at the tables when just about all the dealers were cutting 2 1/2 - 3 decks off 8D BJ games. I am still able to receive 75-83% pen when I play with at least 1 or 2 dealers I have know for the past six months. In addition, new dealers are constantly being added from around the country as per mentioned in above post. Just yesterday a new German lady was dealing for the first time that had 10 years experience prior to being let go from AC.

Thanks for comments. jp