Hand Win % Using BS

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vonQuux

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I'm wondering what percentage of hands one can expect to win using BS. I'm also wondering what percentage of hands one can expect to win with BS and the Illustrious 18.

I want to be clear on this, though; hands, not money.

I'm sure it isn't too hard to figure out, I just don't know how to calculate it...

vQ
 
R

rollem411

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
You don't give the rules of the game you are playing, but assuming you are playing 6D, S17, DAS and only using Basic Strategy with no errors.

Win = 43.53%
Lose = 47.90%
Tie = 8.57%
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
choubak said:
so here comes the card counting effect to rise that % of win?
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not really. with card counting the % won might increase a little but not much.
the real affectivness of card counting comes in where you get that money out there when you might at least expect more pat hands, more succesful double downs than unsuccesful and more blackjacks and succesful insurance bets. it's a bet affect at the right time ala the count but win/loss remains pretty near the same.
 
C

choubak

Member
#7
#7
sagefr0g said:
not really. with card counting the % won might increase a little but not much.
the real affectivness of card counting comes in where you get that money out there when you might at least expect more pat hands, more succesful double downs than unsuccesful and more blackjacks and succesful insurance bets. it's a bet affect at the right time ala the count but win/loss remains pretty near the same.
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so this means that in the end.. its about increasing bets at the right time so win you win more money that you lost
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
choubak said:
so this means that in the end.. its about increasing bets at the right time so win you win more money that you lost
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you got it. to get ahead counting cards it mainly about betting proportional and optimal to your advantage with respect to your bankroll and desired risk of ruin in such a way that the money you win in the long run exceeds the money you lost on disadvantageous waiting bets and lost advantageous bets as well. this is why you need a big enough bankroll to sustain those loses of those waiting bets and loses of advantage bets which can fluctuate rather wildly. so you need enough to cover those loss's and you need enough to be able to spread your advantage bets according to the levels of advantage that will present up to some maximun bet that you decide is going to be as high as you will bet. so what you do is you proportionaly ramp your bet's according to the degree's of advantage that are likely to present from some minimun bet for you which you call your unit up to your max bet.
and the way that you determine your advantage is tied to that count that you maintain. the higher your true count gets the greater your advantage becomes. where your more likely to get at least pat hands, succesful double downs more than unsuccesful and succesful insurance bets and good old blackjacks.
 
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E

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
sagefr0g said:
not really. with card counting the % won might increase a little but not much.
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Probably the only increase you will get in hands won will be the benefit of using indices in addition to BS but its not going to be a lot.
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
E-town-guy said:
Probably the only increase you will get in hands won will be the benefit of using indices in addition to BS but its not going to be a lot.
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True. But use of double down and surrender indexes will actually decrease the percentage of winning hands, even though they improve EV.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
QFIT said:
True. But use of double down and surrender indexes will actually decrease the percentage of winning hands, even though they improve EV.
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weird, so in the case of the double downs. i guess you lose those more than normal hands but win them more than lose them. :confused:
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
sagefr0g said:
weird, so in the case of the double downs. i guess you lose those more than normal hands but win them more than lose them. :confused:
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If you double down a 9 vs 7, you will sometimes draw a 2. If you had hit instead, you would have another chance to hit. So, you decrease the percentage of won hands. OTOH, you get twice as much money up and still win more often than losing. So, you decrease the percentage of hands won but win more money.
 
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