Has Black Jack Strategy passed its use by date?

[elkobar]

Hi Black Jack enthusiasts,
Thought I might pass this one by you to get your comment;
After playing Blackjack for some time now, and adhering to the strategy, to the letter, I am starting to doubt the mathematical accuracy of the strategy.
I feel that this is one of the reason so many players count cards, they cannot depend on the outcome, simply by playing the strategy alone. There appears to be a hidden advantage that the casino has that we cannot defeat;
My first observation is that the strategy is based on both the player and the dealers cards, both playing out their hands ,and many decisions the player makes is determined by what the dealer has, this I believe is one of the problems, because when the player busts the dealer does not play out their hand,if they did then it would be more truer to the strategy, and you could get many draws.
Example; standing or hitting a 16, the strategy advises that we make this decision based on what the dealer has;
My view is that this is not correct mathematicaly;
Ignoring for a moment what the dealer has;
there are only 5 suits of cards that will benefit this hand, namely; ace,2,3,4and,5; a percentage of 38% in favour, there are 8 suits of cards against, namely, 6,7,8,9,10,jack,queen,and king; a percentage of 61% against, so why do we hit or stand when the dealers card says so ?
We are at a disadvantage taking in the dealers card, because we run the greater risk of busting.
I believe that we should ignore the dealers card, and hit or draw on your own cards value and whether you will bust or not,
I just get tired of busting, by drawing cards simply because of what the dealer has.
Just a thought.
Elkobar..

 

[kprodaniuk]

Not at all

I'm using basic strategy which involves splitting 8's against a face, always hitting 16 against a face and a zen counting system and winning a lot. I write about how well I do everyday at http://mcallister44.wordpress.com/

 

[UK-21]

Hi Black Jack enthusiasts,
Thought I might pass this one by you to get your comment;
After playing Blackjack for some time now . . .

I'm afraid you're thoughts are misled.

BS is based on a full deck/shoe of cards and makes no allowances of what has been played in the past, ie the current composition. Effectively the correct mathematical play for the first hand of the deck/shoe (known as "off the top" or OTT). The best decision is the one with the best mathematical "value", based on what the dealer is showing, what you hold and the combination of cards that may be drawn if you hit. Some of the decisions are borderline and in practice there's nothing in it.

Remember, there are two ways to win a hand - achieving a hand that is nearer to 21 than the dealer, or the dealer busting out. The latter is a big part of the odds, and is why for example it is correct to stand on a 13 against a dealer 6, despite the fact that only five cards out of every thirteen (on average) will bust your hand - there's a greater chance of the dealer busting than you receiving one of these five cards.

Other plays are, again, based on the numbers, ie splitting 8s against a dealer 9. Doing this, and doubling your bet, still leaves you odds on to be a loser although two hands of 8 both have a better chance of one winning than one hand of 16 (effectively you're doubling your bet for better odds of losing less, and with two hands you could win one, lose one, thereby turning an odds on loss into a draw).

Stick with it, and spend your time studying the next levels rather than worrying about whether BS is correct or not.

Good luck.

 

[MeWin$]

Good grief

Frankly, your thoughts are hubris to the numerous great minds that have advanced all cardcounting and advantage play. There is absolutely NO reason for you to think your opinion is educated or valid but for some reason you do. Your actually going against Basic Strategy and all these sound mathmatical results based only on your anecdotal thughts and 'evidence?'
Good grief.
Oh well, it's beliefs like this that keep me employed

 

[blackjacktilt]

After playing Blackjack for some time now, and adhering to the strategy, to the letter, I am starting to doubt the mathematical accuracy of the strategy.


I think what you need is a "straight to the point" answer...
Blackjack is a casino game, casinos do not put games on the floor that lose.
Basic Strategy and counting helps decrease that edge and push it in favor of the educated player with discipline and a bankroll.

 

[21gunsalute]

If you employ perfect basic strategy the odds are still not in your favor. The odds will still be very slightly in favor of the house. You will lose less or lose more slowly over the long run compared to not employing basic strategy, but you still need to be able to count and/or shuffle track to give yourself an advantage over the house.

 

[Jack_Black]

My view is that this is not correct mathematicaly;
Ignoring for a moment what the dealer has;
there are only 5 suits of cards that will benefit this hand, namely; ace,2,3,4and,5; a percentage of 38% in favour, there are 8 suits of cards against, namely, 6,7,8,9,10,jack,queen,and king; a percentage of 61% against, so why do we hit or stand when the dealers card says so ?
We are at a disadvantage taking in the dealers card, because we run the greater risk of busting.

there are no "Views" or opinions with math. it is either right or wrong.

16v10 is a terrible position to be in. It is about .01% better to hit than stand. then all the count has to do is reach 0, in which case it will be about .01% better to stand than hit. which is why if surrender is available you must take it.

 

[bigplayer]

Just a thought.
Elkobar..

Perhaps you should quit thinking as it's doing you no good at all.

 

[elkobar]

Has Blackjack Strategy passed its use by date ?

Hi Blackjack Enthusiasts,
Thanks for your replies, very interesting thoughts on the subject.
It would appear that counting cards is the only way to beat the house, and as the casino here uses 6 decks in a CSM, then winning is a bit rare.
It is true that the house does not have games that favour the player, that is not good business, but it seems that as the house has only a 1/2% advantage over the player, and the dealer has no choices other than to recieve 1 card, and hit 16 or stand on 17, and the player has many choices,that are suppose to enhance the chance of winning, the player still gets beaten repeatably, this does not make sense;
Elkobar..

 

[sabre]

Hi Blackjack Enthusiasts,
Thanks for your replies, very interesting thoughts on the subject.
It would appear that counting cards is the only way to beat the house, and as the casino here uses 6 decks in a CSM, then winning is a bit rare.
It is true that the house does not have games that favour the player, that is not good business, but it seems that as the house has only a 1/2% advantage over the player, and the dealer has no choices other than to recieve 1 card, and hit 16 or stand on 17, and the player has many choices,that are suppose to enhance the chance of winning, the player still gets beaten repeatably, this does not make sense;
Elkobar..

It makes lots of sense. You have to act before the dealer. If you both bust, you still lose.

If the casino offered games that favored the player, THAT would not be good business.

 

[bigplayer]

Hi Blackjack Enthusiasts,
Thanks for your replies, very interesting thoughts on the subject.
It would appear that counting cards is the only way to beat the house, and as the casino here uses 6 decks in a CSM, then winning is a bit rare.
It is true that the house does not have games that favour the player, that is not good business, but it seems that as the house has only a 1/2% advantage over the player, and the dealer has no choices other than to recieve 1 card, and hit 16 or stand on 17, and the player has many choices,that are suppose to enhance the chance of winning, the player still gets beaten repeatably, this does not make sense;
Elkobar..

You said it yourself, the house has a 0.5% advantage and most players like you distrust basic strategy so they play by intuition or some other bogus method and give up another 1.0 to 1.5% on top of the house advantage magnifying their losses further. Why should it be strange (or not make sense) that players get repeatedly beaten? You lose many more hands than you win with blackjack and require being lucky with double downs and catching blackjacks to make the game close to even.

 

[metronome]

QUOTE: "It would appear that counting cards is the only way to beat the house, and as the casino here uses 6 decks in a CSM, then winning is a bit rare."

Hmm, 6 deck with a CSM. That is a game you should not be playing because that ain't Blackjack, THAT'S GAMBLING !

 

[tensplitter]

The casinos didn't invent the basic strategy tables. The blackjack experts did. The casino would love it if no one played basic strategy and went by their guts.

It's true casinos don't put out games that lose. Blackjack games only lose to card counters. While they may let the small counters slide (except the El Cortez but that's another story), the high rolling card counters get strict scrutiny. They won't care about losing $15 an hour to a recreational counter but they will care about losing thousands an hour to a professional team.

Those basic strategy cards are right only for the first hand of the shoe and for CSMs. Index plays change basic strategy based on the count.

 

[UK-21]

. . . this does not make sense;
Elkobar.

It does. Think of it as in the house and the player play by two completely different rulesets. The player has the option to stand below 17, split, double down and surrender in some cases, as well as receiving 3-2 on snappers. None of these, however, offset the biggest advantage that the house has - the fact that you play first, and even if you both bust out, you still lose.

If you decided to adopt a mimic the dealer strategy, then playing first puts you at a disadvantage of around 7% - a huge house edge.

 

[pogostick]

Hi Black Jack enthusiasts,
Thought I might pass this one by you to get your comment;
After playing Blackjack for some time now, and adhering to the strategy, to the letter, I am starting to doubt the mathematical accuracy of the strategy.
I feel that this is one of the reason so many players count cards, they cannot depend on the outcome, simply by playing the strategy alone. There appears to be a hidden advantage that the casino has that we cannot defeat;
My first observation is that the strategy is based on both the player and the dealers cards, both playing out their hands ,and many decisions the player makes is determined by what the dealer has, this I believe is one of the problems, because when the player busts the dealer does not play out their hand,if they did then it would be more truer to the strategy, and you could get many draws.
Example; standing or hitting a 16, the strategy advises that we make this decision based on what the dealer has;
My view is that this is not correct mathematicaly;
Ignoring for a moment what the dealer has;
there are only 5 suits of cards that will benefit this hand, namely; ace,2,3,4and,5; a percentage of 38% in favour, there are 8 suits of cards against, namely, 6,7,8,9,10,jack,queen,and king; a percentage of 61% against, so why do we hit or stand when the dealers card says so ?
We are at a disadvantage taking in the dealers card, because we run the greater risk of busting.
I believe that we should ignore the dealers card, and hit or draw on your own cards value and whether you will bust or not,
I just get tired of busting, by drawing cards simply because of what the dealer has.
Just a thought.
Elkobar..

Years ago I read a Book . Title >Even with a gun at my head . The author was saying that he would never hit hard 12 through 16 no matter what the dealer up card was. I don't know what % he was giving away ,but was proven wrong against basic stragedy. I also remember a guy called Mr blackjack that held seminars, was implying by using BS you had the advantage over the casino . Both were wrong ,although perfect BS cuts the house edge to .4%. . Then card counting!! Most casinos had no fear & invited known counters in just to get their action . their experts said it was just another betting stragedy for suckers. Look what has happened since then. Casinos had tried to make it against the law to count ,saying it is cheating . Thank god they can only bar you if they suspect you are counting. Dealer hitting A6 & that dreaded CSM is one way the casinos are taking more %. I love guys that play by feel or their own set of rules BLESS THEM!! For they keep the pot full so a few of us can prosper

 

[tribute]

Hi Blackjack Enthusiasts,
Thanks for your replies, very interesting thoughts on the subject.
It would appear that counting cards is the only way to beat the house, and as the casino here uses 6 decks in a CSM, then winning is a bit rare.
It is true that the house does not have games that favour the player, that is not good business, but it seems that as the house has only a 1/2% advantage over the player, and the dealer has no choices other than to recieve 1 card, and hit 16 or stand on 17, and the player has many choices,that are suppose to enhance the chance of winning, the player still gets beaten repeatably, this does not make sense;
Elkobar..

To beat a dead horse:

The house gets a big advantage because you, the player, must act first. All the other player choices, (splitting, doubling, surrender, 3/2 payout on BJ, etc.) only shrink the advantage toward the .50 % you mention. Card counting lets you know when the remaining deck composition puts the odds more in your favor to win the hand, so you put more $$$ down, hoping to make up for the losses. The math may not make sense to you and me, but it makes perfect sense to the people providing the game.

 

[tedloc]

If I remember correctly, Fred Renzy wrote an article and stated that the basic strategy chart, was calculated with a full deck and only 3 cards out of the deck. Your two cards and the dealers up card.
It is quite obvious, that as the cards get played, your basic strategy card would change if it was on a computer.
EX: When all the 10 cards are gone an updated strategy card would tell you to hit your twelve against 4-5-6.

 

[rrwoods]

If I remember correctly, Fred Renzy wrote an article and stated that the basic strategy chart, was calculated with a full deck and only 3 cards out of the deck. Your two cards and the dealers up card.
It is quite obvious, that as the cards get played, your basic strategy card would change if it was on a computer.
EX: When all the 10 cards are gone an updated strategy card would tell you to hit your twelve against 4-5-6.

Of course. This is why BS is to stand 16v10 even though the Hi-Lo index for hitting it is zero: Usually, the cards involved in 16v10 have a total count of -1. (Two tens and a six; or ten, nine, seven.)

 

[dacium]

Hi Black Jack enthusiasts,
I believe that we should ignore the dealers card, and hit or draw on your own cards value and whether you will bust or not,
I just get tired of busting, by drawing cards simply because of what the dealer has.
Just a thought.
Elkobar..

I have always had similair niggling feelings. But simulations don't lie. Luckily for me I am a programmer, so I have programmed my own simulators and calculators, even for 7 table games. The house edge is real and it is beaten by counting.

I believe the reason why counters do so poorly is that most of them are fooling themselves. they think they are counting and scaling properly, but they aren't. If you can't seem to make a profit backcount and only ever play +EV hands. After just 500 you will be with almost certainty in profit. Of course no one actually keeps track of how many hands. I used to backcount until the +EV had gone, then walk away and write down how many hands i played at what EV. Without such information it is impossible to assess if you were unlucky or you were simply betting at the wrong time.

The biggest mistake I know is that people do not keep track of the number of cards drawn and are terribly inaccurate at guessing. I got my wife to count total cards out of shoe and compare my guesses when I first started counting - i was way off far to often. I would judge say 1.25 decks gone when only 0.75 was gone etc. In 6 deck shoes I would judge 4 decks in when only 2.5 decks in. This was a sympton of playing at so many different casinos with different thickness of cards. I have since learned to keep a rough running count (accurate to about 10 cards) of the total cards out of the shoe. this improved my game immensely. It took a long long time to be able to play, count hi/low and count cards out and bet accordingly. I still do not play many variations because I can simply not remember the indexes on top of the hi/low count and shoe card count. I remember the main few but thats it.

The other reason why counters don't make money is they don't really spread enough. most will play $10/$25 per hand and not wong out, which means they should really be spreading to $500. In reality few people do it.

 

[elkobar]

Has Blackjack Strategy passed its use by date?

Hi.
Again to all you Blackjack Enthusiasts,
Thank you for all your replies and advise, much appreciated, I would like to thank especially the following members;
UK-21,Big Player,Tribute,Tedloc,and Dacium, who turned on the light, and gave me a new way of thinking and approaching the game.
The following is my impression of the thoughts of the above mentioned members;
1.The Black jack strategy has been formulated on a full deck of 52 cards less the 3 cards, given to the player and dealer,
2.When each card during the playing is withdrawn from the deck, the strategy should be re-formulated, to maintain accuracy.
3. Card counting is necessary to do 2 things, update and re-formulate the strategy, and allow the player to know when and how much to bet on each hand.
The following is my appraisal, drawn from above;
4. Playing correct strategy ( without counting ) against the CSM is playing the way it was formulated to do, because the CSM has always got virtually
the full 52 cards, in other words the CSM contains always 6 decks complete, less the cards on the table from the last hand, so the strategy can function as it was meant to, you have always got at least 290 odd cards to draw from.

To sum this up, I would say that to play with a shoe,you have to count cards, to adjust and re-formulate your strategy and your bets; Because of the constant changing cards left in the shoe.
And to play on the CSM you play perfect strategy without counting, because
the changing card scenerio is of less concern, because you have 312 cards, less those on the table..
Thanks very much.
Elkobar..