Has Blackjack and counting gone too public to make any money?

CRF · Jun 9, 2011

Ive just started to get into blackjack and also counting at virtually the same time... and i just wonder if its still possible to make enough to cover trips to vegas... and come home with a couple hundred bucks extra at the end of the weekend. Obviously i know that how much you win or lose depends on unit size, but with my br of $3k, ill be strictly at the 5 or 10 min tables.

What i mean by this question is that the casinos arent dumb... and all the publicity counting has brought blackjack, the casinos actually like that its beatable because the majority of people who walk into s casino dont know the game well enough , to where suttle differences make the casino huge money.
For example, i know one of the big things
is that blackjack pays 3 to 2, but the last time i was in vegas, just about every table i went to was 6 to 5, which i believe, correct me if im wrong gives the house like another .5% on top of the avg .5% adv they already have with normal rules. Another one was at a single deck table there was no mid deck entry, so since the count resets so often, the only time u can enter the table is when the count is 0 and it really is just luck of whether the count goes good or bad... obviously u can use some more advaned techniques like shuffle tracking but i havent even begun to get to that yet since i barely have basic strategy down.

Im basically in the same situation as the guy in the movie 21, i just need a little extra money to pay for college, and i am a realist, i know that team play works but big money also attracts alot of attention, and i want to do this for years, and not get barred everywhere in 6 months.

I guess basically what i am asking is, is it worth it to learn this game... and get really good at it, or are all the good tables gone with the times. No biased answers now...

Friendo · Jun 9, 2011

Worth learning? Yes.

Too public these days? No.

I doubt the population of successful counters changes much from year to year these days, so most of the deterioration in game conditions is simply bean-counter casino paranoia, with no connection to public awareness of counting.

Most people have no hope of earning a dime as counters. It is a tough slog requiring a bankroll, discipline, and the nerve to consistently push out big bets in every favorable situation, ahead or behind. 95% of people want instant gratification without risk, and will not continue in the face of gruesome short-term negative variance. The remaining 5% will be gutted by insufficient discipline or funds, leaving a sliver who can turn a profit at this.

Among the new posters here - those who are genuine, and not sockpuppets - the failure rate will probably be less than that among the general public, but most will fail anyway.

Card counting is still possible, and it works. You must read some books, do some simulations of your playing opportunities, believe in the mathematics, and ignore any short-term narrative of wins and losses. I have made very little so far, but I am ahead, and I am able to keep going because I know that short-term results mean nothing - this is how I survived my first 15 hours at the tables, during which I dropped 20 maximum bets.

Good luck.

bronco60 · Jun 9, 2011

You have much to learn, young Luke

What I take from your post, you have a great deal to learn. In fact, if I were you I wouldn't set foot in a casino if I don't know the actual difference in edge between 6/5 and 3/2 bj, for example. Go read all the good books, practice, study and then take your plunge.

Bj isn't today and never was a way to pick up a few extra bucks, so drive that idea from your mind. Learning how to count in a casino can bring you significant money with the right skills and bankroll, though it gets tougher all the time. It can also teach you many things about yourself, and about humans in general.

It's no ATM machine, or if it was, it would be mounted on a bungee cord, hanging over the Niagra Falls.

CRF · Jun 9, 2011

Thanks, im just trying to decide if i should spend some serious time on this, or just focus on school and forget about the whole thing.

Friendo · Jun 10, 2011

CRF said:

Take your desired expectation, by which I mean hourly win rate.

Multiply that number by 6. This is the amount of the maximum bet you'll need to push out in high counts.

Visualize a pile of cash consisting of 20 of these maximum bets. You will lose that amount during some 10-hour stretch several times in several hundred hours of play. Maybe these losses will come after an initial positive streak. Then again, maybe not.

Proceed only if you have money to spare for this activity, and are comfortable leaving it all with the casino. At any time you should probably think of a 50-max-bet chunk of your bankroll as already belonging to the casinos, since there will be a point when they take it.

pit15 · Jun 10, 2011

I would only do it if I were you if you were willing to lose all your money.

With a $3K bankroll you're going to need to play with a pretty high ROR to make your hourly EV worthwhile.

If you can afford to lose it, go for it. If you can't then forget it.

As far as expenses go, a lot of APers don't have them. I don't pay for anything in the casino. Expenses would be a brutal hit to my bottom line. I figure in the last year I've spent around 120 nights in casino hotels, a lot of that on premium nights like friday/saturday. Figuring an average rate of 200-300 bucks a night, that would be $24K - 36K just for rooms. Of course nothing's ever totally free. I had an incident where I showed up at check in and got backed off, and of course there's a cost to playing rated (and this is where all the "should you play rated" debates come about)

For you, my recommendations are as follows:
1) Learn the game well. If you can't play a count game mostly flawlessly then forget it.
2) Put together some money you can AFFORD TO LOSE
3) If you're going to be staying at casinos, get room comps ASAP. I got a 80K bankroll and I can't afford to pay for rooms. You also want to be staying in (decent) casino hotels. Putting up with dumb ploppies and asshole dealers/pits is bad enough. Last thing you want to do is stay in a roach infested motel room. Just because you're going to be maxing out at green action does not mean you can't get room comps. Most casinos are VERY loose with giving out free weekday rooms, even the higher end places. I have cards with ADTs of 0 (they're hot cards, so I been milking promos/comps on them with zero play) and they still get tuesday/wednesday free.
4) Work your way up to getting your EV to at least $20 / hour or so. If you can make $15 / hour delivering pizzas it's hard to justify making $10 / hour with huge variance at the BJ table. Also important: Remember your hourly rate is AT THE TABLE. The amount of time you spend walking around, scouting, waiting for the casino to change the cards or whatever all lowers how much you end up making per hour at "work"

Can you make a few bucks on the side doing this? Absolutely. It will not be any kind of reliable income though. If you need money to pay for college tuition, stick to the government loan programs.

And btw, if you're using the movie 21 as any kind of basis to go about counting cards, you're ****ed before you start. Be prepared to lose 45% of your sessions.

Severity8 · Jun 10, 2011

It's no ATM machine, QUOTE]

Don't tell Paddywhack that :laugh:

Youk · Jun 10, 2011

CRF said:

Focus on school. Blackjack can be something later in life (or for low stakes at your current bankroll). There are very very very few people who can make a living playing blackjack full-time. Plus, if you tire of the game, you haven't advanced your career in any other profession. As you can tell from other posters, a $3k bankroll won't get you very far unless you take a high amount of risk or you make $10-15/hour, which is not comparable to a potential college-educated job.

pit15's advice is also very solid.

alwayssplitaces · Jun 10, 2011

You're better off playing poker with a low bankroll. $3000 should be enough for 1/2 NL. The best way to learn is to play online at first for play money, then for micro stakes. Once you can consistently beat the micro stakes online, you should be good for live poker. Many players at the 1/2 stakes don't take the game seriously, so there's lots of "dead money".

Tarzan · Jun 10, 2011

Blackjack will always make lots of money...

... for the casinos! Most people that attempt counting or any type of advantage play fail, casinos eat up aspiring counters/advantage players for breakfast, chew them up and spit them out. Your typical novice counter has the same chances as the only alter boy available at a Catholic priest convention... which are not good.

Does public information about counting and advantage play have an effect? Sure it does! It gives a glimmer in the eye of those who don't know any better in the general public and makes them think that it's possible to rake some money out of casinos somehow but 99% fail and casinos haul it in left and right, loving all the great press that maybe you can win somehow.

There are reasons why most people fail. There is a unique and combined number of disciplines that all must be adhered to along with the financial requirements. Fall short of the mark on any one area and you are destined to fail. I see some CRAZY sh*t in the casinos on a daily basis and have seen some classic cases of train wrecks by people that THOUGHT they were better than they really were. Dig around and you can find a few stories of people acting irresponsibly, irrationally, lacking appropriate self-control, lacking financial management skills, lacking sufficient knowledge, etc. I see more real-life train wrecks in the casinos than I read about anyplace though because it's not like people are likely to publicly admit, "Yes, I played like a complete idiot with a complete lack of any self-control along with taking excessive and insane risks that assurred my going bankrupt" or "I went in mentally and financially unprepared and failed miserably". You hear instead about all the lucky winners, read about all the blackjack pros and poker pros but seldom hear about all the losers and people that went broke trying for that brass ring that greatly outnumber that small minority.

Understanding some basic counting system that is in itself completely ineffective in today's games is just enough to give you a false sense of security and get you bankrupt in a hurry, giving you the potential to make the casinos a lot more money than the average recreational gambler! You can't play golf for two weeks, having never played it before and expect to go up against Tiger Woods immediately thereafter and win.

All the skill, experience and talent in the world will not overcome an insufficient bankroll to work with and the reverse is also true in which all the bankroll in the world will not help those who lack the proper ability, aptitude, experience, money management skills and self-control. "What is the best way to win a million in a casino?--- Walk in with TWO million!" I saw this someplace and it's quite true! It's an amusing little statement that makes a lot of sense because most people just don't have the appropriate bankroll to play blackjack successfully for a long-term profit. Most others with large bankrolls backing them up will fail for any one of all those other reasons for failure. If it was so easy, everyone would be doing it but there is no easy money and there's nothing free in this world.

Back to that original poster for a moment... I almost forgot about him. Let me see, you are a young kid with a "whopping" $3000 backing you, have no experience, no advanced skills or training behind you but are "currently working on perfecting basic strategy"... Hmmm... Odds are stacked up against you but you are young and can always make more money. Taking something like this on can be a great learning curve whether you win or lose that can add to your life experiences but you needed to hear about the harsh realities of it all beforehand, so you understand just how far you need to go to have any chance of being successful.

CRF · Jun 10, 2011

Thanks all, and 3k was just the amount i decided to set aside, that i would be willing to lose. I only mentioned the movie 21, b/c his motive for playing was money for school. The military is gonna pay for some of my schooling, i just think im gonna need a little more for the higher levels, phd, mba, or whatever i end up going for, its not at all the money i need now.
Ive never really thought about poker because even though ive played it growing up, i am horrible at tells, and i dont ever play "the person" i always end up playing the strength of my hand because i cant bluff. Thats probably why i was attracted to blackjack in the first place, because u play against the house who doesnt have options, and will never make a "wild" play and end up getting lucky.
and as far as alot of people trying and failing is that because they stray from the correct betting ramps and made plays based on emotion rather than the math.
I need to go over standard deviation again, but i watched the science of blackjack, and that made it seem like its impossible to lose (in the long run of course), and when i say long run i mean like years of casual play/ months of putting in some serious hours, if you only play when there is a favorable, or at least neutral count.

pit15 · Jun 10, 2011

Well with $3K i would say in order to make it worthwhile, you'll need to play with an RoR around 15 - 20%

If I were you I'd forget about the long run. Given your circumstances you need to figure out a plan for the short run, and what kind of RoR you're willing to handle. There is a very real chance that even if you're successful at playing with an advantage, you will bust out. You have to decide right now whether or not you can handle that. If you can't say right now "I can lose this $3K and it wouldn't really bother me" then don't do it.

Losing 3K in AP is very easy. I've lost 3 grand in 5 minutes or less numerous times. Even if your max bet is only $100, if you have a split and a double, end up with 2 stiffs with $300 out there and the dealer makes a hand, that's 10% of your money gone already

CRF · Jun 10, 2011

@ Tarzan
Your post makes perfect sense to me about having enough skills, composure to not make stupid decisions, and financial stability.
I guess i should have explained my situation a little bit before asking questions
Heres why i mentioned 3k
If i played at a $5 min table with $5 units with a 1-12 spread, my max bet would be 60, and i have read that your bankroll should be 50 times your max bet to not go bankrupt before at least a little bit of variance comes into play.

I have essentially 6 months of time that i can spend at least 3 hours extra a day learning something, on top of my school committments, then i will have a couple weeks to test out what i have learned, this is when i would pull out the 3k, and then another 6 months of the same to decide if i really want to invest some real money into it.

If a bigger bankroll is needed for just a trial run, please give me advice on what i should be looking at.

i assume it would be a good idea to have $10 units, so when the TC is less than 2 i could bet just a half unit...
so $10... 120 max... $6000 br?

Also what is a good spread? I believe that i read somewhere that 1 to 12 was ok on $5 tables

If i did decide to actually really get into this and make a semi-career out of it, my br would be no less than 30K

Thanks

CRF · Jun 10, 2011

@pit15
losing 3k would probably just bother me enough to give it up and say hey it was worth a shot, but like i just mentioned $3k was just a figurative number used based on what ive read.

So i guess the real question is, what is a good bankroll to start with, assuming i only want to play 5 and 10 min tables the only unit sizes i would think of would be 5 10 or 20?

pit15 · Jun 10, 2011

If you're playing $5 minimum, spread 5 - 100, and bet the $100 with 4 green chips.

A lot of places won't give a **** that you're spreading if your max bet is 100 bucks. If you get backed off betting 100 bucks then the place is a dump.

Don't worry about unit size. Bet as little as you can when the house has the edge or wong out, and figure out your bet ramp for positive counts.

CRF · Jun 10, 2011

Thanks pit15, any advice on how to practice without having access to an actual casino. Ive got plenty of books to read i just need tips on actual ways to sharpen my skills.

halibut · Jun 10, 2011

CRF said:

Hasn't anyone mentioned CVBJ in this thread?

http://www.qfit.com/card-counting-blackjack.htm

Coyote · Jun 10, 2011

halibut said:

Casino Verite BlackJack is a great progarm for practicing your skillz! Also, buy yourself a blackjack mat and a shoe and start dealing out cards and playing out the hands. I don't recommend sitting in the dealer's spot! Sit in different spots to get the feal of the table. Your first time at the real casino will have your heart racing. Hopfully your practice at home will help a LITTLE BIT. Also, set up a difficult hand and practice your actions against different dealer up cards; i.e. A7 vs various dealer up cards, 12s vs 2,3,4,

The game is a great hobby for many here!

Best to ya!
Coyote

paddywhack · Jun 10, 2011

bronco60 said:

It's NOT??? Hmmmm. I'll have to think about that one. My mileage has certaintly varied from that thought.

Severity8 said:

Thanks for the heads-up

Gamblor · Jun 10, 2011

pit15 said:

Not necessarily so, I know of some places that are more protective of their really low tables then slightly higher.

Has Blackjack and counting gone too public to make any money?

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