Help me out...

[tedloc]

According to 'Wizzard of Odds', the dealer will bust 35.67% of the time, when he has a 2 showing. Basic strategy tells you to 'stay' when you have 13 vs. his 12. Doing so, will turn you into a loser 65 times out of 100.
'Wizzard' also tell me that I will bust 39% of the time if I take a hit. My question is: How many of those 61 hands can I expect to win? Can I win more than the 35.67 hands, I win by staying?

 

[GeorgeD]

Since by staying you can only win if the dealer busts, so you can expect to win 35.67% of these hands. If you hit, you can expect to bust and lose 61% of the time. Of the 39% you do not bust sometimes the dealer doesn't bust but beats your hand, so the number of wins will be less than the 61%. I expect that would be less than 35.6% of the time or BS would not tell you to stay

According to 'Wizzard of Odds', the dealer will bust 35.67% of the time, when he has a 2 showing. Basic strategy tells you to 'stay' when you have 13 vs. his 12. Doing so, will turn you into a loser 65 times out of 100.
'Wizzard' also tell me that I will bust 39% of the time if I take a hit. My question is: How many of those 61 hands can I expect to win? Can I win more than the 35.67 hands, I win by staying?

 

[tedloc]

I think you have it backwards

Since by staying you can only win if the dealer busts, so you can expect to win 35.67% of these hands. If you hit, you can expect to bust and lose 61% of the time. Of the 39% you do not bust sometimes the dealer doesn't bust but beats your hand, so the number of wins will be less than the 61%. I expect that would be less than 35.6% of the time or BS would not tell you to stay

George,
When you have 13 in your hand, you will not bust 61%. You only bust 39%, so on 61 of your hands you do not automatically lose. I am trying to figure out how many of those 61 hands, you can expect to win. In other words, using basic strategy is it worthwile, hitting 13 vs dealer 2.

 

[shadroch]

George,
When you have 13 in your hand, you will not bust 61%. You only bust 39%, so on 61 of your hands you do not automatically lose. I am trying to figure out how many of those 61 hands, you can expect to win. In other words, using basic strategy is it worthwile, hitting 13 vs dealer 2.

When you hit with 13, your next card will be one of thirteen. You bust with a nine, ten, jack,queen, king. An Ace, two, three really does not help you at all so you might as well not have bothered to hit. Only a four, five, six, seven or eight will improve your hand enough to now have a better shot of winning or pushing.
Not exactly what you are looking for, but hope it helps.

 

[tedloc]

Thanks

When you hit with 13, your next card will be one of thirteen. You bust with a nine, ten, jack,queen, king. An Ace, two, three really does not help you at all so you might as well not have bothered to hit. Only a four, five, six, seven or eight will improve your hand enough to now have a better shot of winning or pushing.
Not exactly what you are looking for, but hope it helps.

Thanks for the input. Let's continue along your line of reasoning. If you hit your 13 and get the Ace, two, three (which is still a loser, when dealer doesn't bust) you would then stop. The dealer still has the two and will bust 35.67% of the times. I think you have to ask the question: How many times will the dealer and you bust at the same time.

 

[Thunder]

Ted it's pretty close. Once you learn how to card count and their indices you'll see that a little under half of the time, you'll hit that hand.