Higher Risk May Pay Off

[anglinw]

Posts here seem to fall in two camps, the 'play for fun', basic strategy types, and the counters or advantage players. 'For fun' players capitalize on "streaks" while the counter camp takes advantage of high counts. Seems to me, that over 50% of the time, a streak will occur while the count it running high, effectively the same thing.

'By the bookers' will limit their highest bets to 1% of total bankroll with the reasonable goal of not tapping out. They report results in terms of doubling bankrolls fairly often. I would speculate that the 'for fun' types may exceed this 1%, while on a streak (or high count) and occationally do very well, too.

My thought is this:

I don't play Blackjack full time, and my actual table time is very limited for several normal reasons - job, distance, required travel, other obligations. I do count, and I try to follow, exactly, the Basic Strategy for the deck(s) and rules of which I am playing against. After double checking, most books I have read indicate that a full time Blackjack career can be attempted with a $40,000 to $50,000 bankroll. I don't have a $40,000 bankroll. Since this is entertainment, as well as an occational part time income stream for me, I am inclined to play with slightly more risk. On higher plus counts (or streaks), I will often jack my high bet up to maybe 5% of total bankroll. If I am placing winnings, not my original bankroll, in the betting box I may go to 10% (not for the faint of heart). I often start out a gaming trip at a higher limit table than my bankroll can support, according the the proverbial book, with a 2 or 3% minimum bet. This, obviously places my bankroll at higher risk. IF I CAN'T RISK LOOSING MY ENTIRE BANKROLL, I DON'T GO. Should my originial bankroll get sliced by half, I back off and fondle the christmas chips (red & green), playing strickly by the book, for the game, and, betting management.

However, should that lucky streak (high count) come my way before my bankroll takes that 50% dive, I jump on it with both feet, and black chips. On these occations, I have usually (more often than less) seen a substancial gain in my table stake, and total bankroll. On the other hand, I HAVE LOST THE FIRST HALF OF MY BANKROLL IN UNDER TWENTY MINUTES AND IN LESS THAN ONE SHOE!!! I can still play, conservatively and by the book, for the remainder of the trip, most of the time. I have lost my entire bankroll on too many gaming trips to count in my lifetime, almost always due to ignoring rules and lacking discipline, and sometimes just a bad run of cards. It happens.

Overall, loosing trips are limited to, at most 100% of my bankroll, while winning trips for me land in the 1 to 300% profit range. Potential winnings may be theoretically unlimited. Winning trips, for me, do occur slightly more often than loosing trips. Since I don't go to AC or Vegas with the house payment, I don't have to put the money immediately back in the bank to cover the check. When I come home a winner with a double or triple, I pull some cash out, and INCREASE MY BANKROLL for the next trip.

Finally, what I have been able to do recently, that takes the sting out of inevetable loosing trips, is to maintain two seperate bankrolls; the one that goes with me at risk, and the one that stays at home, safe. Fortunately, I have not had two back to back loosing trips this year, em . . yet. I have had several doubles and one triple, which allowed me to increase my bankroll two fold this year. On a triple score last month, I was able to set aside the axilaury bankroll of equal size.

I win more, overall, when I can bet more. I can bet more when I have a bigger bankroll. Just one or two winning trips with smaller, completely expendable money played at slightly hire risk can dramatically increase that bankroll for the next trip. The bigger my bankroll, the less I am inclined to take the bigger risks, while still winning reasonable amounts of mortgage reducing cash.

I fully realize the risk here. It took several trips to AC in the beginning of the year, scapping up a minimal bankroll, out of pocket, for me to get enough to think about a black chip bet. I started over, re-funding the BR out of pocket a couple times, while learning to count and control very high risk betting. I very well may be the recipient of the gaming gods good luck. Only time will tell. This whole concept has worked so far. My bankroll has grown enough for me to back down from the highest risk bets of 10% total BR while on the plus side, thank God!

If anyone got through another lengthy post from me, I'd appreciate any thoughts, stats, or personal experiences you'd like to offer.

 

[SweetAxtion]

Well...I actually agree.

Since April starting with a 9k bankroll I'm at 139,700. I didn't get there by flat betting nor by sticking to the suggested percentage in relation to one's bankroll.

I've only had 12 losing sessions since April during this time. During this time I've had a losing streak of 3 sessions, with a winning streak of as high as 28 in a row. My losing days have been as high as 28k to a low of 6k. My best days have been 18k with an average of 2k/session.

Normally talking about this with most BJ players will bring disbelief or prophetic tales of how my long win streaks will be turned into long losing streaks and in the end whatever bankroll I've accumulated will wither down to nothing.

Perhaps it is this reason why I mentally prepare myself as best as I can and is the primary reason why I enjoy the success that I do. That is, leaving everytime I'm up and losing only what I can afford to lose in a given session.

So in regards to your post...I agree with the premise that one can have success in the manner you describe.

Would I recommend playing in the manner that I do though? Not likely because the discipline it takes to leave a table after one has only won one or two bets over the house virtually is non existent in almost every player I've known.

Playing how I do without discipline...One would lose 139,700 dollars in one night.

 

[BAMA21]

I think the whole thing boils down to your tolerance for risk, both financially and emotionaly. If you can shove out the black and not worry about it or get dustraught if you lose, you'll win more that way.

 

[anglinw]

Unbelievable, almost

SweetAxtion, your post certainly does sound outragious, born of a computer junky with nothing else to do but lie and exaggerate, anonymusly, early in the morning, while nursing a bottle of cheap scotch. Doubt any "computer model" or personal opinion would back it up, within any acceptable deviation.

It does however propetuate the fantastic, mystic allure and addictable attraction that Las Vegas, or gambling in general, has. People generally use, as a base line for judging others, their own experience and observation of others. Unless obvious double talk or impaired speach or sentence formation is displayed, I take others communication at face value until proven conclussively they are full of crap. I take everything I hear with a grain of salt, but don't dismiss claims, until I have good reason.

In 1989, siting at a nickel table in Ballys of AC, I watched some Kid, on his 21st birthday (verified by the Pitboss who carded him) turn a $100 bill into $42,000 in about two hours, while I watched my hundred disappear, playing basic strategy poorly, drunk. I would not have believed it if I had not seen it, but I never forgot it.

My results, year-to-date have been well above average, by most reports. My initial bankroll of $1000, which I have had to rebuild out of pocket twice, has grown to two seperate bankrolls of $6000, while I have pulled out another $7000, eliminating all unsecured debt I have, mostly credit cards. Winning streaks can last one hand, one deck, one trip, or years, as experienced and observed by me, and as reported by the authors of copious books I have read in regards to Blackjack. The same is true of loosing streaks. I too have the propesity to leave the game with minimal looses, and somewhere before what could have turned out to be that $42,000 winning table.

As a regular stock trader, I minimize losses at 7% with a stop limit order and unless a stock is on fire, I take a 25% gain quickly, but I missed Cysco's catoclismic 100,000% assent in a ten year period. I loosly apply the same principals to near perfect blackjack play, with, perhaps, above average results.

My strong suggestion, although potentially inappropriate for a site like this would be to take at least half of your reported winnings immediatedly off the table, and find a peice of property, or a good, stable mutual fund, never to be tapped again until retirement. Or pay down any debt you may have.

My most basic tenent for life in general, and 21 specifically remains to balance fear with greed; equally important is to always maintain discipline. That means taking a sizable bite of a winning streak with real and disciplined high counts, and limiting loses, per table or casino to well below the 100 betting unit level of which I most often hear referenced. Low risk, low gain. In the end we will all win or loose nearly exactly what a computer model says we will, no doubt. My goal is to capitalize, yes with greater risk, when that good incoming tide of cards, verified by an accurate count, wash in, and limit loses when they don't. This requires disipline.

Anyone reporting above average results will always be met with sceptic distrust by some. While I find your post hard to believe in general, others probably feel the same about my reports. I cannot dismiss your claims, however. I know what I have done and report such for the benifit of conversation, speculation, critical revue and fine tuning suggestions. Until I have reason to believe others are posting fictitious reports, I will give them the benifit of a doubt, as I know that my reports are in fact truthful and honest. When I post an error in results, or on theory, and realize it later, I repost with an apology and correction. Better to eat crow quickly than mis-represent facts and stand on it, looking foolish.

I wish you continued good luck.

 

[anglinw]

Correction

I originally reported a "two fold" increase in bank roll for the year. It is actually twelve (12) fold, then devided into two seperate bankrolls.

This is not a lie to cover a lie; just trying to keep honest without confussion.

For me, the dollar amounts are much easier to keep up with, but eitiquite probably dictates measuring result in terms of percentages or betting units.

Sorry for any confussion.

 

[SweetAxtion]

Anglin,

I would be in the exact same shoes as you if I heard a story such as mine. My brother is actually a BJ/Poker dealer and he told my story to his co-workers and they either ignored him or they scoffed and thought that either he was lying or that I was. They just can't believe it.

I have myself paid off my truck (16k), and credit cards (12k). I'm also currently seeking different business investment opportunities and using what I do make instead of using at only at the tables. It's taken my five years of playing to learn all these things.

Also...keep in mind that there was a turning point for me bankroll wise. Only one other time did I ramp it up to 40k and when that dwindled down to 10k last year I got spooked and stopped playing for a few months. This year when I hit 50k I started to play with much more strict stop loss limits (in accordance to what I could tolerate) and the winning sessions kept coming.

In regards to how I do manage to play the way I do...When you mention to take half your winnings off the table...I've run into the problem of how to turn 90k in cash into the bank without running into "problems".

 

[SweetAxtion]

got to run to work Anglin. Look forward to hearing more about your experiences.

 

[anglinw]

Bite the bullet

Even some of the MIT kids dutifully paid their taxes. When you start tripping CTR's at the cash cage, or have to walk around with a legal instrument vouching for your bulging pockets to get on a plane, it really does become unavoidable.

The other less sensible, albeit more attractive option is to buy a safe, and adopt a wait and see attitude about the inevitable tax audit.

I got held up at my local bank on a $5000 cash deposit, having to show ID (FOR A FRIGGING CASH DEPOSIT), and to sign an elledged "for internal use only" form. I just don't know what, if any additional restrictions were put in place by the Patrtiot Act as well. I have also had to produce ID to cash in $5000 or more in chips at the cage. Don't know what that is about either.

I have not tripped a CTR yet. At that point, paying the tax man may be inevitable. Until then or when I feel the need to bank larger sums, I am still winning back lifetime loses. That may not be savy with tax code, but for this year at least, I'll hoard my recouped loses in unreported cash.

 

[SweetAxtion]

Even some of the MIT kids dutifully paid their taxes. When you start tripping CTR's at the cash cage, or have to walk around with a legal instrument vouching for your bulging pockets to get on a plane, it really does become unavoidable.

The other less sensible, albeit more attractive option is to buy a safe, and adopt a wait and see attitude about the inevitable tax audit.

I got held up at my local bank on a $5000 cash deposit, having to show ID (FOR A FRIGGING CASH DEPOSIT), and to sign an elledged "for internal use only" form. I just don't know what, if any additional restrictions were put in place by the Patrtiot Act as well. I have also had to produce ID to cash in $5000 or more in chips at the cage. Don't know what that is about either.

I have not tripped a CTR yet. At that point, paying the tax man may be inevitable. Until then or when I feel the need to bank larger sums, I am still winning back lifetime loses. That may not be savy with tax code, but for this year at least, I'll hoard my recouped loses in unreported cash.

Fortunately in Canada casino winnings are tax free so I'm not worried about that. My concern is more with "them" thinking that the money is laundered money. I've spoken to my bank and they've told me that it should be no problem coming in with 50k and depositing it so long as I sign some forms stating for the record where I got it from....the entire time though I was thinking "YEA RIGHT".

BTW, I'm up to 144,700 today. Another 5k this evening. My record for this year sits now at 87 wins and 12 loses. My next win will bring me up to 100 sessions. Now as Ken Smith has reminded me in a previous thread, my limited play could be considered one long session and that I'm just in a positive variance right now.

I really, really think hard about that because I too know the mathematics and that the numbers don't lie. That is the biggest reason why I'm paying off bills and debt and at the same time positioning myself to have business opportunities in case I do lose my bankroll.

I just hope and pray that my next "100 sessions" don't turn into a 11 wins and 89 losses run.

 

[lagavulin62]

I think having the nerves to take on higher risks and still use good discipline, good judgement as far as money management is probably more important than mastering the most difficult of counting systems. I read the first post and only skimmed the others, so not going to comment on the believablity of the winnings, except to say that if you are willing to take risks you can get some very unbelievable results on either side of the win/loss column. I know I have had my share of good fortune in my short counting career, in fact I am up just over 50 percent, although the dollar figure is not even worth mentioning. if I were to play this game according to what the books suggest for risk of ruin and the quarter kelly system I would literally be betting nickels, the copper ones. we all dream of the day that we have that 6 figure bankroll and can bet the "correct way". until then, if we are not prepared to take on some "responsible risks" then this game is nothing more than an exercise in mathematical gymnastics. for some people thats ok, for me I want to win more than just a few burgers. I would guess that most of the people who have made it as counters spent a good part of their early career overbetting, although I would classify it as "intelligent overbetting". that message comes out clear to me, although it's not specifically stated in their books. we sometimes forget that our advantage is only 1 1/2 to 2 %, so what is that other 98%? may our good fortune continue and never bet more than we can afford to lose.

 

[SweetAxtion]

It is alll about discipline. Case in point, I won 7300.00 the other night. My last session (10 mins) I left being up 200.00 because I wanted to win some shopping money. Without discipline I'd be saying why even bother...