House edge & bet spread

Lowrider

Lowrider

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
All,

I am playing the following game...

H17 NOSUR DAS SPLIT 3x DA2 NORSA 88% to 94% PENETRATION 8 DECK SHOE

I have the house edge calculated at .69% using the calculator on this site but that does not take into account penetration..

1. Does penetration of 88%+ noted above decrease HE?

2. I only have a few grand as BK so I'm looking at a 1-10 spread if possible?
If HE IS .69%, then...
TC <1 = 1 unit
TC 1.5 = 2.5 units
TC 2 = 5 units
TC 3 = 10 units

If this a good spread?

I can't justify increasing at TC 1 if I don't have an edge....does this deep pen lower the STARTING HE BELOW .50%... I don't know the math on that...


THANKS
 
R

revrac

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Lowrider said:
All,

I am playing the following game...

H17 NOSUR DAS SPLIT 3x DA2 NORSA 88% to 94% PENETRATION 8 DECK SHOE

I have the house edge calculated at .69% using the calculator on this site but that does not take into account penetration..

1. Does penetration of 88%+ noted above decrease HE?

2. I only have a few grand as BK so I'm looking at a 1-10 spread if possible?
If HE IS .69%, then...
TC <1 = 1 unit
TC 1.5 = 2.5 units
TC 2 = 5 units
TC 3 = 10 units

If this a good spread?

I can't justify increasing at TC 1 if I don't have an edge....does this deep pen lower the STARTING HE BELOW .50%... I don't know the math on that...


THANKS
Click to expand...

The HE doesn't take into account penetration, thats just the edge if you were playing basic strategy so no the penetration doesn't reduce the starting HE below .5. What it does is allow you more frequent opportunities where you have an advantage and can put larger bets out there. If your worried about variance with a low bank roll and thats why you want to spread less then you should wong out aggressively or backcount.
 
Lowrider

Lowrider

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
If I Wong out at -2 and bet 1-10 spread is this a reasonably bearable game in the long run or is my RoR just too damned high
 
T

tthree

Banned
#4
#4
The HE is independent of penetration. Deeper penetration gives more opportunity. It is impossible to comment on your spread as related to TC without knowing what count you are using. The less you play at a disadvantage the smaller your ramp needs to be to play at an advantage overall. Wonging is very important to the small BR. Also a small BR needs to wait for a 1% advantage to ramp up your bet if you want to keep your RoR low.
 
Lowrider

Lowrider

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Sorry...

Count- high Lo
Indices- big three only
Insurance +3
16 v 10 stand 0
15 v 10 stand +4

With this info and the info of my game and spread and winging above would I be + Ev in this game
 
T

tthree

Banned
#6
#6
Best use of indices

Learn the illustrious 18 indices. These include the most frequently used indices and the ones were your advantage grows the fastest as the indices are exceeded. Make sure to use indices on the conservative side. You are better off using BS than you are using an index prematurely (before it is actually exceeded due to approximation errors in TC determination).

The only exception to this is when it is risk averse to do so. Like insuring a strong hand (BJ or 20) slightly before an index is reached. This "misplay" decreases variance lowering your RoR. Indices that show little gain when exceeded can be raised to lower your RoR especially the ones that double your money at risk. Splitting 88 v T is not wise for the small bankroll. The increase in variance is not worth the small gain in EV. Either way it is a loosing proposition.
 
R

revrac

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
learn at a MINIMUM the ill. 18, and wong out at -1 and a 1-10 spread on a 8 deck game with the rules you stated above and you may earn 1 unit an hour if your lucky and play perfectly, just a guess.
 
Ferretnparrot

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
The initial house edge is the initial house edge, its fixed no matter what kinda game it is in regards to penetration.

The initial house edge is altered as indicated by the count at the given moment that the count occurs.

The probibility of higher counts occuring, and of higher counts occuring more often at the end of the shoe is higher with deeper penetration, so you will have more opportunities to bet and make money.

Thats how it works
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
#10
#10
Lowrider said:
Sorry...

Count- high Lo
Indices- big three only
Insurance +3
16 v 10 stand 0
15 v 10 stand +4

With this info and the info of my game and spread and winging above would I be + Ev in this game
Click to expand...
8D with 1 player I come up with a 44.6% ROR, $8.96/hour and SCORE of 18.09 using Hi-Lo with Sweet 16 & Fab 4 plugged into CVCX @ 88% PEN. I also had to assume a $5 table min since I didn't see your unit size anywhere. Your ROR jumps to 66.7% at the $10 table min.

At the $5 table min if you backcount or wong-in at TC1 the ROR drops to 5.2%. Wong-in at TC2 and ROR drops to 2.2%. The SCORE roughly triples for either wong-in point.

Hope this helps.
 
flyingwind

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
MrSmith said:
8D with 1 player I come up with a 44.6% ROR, $8.96/hour and SCORE of 18.09 using Hi-Lo with Sweet 16 & Fab 4 plugged into CVCX @ 88% PEN. I also had to assume a $5 table min since I didn't see your unit size anywhere. Your ROR jumps to 66.7% at the $10 table min.

At the $5 table min if you backcount or wong-in at TC1 the ROR drops to 5.2%. Wong-in at TC2 and ROR drops to 2.2%. The SCORE roughly triples for either wong-in point.

Hope this helps.
Click to expand...
1. How can you calculate this player's ROR without knowing what the BR size is? I assume ROR is independent of the betting ramp profile and the game rules, rather than on the BR size.
2. Fab 4 should not be included in ROR calc, since the game described has no surrender. The ROR is increased due to exclusion of Fab 4.
3. What would be the ROR, N0, and #hours to double BR with the following play-all spread for OP's 8D H17 NOSUR DAS SPLIT 3x DA2 NORSA, assuming 100 hands/hr heads up play?
TC <=1 = 1 unit
TC 2 = 4 units
TC 3 = 10 units
TC 4 >= 16 units
 
M

MrSmith

Active Member
#13
#13
flyingwind said:
1. How can you calculate this player's ROR without knowing what the BR size is? I assume ROR is independent of the betting ramp profile and the game rules, rather than on the BR size.
2. Fab 4 should not be included in ROR calc, since the game described has no surrender. The ROR is increased due to exclusion of Fab 4.
3. What would be the ROR, N0, and #hours to double BR with the following play-all spread for OP's 8D H17 NOSUR DAS SPLIT 3x DA2 NORSA, assuming 100 hands/hr heads up play?
TC <=1 = 1 unit
TC 2 = 4 units
TC 3 = 10 units
TC 4 >= 16 units
Click to expand...
1) His original post states his bankroll is a couple thousand. I used $2000. :
2) True. I cringe when I think what his current ROR is. This was just meant to give a general idea of what to expect.
3) I'm too lazy and don't really have the time right now. Maybe later. :) What bankroll, indexes and unit size?
 
B

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
MrSmith said:
1) His original post states his bankroll is a couple thousand. I used $2000. :
2) True. I cringe when I think what his current ROR is. This was just meant to give a general idea of what to expect.
3) I'm too lazy and don't really have the time right now. Maybe later. :) What bankroll, indexes and unit size?
Click to expand...
The original poster is obviously not a serious player...his Risk of Ruin is 100% and mathematics is a total liar in this case because you know if he wins he's gonna probably spend that money and that essentially makes him a certainty to bust out. (ROR based on total reinvestment). In reality ROR is irrelevant here, if he loses $2,000 he is not really ruined...he has tapped out what is essentially nothing more than a session bankroll.

He should study more and save up money more to have a real shot...or just backcount until he has a +2 True Count and bet the True Count in $10 units x two hands (i.e., at +7 bet 2x$60) and hope the chips multiply rapidly.

The best thing that can happen to this guy is to win big or bust out quickly so that he can get on with the rest of his life.
 
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