How bad is this promotion for Blackjack Players

M

mrbill

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
A local casino is having a promotion the month of July.

For Slot players every 100 points gets a ticket for a 6 pack of Pepsi or Diet Pepsi. It's takes 500 credits to earn a point so that 6 pack will cost $500 in action to get.

For BJ players they need to get a "Natural" Blackjack to get a ticket. The kicker is they define a "Natural" Blackjack as the Ace and Jack of Spades. If I am remembering correctly about 1 of every 21 hands is expected to be a BJ and 1 of every 4 of those would be suited. Then 1 of every 4 of those would be suited in Spades. Then 1 of every 5 of those would be the Jack of Spades. By my calculations that works out to 1 in every 1680 hands or $8400 in action at a $5 table.

I know that Blackjack is the lowest house advantage in the casino but it's not that much lower than slots, is it?

Are my calculations wrong or are they screwing the blackjack players again?
 
I

InPlay

Banned
#4
#4
mrbill said:
A local casino is having a promotion the month of July.

For Slot players every 100 points gets a ticket for a 6 pack of Pepsi or Diet Pepsi. It's takes 500 credits to earn a point so that 6 pack will cost $500 in action to get.

For BJ players they need to get a "Natural" Blackjack to get a ticket. The kicker is they define a "Natural" Blackjack as the Ace and Jack of Spades. If I am remembering correctly about 1 of every 21 hands is expected to be a BJ and 1 of every 4 of those would be suited. Then 1 of every 4 of those would be suited in Spades. Then 1 of every 5 of those would be the Jack of Spades. By my calculations that works out to 1 in every 1680 hands or $8400 in action at a $5 table.

I know that Blackjack is the lowest house advantage in the casino but it's not that much lower than slots, is it?

Are my calculations wrong or are they screwing the blackjack players again?
Click to expand...

When will all the stupidy stop about counting a promotion as stupid as this. If you have to count this in your EV you are one sick puppy and should not even be going to a casino. Kroger stores runs special 3 6 packs 16 oz for $10. Save your gas money and go to Kroger.


(Dead link: http://michigan.inserts2online.com/customer_Frame.jsp?divID=018&drpStoreID=00650)
 
M

mrbill

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
I couldn't care less about the promotion. I don't drink Pepsi products anyway.

I am only interested in knowing if my numbers are anywhere near correct.
 
M

mrbill

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
InPlay said:
When will all the stupidy stop about counting a promotion as stupid as this. If you have to count this in your EV you are one sick puppy and should not even be going to a casino. Kroger stores runs special 3 6 packs 16 oz for $10. Save your gas money and go to Kroger.


(Dead link: http://michigan.inserts2online.com/customer_Frame.jsp?divID=018&drpStoreID=00650)
Click to expand...
According to the Find a Store link on that page there are no Kroger stores within 50 miles of my zip code. That means going to the casino would cost me less in gas than any Kroger store.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
mrbill said:
For Slot players every 100 points gets a ticket for a 6 pack of Pepsi or Diet Pepsi. It's takes 500 credits to earn a point so that 6 pack will cost $500 in action to get.
Click to expand...
That sounds right. If each "credit" is one penny then the total action required for the bonus is 100 * 500 * $0.01 = $500.

mrbill said:
By my calculations that works out to 1 in every 1680 hands or $8400 in action at a $5 table.
Click to expand...
I get about 1-in-1326 hands for SD and 1-in-1339 hands for DD. The action required for BJ would be 1326 * $5 = $6,630.

That's a pretty big difference, but let's look at the actual EV for each bonus. Playing SD BJ we expect to lose $6,630 * 0.002 = $13.26. That's not too bad. But assuming the slots have an 8% house edge (92% payback) you would expect to lose $500 * 0.08 = $40. That ain't so great. Even with a house edge of only 3% (97% payback) you'd still expect to lose $15. Playing BJ will require a much bigger time commitment but the overall EV is bigger than playing slots. If you look at the hourly EVs you would see a much bigger difference since the slot promo is played through so much faster than the BJ promo.

-Sonny-
 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
mrbill said:
Are my calculations wrong or are they screwing the blackjack players again?
Click to expand...
Do you really need calculations to tell you that the casinos are screwing, or at least attempting to screw, blackjack players?

The whole concept of a casino is to find ways to screw people. The business model revolves around suckers, addicts, and morons.

mrbill said:
I am only interested in knowing if my numbers are anywhere near correct.
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Ignore the criticism - there's a value to answering your question, and the answer is yes, you have correctly calculated the EV of the offer - the probability that you'll win multiplied by the amount you win; subtract the probability that you'll lose multiplied by the amount you lose. I didn't check the numbers but you appear to have done the math correctly.

It's important to note that the best possible scenario (100% win) will lead to an EV of your win - in this case a 6 pack of soda. That is why everyone's bagging you for posting this: mathematically, the value of the offer is, at most, $2-3.
 
I

InPlay

Banned
#9
#9
mrbill said:
According to the Find a Store link on that page there are no Kroger stores within 50 miles of my zip code. That means going to the casino would cost me less in gas than any Kroger store.
Click to expand...
Try Meijer
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
The BJ player in theory can win this promotion on his first hand.If it takes $500 in action for the slot player to get a six pack,that same $500 on a $5 table could result in two or three naturals.The odds are against it,but its possible.Its impossible for the slot player.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
mrbill said:
I know that Blackjack is the lowest house advantage in the casino but it's not that much lower than slots, is it?
Are my calculations wrong or are they screwing the blackjack players again?
Click to expand...
BJ house edge is enormously better than slots lol. Like in Sonny's example of 0.002 for BJ and 8% for slots, it's 40 times better lol.

Sonny's numbers I think are right, surprise, surprise lol. There are only 1326 2-card combinations in a single deck without regard to the order of the 2 cards (=combin(52,2) in Excel if you're interested.) And only 1 of those would be an Ace and Jack of spades lol. You don't even have to worry about how often BJ's occur that way.

But, again using Sonny's example, and say a 6-pack is worth $3, what the heck, that HA of 0.002 has been reduced by about 25% lol. That ain't bad lol.

Simpler is drink a free beer an hour and make it + EV :)
 
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