The learning curve vs the failure rate
Though I have no stats to back up my following statement, I do guess that perhaps something close to 90% of the people who at least pick up a book or check a web site about cardcounting (or see a movie) and attempt it, fail and give up. In that process they increase casino profits. The failure reasons are many fold. Many people find this to be work and they feel that they do not go to a casino for work. Others will be killed by lack of bankroll, lack of learning the basics and going to the casino well before they are prepared. Negative variance and the swing of negative variance on a high count, will convince others it just does not work. For those who last a little longer the failure to properly spread will take their money often but perhaps slower.
Then for those who start off with some positive variance we have overbetting because of false confidence and the understanding of how casinos work, how they are all a little different and the ability to have that sixth sense that tells you to leave before you are asked to do so.
Then there is the time it actually takes to become proficient and this especially goes for playing in locations that encounter cardcounting often, like Vegas. Can you converse with the pit, waitress, dealer and other players and quickly glance at the cards, get your count and make the correct plays in a flash? Can you do this in a pitch game where you are only seeing some of the cards till the hand is over? Can you apply all the indices you know while this is happening? Can you do this and look like another gambler and not a tennis fan watching every card hit the felt? Can you take it when they are kicking your butt and keep putting the money out when you know you have an advantage (this is big)?
These and perhaps a ton of other things I have not thought about this morning, leave me to firmly believe that casino blackjack profits will go up for a period of time. In fact the few individuals who may be spurred on by a movie to become proficient counters will never effect that casino bottom line. If, for instance, I go to Vegas and take 20,000 from multiple high scale strip properties, it has no effect on them. But if I thought I could take it from downtown places like El Cortez, where it would effect their bottom line, I would be stopped.
The only danger for casino profits might come further down the road if the movie causes more blackjack teams to be formed with good controls and leadership, (their are all sorts of pitfalls internally in blackjack teams that make many start up teams complete failures). That today is basically the only blackjack threat to them and tomorrow it will still be the only threat. The casino that gets hit by an individual counter for high 6 or 7 figures deserves it and it does not happen very often I think. If they can not recognize the play of someone betting in the tens of thousands, they certainly deserve what they get, but I believe at that level, any casino that takes that kind of action must have someone who can stop the action.
Now all this said, and if I am correct, that still does not mean that all casinos will be totally unparanoid about the movie. They live in a very paranoid universe and at the beggining it might be interesting to see how different places react if at all. Later they will tend to play follow the leader.
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