how much advantage of Aces

[moo321]

I have defined my terms very clearly, but what i should probably do is not to respond to people who think they know it all and continuously post erroneous information condescendingly , and who have never heard of the term "ace neutral count".

Wait, what? You're saying side counting aces isn't important in pitch games when your count doesn't render the ace?

 

[iCountNTrack]

Wait, what? You're saying side counting aces isn't important in pitch games when your count doesn't render the ace?

Yes, that is exactly what i am saying, very little increase in SCORE is achieved when you include an ace side count for betting purposes in a pitch game using an ace-neutral count.
The ace side count for betting is more important for shoe games especially at deep penetration.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration7.htm

 

[moo321]

Yes, that is exactly what i am saying, very little increase in SCORE is achieved when you include an ace side count for betting purposes in a pitch game using an ace-neutral count.
The ace side count for betting is more important for shoe games especially at deep penetration.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration7.htm

It really depends on the pen, rules, etc. With greater pen, you will get much larger gains from an ace side count.

 

[Martin Gayle]

Beyond BJ, how are you coming to up with the figure of 10% better chance of recieving an Ace? Is it just an Ace heavy deck? Does the dealer have a 10% better chance of gaining an Ace at this time as well? How are you calculating this?

 

[1357111317]

Lets say you were sidecounting aces and there were 3 decks played and there were 15 aces left. This means that 9.6% of the cards remaining to be played are aces. If you had no other knowledge of the cards that had been played how would you calculate your advantage or disadvantage at this point? For simplicities sake 6D H17 DAS RSA.

 

[taipafan]

if next hand have 10% larger chance to get an Ace

how much advantage can i get ?

From my CSM ace tracking study, I got 1/11.5 chance of getting an ace on the first card, that is about 0.5% improvement.

 

[k_c]

Lets say you were sidecounting aces and there were 3 decks played and there were 15 aces left. This means that 9.6% of the cards remaining to be played are aces. If you had no other knowledge of the cards that had been played how would you calculate your advantage or disadvantage at this point? For simplicities sake 6D H17 DAS RSA.

To get the following EVs I started with 6 decks with rules H17, DOA, split to 4 hands on both aces and non-aces, DAS for non-aces, NDAS for split aces, 1 card to split aces, no surrender, full peek

1. Removed 12 of each rank (1-9) and 48 tens (156 cards left = half shoe)
2. Added 3 aces
3. In order to keep shoe = half shoe and aces=15, 3 non-aces need to be removed
4. Broke non-aces into 3 groups (2-5), (6-9), (10,J,Q,K)
5. Removed 1 from each group
6. Since 10,J,Q,K are equivalent, there are 16 possibilites of removal of 1 card from each group

2-6-10, 3-6-10, 4-6-10, 5-6-10, 2-7-10, 3-7-10, 4-7-10, 5-7-10
2-8-10, 3-8-10, 4-8-10, 5-8-10, 2-9-10, 3-9-10, 4-9-10, 5-9-10

EVs for resulting 156 card slug with 15 aces with 1 ten and each differing sets of non-tens removed are (using basic strategy):
2-6-10 +.2227%
3-6-10 +.2439%
4-6-10 +.2965%
5-6-10 +.3307%

2-7-10 +.1444%
3-7-10 +.1668%
4-7-10 +.2173%
5-7-10 +.2528%

2-8-10 +.0543%
3-8-10 +.0744%
4-8-10 +.1255%
5-8-10 +.1613%

2-9-10 -.0074%
3-9-10 +.0126%
4-9-10 +.0648%
5-9-10 +.1003%

Full shoe EV (basic strategy): -.5514%
Average EV for above: +.1538%
Additional aces increases EV ~.7%

Actual compositions could vary wildly from above, some yielding +EV and some -EV but the more wild a composition is, the less likely it is to occur. The most likely composition is what is represented above.

 

[1357111317]

Thats a lot K C that was very helpful. Can you extrapolate that .7% for each additional increase in aces per deck or is the increase in the advantage non linear?

 

[k_c]

Thats a lot K C that was very helpful. Can you extrapolate that .7% for each additional increase in aces per deck or is the increase in the advantage non linear?

No big deal but it might be more accurate to say the extra aces in the example increased EV by ~.6% rather than ~.7% because EV for 156 cards consisting of 12 (A-9) and 48 tens is -.4457% for your desired rules. I used the full shoe EV of -.5514% for the comparison.

I went a little further and computed a 156 card slug dealt from 6 decks with no aces removed. I used the composition 11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-44-24 (2 through ace.) EV using basic strategy for this slug = +1.9079%.

So EV for 1 extra ace per deck was ~+.1538%
EV for 4 extra aces per deck was +1.9079%

It looks like each extra ace/deck is worth ~.6% and it seems to be pretty linear.

This is using basic strategy. If composition was 11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-44-24, for example, it would be better to hit 11 v 10 rather than double but the calculation assumes doubling since that is basic strategy.

 

[1357111317]

Hmm.. that is some very helpful stuff there. My guess is that when you add a couple extra 10s to that mix then that advantage skyrockets?