I don't see the advantage of a high count?
- Thread starter yoyoyoyo
- Start date
Most of your advantage comes from the fact that if the dealer has blackjack you lose your wager, but if the player has blackjack you win 1.5 times your wager.
Why on earth would you double down on a 15 anytime? The best thing to do with a true count of -10 is not play. The best thing to do with a true count of -2 or more is not play.
Why on earth would you double down on a 15 anytime? The best thing to do with a true count of -10 is not play. The best thing to do with a true count of -2 or more is not play.
kewljason said:
Most of your advantage comes from the fact that if the dealer has blackjack you lose your wager, but if the player has blackjack you win 1.5 times your wager.
Why on earth would you double down on a 15 anytime? The best thing to do with a true count of -10 is not play. The best thing to do with a true count of -2 or more is not play.
Why on earth would you double down on a 15 anytime? The best thing to do with a true count of -10 is not play. The best thing to do with a true count of -2 or more is not play.
kewljason said:
I said "most" of the advantage. lol Yes the dealer will bust on more of his stiffs , but he will actually have fewer stiffs. Just like the player will be successful on a higher percentage of his doubledowns , but he will actually have fewer doubledown opportunities.
, but he will actually have fewer stiffs. Just like the player will be successful on a higher percentage of his doubledowns , but he will actually have fewer doubledown opportunities.
Can the dealer double down on 11? Does the dealer have a choice to stand on 16 when most of the 4's and 5's are gone? Does the dealer get paid 3/2 on blackjack? Think about it.
When the count is negative you are less likely to get a good card on your doubles, less likely to get a blackjack and the dealer, who gets to go last or doesn't have to hit at all after you've already busted out, is more likely to get a 5 on his/her 16.
When the count is negative you are less likely to get a good card on your doubles, less likely to get a blackjack and the dealer, who gets to go last or doesn't have to hit at all after you've already busted out, is more likely to get a 5 on his/her 16.
Jason, you forgot the other good stuff...
...Like losing six or seven max bets in a row against the dealer's stiffs and he decides he is David Copperfield and somehow draws the only small cards left in the pack.
You also forgot the mention all the blackjacks the ploppy in the next seat gets that "should have been mine" in high counts.
Card counting sure is fun! Sometimes doubling with a hard 15 or 16 starts to look like a good idea.
Jeez, I love this crap.
Cobbson:whip:
kewljason said:
Yes the dealer will bust on more of his stiffs (
(
You also forgot the mention all the blackjacks the ploppy in the next seat gets that "should have been mine" in high counts.
Card counting sure is fun! Sometimes doubling with a hard 15 or 16 starts to look like a good idea.
Jeez, I love this crap.
Cobbson:whip:
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You get 150% from Blackjack while dealer only gets 100%. Also the higher TC goes, you increase your frequency of doubling down and split while the dealer can always only play one hand. For example, when true count is high, you double A7 against 2, A6 against 2, A8 against 6, A8 against 5, A8 against 4, 9 against 2, 9 against 7, 8 against 6 etc.
No one SAID it would be easy. (well; Hollywood implies as such :laugh
The advantage gained by card counting is so tiny that no one can actually SEE the advantage; not without keeping meticulous win-loss records for long periods of time. If you were to follow a card counter around for a month, after seeing all the up & down swings he would be taking; you would probably come to the conclusion that card counting is bull-crap!
Yes; the advantage is THERE, for the reasons given by Jason and the other previous posters, but again; it's only a TINY advantage.
But when it comes to gambling, don't underestimate the power of "tiny". To a card counter; the word "tiny" actually means "HUGE".
The advantage gained by card counting is so tiny that no one can actually SEE the advantage; not without keeping meticulous win-loss records for long periods of time. If you were to follow a card counter around for a month, after seeing all the up & down swings he would be taking; you would probably come to the conclusion that card counting is bull-crap!
Yes; the advantage is THERE, for the reasons given by Jason and the other previous posters, but again; it's only a TINY advantage.
But when it comes to gambling, don't underestimate the power of "tiny". To a card counter; the word "tiny" actually means "HUGE".
And let's not forget insurance!
Lets consider the most extreme case and it'll all be clear. Lets say the TC is +52... Nothing but Aces and tens in the deck. Pretty much the ONLY way the dealer can win is if he deals himself a 10-up blackjack. If he shows an ace up, you buy insurance or take even money... If it turns out he doesn't have it, you split and resplit whatever you had (if it wasn't a blackjack) and double on all soft 21's, cause you know he has A, A and HE can't split them... He needs six aces before getting 2 tens in order to not bust. If he shows a 10 up (after checking his hole) you would still split and resplit as mauch as possible, and double the soft 21 if you want (but you CAN lose the double in this situation).
Can you see the advantage now? The higher the count, the closer you come to this situation.
Lets consider the most extreme case and it'll all be clear. Lets say the TC is +52... Nothing but Aces and tens in the deck. Pretty much the ONLY way the dealer can win is if he deals himself a 10-up blackjack. If he shows an ace up, you buy insurance or take even money... If it turns out he doesn't have it, you split and resplit whatever you had (if it wasn't a blackjack) and double on all soft 21's, cause you know he has A, A and HE can't split them... He needs six aces before getting 2 tens in order to not bust. If he shows a 10 up (after checking his hole) you would still split and resplit as mauch as possible, and double the soft 21 if you want (but you CAN lose the double in this situation).
Can you see the advantage now? The higher the count, the closer you come to this situation.
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Your chances of getting a double down are reduced if there are more tens in the deck. That's just common sense. Obviously, if you do get the double down combination in a high count situation, then your chances of getting the ten on top of it is greatly increased.
As far as splits go. Other than splitting tens, your chances of getting split numbers will not be great either. And most alterations in play based on a very high count, only call for the split of tens against a five or six, which isn't gonna happen all that often either with a remaining shoe full of tens.
Are you more likely to win more double downs and split tens with high counts? Absolutely, but you are not gonna get more of them compared to low count situations. Even if you factor in the alterations in play (splitting tens, doubling on 11 vs. A, doubling on ten vs. A or ten, doubling on 9 vs. 2 and 7, doubling on 8 vs. 5 or 6)
kewljason said:
Selective memory! You just aren't recalling the times things work out as they should. We gotta work on your negativity, Mr Cobb.
PS-- j/k IKWYM
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He didn't say the splits and doubles would come more often, he said they would be more of an advantage. a high or low count dosen't have anything to do with the 7-8-9 count. The dealer just has a higher risk of busting on a high count. using the same B.S. if the situation calls for a split 2 9's vs dealer 5 or 6, your odds are better in a high count.
What does this mean then? "the frequency of splits and double down increase for them (APs)"
The frequency does not increase with more tens in the deck.
Splits won't happen as often because you are more likely to be going up against a dealer ten when you get them. And again, your chances of getting two low cards of the same number are not as good. You talked about the neutral cards. Well most alterations in play will call for a surrender of eights against a ten on a high count, so one of those neutral card splits is actually taken from you in that situation, while your ploppy buddy gets to do it to his own disadvantage.
Yes, you will have more double downs and splits than a ploppy in that situation due to the alterations in play due to counting, but the overall frequency of them DOES NOT increase.
The frequency does not increase with more tens in the deck.
Splits won't happen as often because you are more likely to be going up against a dealer ten when you get them. And again, your chances of getting two low cards of the same number are not as good. You talked about the neutral cards. Well most alterations in play will call for a surrender of eights against a ten on a high count, so one of those neutral card splits is actually taken from you in that situation, while your ploppy buddy gets to do it to his own disadvantage.
Yes, you will have more double downs and splits than a ploppy in that situation due to the alterations in play due to counting, but the overall frequency of them DOES NOT increase.