I Just Can't Lose!
- Thread starter StandardDeviant
- Start date
I guess I'm on my own. Whatever happened to chivalry? 
Last edited:
StandardDeviant said:
Another losing session yesterday. I was down 58 units after just 60 minutes of play. For the game I was playing, this is about a -2.2 standard deviation outcome, with a probability of ~ 1.5%. I did move on to a second casino where I ended up 30 units, for a net outcome of -28 units after ~2.5 hours play.
No big deal, of course, except this is my 10th losing session in a row, and I am down about 400 units overall - about a third of my bankroll. I replenish a portion of my BR each month, so there is no immediate problem there -- but I must say the whole thing is getting a bit tedious...
No big deal, of course, except this is my 10th losing session in a row, and I am down about 400 units overall - about a third of my bankroll. I replenish a portion of my BR each month, so there is no immediate problem there -- but I must say the whole thing is getting a bit tedious...
At what point, might you think you might have a problem despite a constantly replenishing roll? When does it become more than "tedious"?
What does your sim say about your risk to your replenishing roll of some amount at some regular interval of time from this point forward, risk to begin with, etc while playing 6 and 8D games both head-on and at full-tables while wonging-out at TC-1?
You may actually be a girl and I actually am I guy but you may likely have cahones way way bigger than mine, I'll give you that.
Be careful outthere girlfriend lol.
I do use a sim, but I haven't really looked into the long term health of my replenished bank roll. I will say, however, that I replenish only 50 units a month. So if I lose more than that over an extended period, I will have a problem.
My BR is down 25%. If it goes down another 25% I'll have some real soul searching to do.
My BR is down 25%. If it goes down another 25% I'll have some real soul searching to do.
I am relatively new too, only playing about 1 year. I used to play all, but about 2-3 months ago I started wonging out at TC-1. I do notice that the wonging out helps.
I'm sure I am still making some mistakes, but I would say that I'm not making big mistakes, or if I am, I'm unaware of them.
I'll give it some more time, but not a lot more time. The probability of having this many (i.e., 10) losing sessions in a row is, well, pretty low - about 1% I think.
I'm sure I am still making some mistakes, but I would say that I'm not making big mistakes, or if I am, I'm unaware of them.
I'll give it some more time, but not a lot more time. The probability of having this many (i.e., 10) losing sessions in a row is, well, pretty low - about 1% I think.
Wrong Bet Strategy
I was reading this thread
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16351
which made me think that I have been making a mistake in my betting.
I have been using the cover of not decreasing my bets after wins and not increasing my bets after losses (plus keeping my bets the same after pushes).
This of course sometimes keeps me from having bigger bets out was the count increases, and/or having too big of a bet out when the count has gone back down -- all for the sake of some cover.
Is this a mistake when playing at the red/green levels?
I was reading this thread
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16351
which made me think that I have been making a mistake in my betting.
I have been using the cover of not decreasing my bets after wins and not increasing my bets after losses (plus keeping my bets the same after pushes).
This of course sometimes keeps me from having bigger bets out was the count increases, and/or having too big of a bet out when the count has gone back down -- all for the sake of some cover.
Is this a mistake when playing at the red/green levels?
Thanks guys. This is very helpful. In retrospect, I think I've been too influenced by Andersen's writing in Burning the Tables. I know that he was talking play way above my level, but I thought that I should apply some of the concepts to me.
I'm coming to realize, with your help, that I've taken things too far and I am wasting the small advantage I may have. No wonder I've seen these small losses instead of the small gains I should be expecting. :whip:
Thank you.
I'm coming to realize, with your help, that I've taken things too far and I am wasting the small advantage I may have. No wonder I've seen these small losses instead of the small gains I should be expecting. :whip:
Thank you.
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover1.htm
This page doesn't tell you that much. READ ON. Pages 2-7 are very illuminating. If you have not read this book, I recommend you do so.
This page doesn't tell you that much. READ ON. Pages 2-7 are very illuminating. If you have not read this book, I recommend you do so.
0.06071%
That's the probability of losing 11 sessions in a row...assuming a house advantage of 1%. 0.03910 is the probability for an advantage player. We're talking hundredths of a percent here!
Who could defy the odds and achieve that kind of outcome? Well, me. My 11th losing session in a row occurred today. Again, not a big loss, but a loss nonetheless.
This is getting really, really difficult to endure...:cry:
That's the probability of losing 11 sessions in a row...assuming a house advantage of 1%. 0.03910 is the probability for an advantage player. We're talking hundredths of a percent here!
Who could defy the odds and achieve that kind of outcome? Well, me. My 11th losing session in a row occurred today. Again, not a big loss, but a loss nonetheless.
This is getting really, really difficult to endure...:cry:
Are you counting aces as +1 and fives as -1? :laugh: I am very sorry to hear about your bad luck. One of the many reasons why I prefer really long sessions is because it often takes me a while to get into a shoe with a high count that lasts a long time (ofc I have to deal with bad pen which I counter with rather aggressive wonging, it's kind of funny to make a dealer shuffle just to play 2 or 3 hands against them). Are these all at the same venue? Is it possible for you to drop down in limits? Have you been doing much studying / practicing outside of your play? Have you considered switching to hilo? It does preform better and it's really not that hard to learn after a while - although I still have some difficulties with TC conversion esp. w/ regards to index plays such as insurance.