Muppet, Nynefingers and Sonny.
Thanks for all the input on this. Read, and reread , the posts and watched the video.
I think I get the concept on the independence thing but a bit confusing. I will continue chewing on it.
I got the point on the calculation. Probability somewhere in the 1:1600 - 1:2500 bracket, probably toward the higher side.
That is enough of an answer to resolve my issues, at least as far as this question
Thanks for the education. Much appreciated.