ID case
- Thread starter kewljason
- Start date
I just watched the video, and I think it makes my point. Yes, Walters can 'bring the house down', but as they say in the video, there's no one even close to him, so despite his phenomenal success, the Vegas books still make tons of money, year in and year out.
Walter's has managed to lay his action for many, many years, and I'm sure anyone with his kind of juice would manage to get their action down as well, so I'll stick with my position that the sports books are being irrationally paranoid.
Walter's has managed to lay his action for many, many years, and I'm sure anyone with his kind of juice would manage to get their action down as well, so I'll stick with my position that the sports books are being irrationally paranoid.
Maybe so. I don't know all the circumstances. If a player were a consistent winner, and I was the Sports Book, I'd rather he peddle his papers somewhere else. But that would be based on a long-term record.
Bookies get beat all the time. Walters is a good model for all the small time bettors who do due diligence and go beyond what the bookies/linemakers do to determine the correct spread for games. You don't have to have a million dollar feed into your house to do this, just a few reliable sports lines and insider feeds, purchasable for a modest sum. But don't believe the hype that Walters is the only big time winning sports bettor out there. He's the one that everyone knows about.
Bookies get beat all the time. Walters is a good model for all the small time bettors who do due diligence and go beyond what the bookies/linemakers do to determine the correct spread for games. You don't have to have a million dollar feed into your house to do this, just a few reliable sports lines and insider feeds, purchasable for a modest sum. But don't believe the hype that Walters is the only big time winning sports bettor out there. He's the one that everyone knows about.
I know, right?
The interview also had the SB manager at 'M' saying he was happy to take Walters' action.
I just looked at SB win %'s for Clark County for the past 10 years. There are a couple of outliers, but most years fall between ~4.75% and 5.25% (I looked at football specifically). I think the big bettors who want to get down are doing so, and I'm sure they always will.
Now to get Walters to give us his sources and algorithms :grin:
The interview also had the SB manager at 'M' saying he was happy to take Walters' action.
I just looked at SB win %'s for Clark County for the past 10 years. There are a couple of outliers, but most years fall between ~4.75% and 5.25% (I looked at football specifically). I think the big bettors who want to get down are doing so, and I'm sure they always will.
Now to get Walters to give us his sources and algorithms :grin:
aslan said:
The newly built 'M' had a rough going of it and sold out this year. 
Are you saying that you think that the sports book had something to do with 'M' not meeting forecast? I think that most of the properties that opened after the bust are really struggling. They anticipated much higher revenue during the financing stage of planning and development, and many properties just can't sweat the note.
Smaller properties (Aliante, for example) were forecasting high growth in their areas prior to breaking ground. Unfortunately, they picked a bad time to open a casino.
I can't disagree. In the interview, the 'M' SB manager Lee Amaitis said something like, "I get info from Walters that I wouldn't otherwise have." I have no idea what impact that info has on the bototm line. Going against the grain can sometimes be advantageous, but I don't know if that's the case in this instance.
It seems that Mr. Amaitis still has his job and is expanding his role:
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/29009-Lee_Amaitis
http://www.reviewjournal.com/john-l-smith/meet-man-who-might-become-bookmaking-king
Now Walters can look forward to several books willing to take his action
It seems that Mr. Amaitis still has his job and is expanding his role:
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/29009-Lee_Amaitis
http://www.reviewjournal.com/john-l-smith/meet-man-who-might-become-bookmaking-king
Now Walters can look forward to several books willing to take his action
LovinItAll said:
I can't disagree. In the interview, the 'M' SB manager Lee Amaitis said something like, "I get info from Walters that I wouldn't otherwise have." I have no idea what impact that info has on the bototm line. Going against the grain can sometimes be advantageous, but I don't know if that's the case in this instance.
It seems that Mr. Amaitis still has his job and is expanding his role:
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/29009-Lee_Amaitis
http://www.reviewjournal.com/john-l-smith/meet-man-who-might-become-bookmaking-king
Now Walters can look forward to several books willing to take his action
It seems that Mr. Amaitis still has his job and is expanding his role:
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/29009-Lee_Amaitis
http://www.reviewjournal.com/john-l-smith/meet-man-who-might-become-bookmaking-king
Now Walters can look forward to several books willing to take his action
It's like he can place a bet at the M and they'll immediately change the line because he bet on a team because his calculations showed that team is likely to cover the spread. He uses that power sometimes to fool them to adjusting the line the direction he wants, then bets even more on the opposite team. He's banned from most casino sportsbooks, but any sportsbook would love to hire him to set the lines (but they can't pay him enough).
Not meaning to take anything away from him; Billy Walters is very good at what he does, but he's only one of MANY. There are a couple of members of this site that are just as good at sports handicapping; maybe even BETTER.
Ken Uston somehow became "known" as the worlds' best counter when he was playing. Doyle Brunson is somehow "known" as the worlds' best poker player. There are probably a dozen or so members of this site whos' counting skills equal or surpass those of ANY of the members of the MIT team. Because of one hit song, even Kenny Rogers has somehow gotten a reputation as a smart gambler!
I could go on FOREVER with examples of people who have for the wrong reason become elevated to the level of "legend", in the mind of the public. I guess that's human nature, though. The world NEEDS to have SOMEONE they can idolize!
Ken Uston somehow became "known" as the worlds' best counter when he was playing. Doyle Brunson is somehow "known" as the worlds' best poker player. There are probably a dozen or so members of this site whos' counting skills equal or surpass those of ANY of the members of the MIT team. Because of one hit song, even Kenny Rogers has somehow gotten a reputation as a smart gambler!
I could go on FOREVER with examples of people who have for the wrong reason become elevated to the level of "legend", in the mind of the public. I guess that's human nature, though. The world NEEDS to have SOMEONE they can idolize!
I was stunned that a billionaire could not find his way out of a conviction and will have to serve serious jail time. It makes me suspiciously proud of our judicial system and values. Tell me it isn't so! Money really can't buy you out of every problem in America? Or is he the exception that proves the rule?
Or is he the exception that proves the rule?