Actually building the bankroll seems to make soo much sense to me. This was my plan nearly six years ago, starting very under-funded with a BR of less than 5 grand and guess what? I am still working on that long, slow hard climb to 6 figures.Tarzan said:You want a $100,000 bankroll to work with? Build it up to that in the standard long, slow hard climb to that point! Why is that?--- Because if you're a good enough player you can build a bankroll up to that in a given period of time anyway and if you're NOT a good enough player, not only will you not be able to put together a bankroll of that size but you also would have defaulted on the loan!
What if you have a horrible year or 2 or 3? You're going to incur about $50,000 in expenses each year. If you do well and simply break even playing for 2 years your money will be gone...but you'll still owe a years worth of payments to the lender!Thunder said:Ok now I'm going to get into the real nitty gritty of the math. Assuming that all of your food expenses are covered by comps and assuming that you have a $100,000 loan at 10% APR for 3 years, here is what I come up with for a list of expenses:
Your monthly payment will be $3226.72. Total interest will be $16,161.87.
Rent $500/month (sharing with one other person)
Utilities $100
Health Insurance $200
Car insurance $80
(Clothes, Doc visits, gas, car repairs, other misc) $200/month
Total : $1080 (If I'm missing anything big let me know)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Total expenses including monthly loan payments $4306.72
------------------------------------------------------------------
Income -
With 1% edge and 1% ROR over the course of 240 days playing 8 hours a day average here is what I get with that bankroll
1 unit =$58
average bet = 2.9676 units = $172.12
betting $172.12/hand average and 60 hands/hr. = ($172.12*60 hands *.01 (edge)*1920 hours (total hours played during year) = $198,283 /year =$16,523.60/month
$16,523.60 - $4306.72 (expenses) = $12,216.90 profit per month
This leaves you with $12,216.90 in case you don't do as well that month as you'd expect. Even if you do have a horrible month and lose money, you can still recover. I think though that over the course of 115,200 hands a year, variance shouldn't be that big of an issue and you should easily be within 1 SD. Other things to note. I think the 1% edge could be higher and it's possible to play more than 60 hands/hr. So I consider this to be a conservative estimate. IF you feel there are things missing from my calculations, feel free to let me know what they are and I'll adjust it.
Oh lighten up. She's trying to save your ass from a terrible mistake. You do seem to have rather unreal expectations. You seem to think that a theoretical 1% advantage means you're going to have a real 1% advantage every time you play and that you'll be making 1% every day you play on your entire $100,000 bankroll (or close to it anyway). Are you going to risk your entire $100,000 bankroll everyday? With an average bet of $172 you could easily lose $5-10,000 in one day. A real bad streak could totally wipe you out in a month or 2, perhaps even less time than that. My average bet is about 1/10th of that and I've lost $2000 in the last 2 weeks (5 sessions).Thunder said:Standard Deviant, is this how you treat everyone who makes a simple math mistake one time out thousands? Do you judge people based on one event? For someone who preaches understanding the concept of variance and other things which affect blackjack performance, I find it highly ironic.You obviously have no clue what I do for a living as demonstrated by your remark lol. Let's just say I deal with margin every single day so the last person you should be lecturing about it to, is me. Margin is a double edged sword and is only to be used by professionals who seek more leverage. If my expectations are unrealistic, please point out what I said that was so unrealistic. Your remarks are quite out of line.
Your monthly interest payment is WAY off. $10,000 interest/12 months is $833 a month.Thunder said:Ok now I'm going to get into the real nitty gritty of the math. Assuming that all of your food expenses are covered by comps and assuming that you have a $100,000 loan at 10% APR for 3 years, here is what I come up with for a list of expenses:
Your monthly payment will be $3226.72. Total interest will be $16,161.87.
Rent $500/month (sharing with one other person)
Utilities $100
Health Insurance $200
Car insurance $80
(Clothes, Doc visits, gas, car repairs, other misc) $200/month
Total : $1080 (If I'm missing anything big let me know)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Total expenses including monthly loan payments $4306.72
------------------------------------------------------------------
Income -
With 1% edge and 1% ROR over the course of 240 days playing 8 hours a day average here is what I get with that bankroll
1 unit =$58
average bet = 2.9676 units = $172.12
betting $172.12/hand average and 60 hands/hr. = ($172.12*60 hands *.01 (edge)*1920 hours (total hours played during year) = $198,283 /year =$16,523.60/month
$16,523.60 - $4306.72 (expenses) = $12,216.90 profit per month
This leaves you with $12,216.90 in case you don't do as well that month as you'd expect. Even if you do have a horrible month and lose money, you can still recover. I think though that over the course of 115,200 hands a year, variance shouldn't be that big of an issue and you should easily be within 1 SD. Other things to note. I think the 1% edge could be higher and it's possible to play more than 60 hands/hr. So I consider this to be a conservative estimate. IF you feel there are things missing from my calculations, feel free to let me know what they are and I'll adjust it.
3 years is 36 months. 10% interest on a $100,000 loan for 36 months is not $10,000, it is indeed just over $16,000. His figures are correct this time.moo321 said:Your monthly interest payment is WAY off. $10,000 interest/12 months is $833 a month.
Ok, so you're including principle with it. I was just going based on interest. Yeah, if it's a 36 month ammortization... you'd be right.21gunsalute said:3 years is 36 months. 10% interest on a $100,000 loan for 36 months is not $10,000, it is indeed just over $16,000. His figures are correct this time.
21gunsalute said:Oh lighten up. She's trying to save your ass from a terrible mistake. You do seem to have rather unreal expectations. You seem to think that a theoretical 1% advantage means you're going to have a real 1% advantage every time you play and that you'll be making 1% every day you play on your entire $100,000 bankroll (or close to it anyway). Are you going to risk your entire $100,000 bankroll everyday? With an average bet of $172 you could easily lose $5-10,000 in one day. A real bad streak could totally wipe you out in a month or 2, perhaps even less time than that. My average bet is about 1/10th of that and I've lost $2000 in the last 2 weeks (5 sessions).
I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%moo321 said:Ok, so you're including principle with it. I was just going based on interest. Yeah, if it's a 36 month ammortization... you'd be right.
For some reason I was thinking of it in terms of an interest-only loan, rather than an ammortizing one. That changes a lot of things, but I'd still recommend it. Not as whole-heartedly, though.
My home loan, which I got in the last year, is at 5.5%. They certainly won't give a loan to anyone... I had to jump through infinite hoops to get it.Thunder said:I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%
Prosper is a horrible service, and in my opinion basically a scam. Default rates are far higher than the "open market", and the recovery rate for deadbeats is atrociously bad.Thunder said:I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%
They'll figure out a way to make it work. From what I've read, the higher credit rating loans actually aren't very risky, it's just when you get people with C and D tier credit (who you knew were credit risks).johndoe said:Prosper is a horrible service, and in my opinion basically a scam. Default rates are far higher than the "open market", and the recovery rate for deadbeats is atrociously bad.
Stay far away!
I was under the impression that he was taking an unsecured personal loan. A second mortgage would be totally different. I also stated earlier that I recommended this plan only if the OP didn't have significant personal assets: that is, he could go bankrupt if he failed.Tarzan said:In the post pertaining to "in the last few weeks I have lost 2000"... it means so little in the grand scheme of things. In the short term, so much and so many things can happen. You have to look at the long haul and be prepared for it. You can (if you play about perfectly) bang out a unit an hour, 1.5 units an hour and have to have the financial backing to ride it out. Paying ANYTHING in interest just does not make it worthwhile.
I hate the idea of putting out to novice players that it is some some way feasible that taking out a second mortgage is a cool way to finance your blackjack action because it provides you with an unsurrmountable "nut" that you must contend with above and beyond the already difficult task at hand! Short term losses pale in comparison to taking on any term interest payment. I know I can't afford that and I have a SERIOUS bankroll.