If you're an AP, have you ever considered getting a loan to finance your playing

#42
Don't

You want a $100,000 bankroll to work with? Build it up to that in the standard long, slow hard climb to that point! Why is that?--- Because if you're a good enough player you can build a bankroll up to that in a given period of time anyway and if you're NOT a good enough player, not only will you not be able to put together a bankroll of that size but you also would have defaulted on the loan! Under normal circumstances, a player that it is feasible from them to take out a loan to play on because they are good enough to warrant it already HAVE that sort of bankroll, so have no need to borrow money at interest for a larger bankroll!

I would borrow money to finance my blackjack playing... if I could have it interest free!!!! Hahahaa Otherwise, forget it. It's just out of the question and I'd be playing hard and giving it all I've got just to make an interest payment and not leave enough of the pie for ME. Why put yourself in that sort of bind and obligation? Why have to pick up the extra slack of an interest payment of any kind? Why add more stress to what is already stressful? Something else that was mentioned... expenses. Your travel, meals away from home, etc. One good way to build a bankroll is to look at these expenditures closely and operate frugally until you build things up to that 100,000-150,000 mark but borrowing money at interest is making a steeper incline on an uphill battle.

This subject was talked about at length in another post sometime back. I can't recall exactly what direction it all took but I stated much the same sort of response there. I think it was a post in which some novice player speculated about borrowing money to play on and Flash called him "delusional", rightfully so.
 
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Thunder

Well-Known Member
#43
Tarzan, you do raise good points. IF you're getting very stressed out from that, then you're right, you have no business trying to do that. As someone who has done commissioned sales before, I can only say that you can't really stress about the quota or the number you have to meet, but rather just focus on the day to day stuff and then the numbers will take care of themselves. To me personally, this wouldn't be much different from that except that there are slightly bigger numbers involved.

The travel cost should be minimal for anyone who is doing this for a living, snce you probably live close by and if you don't, you can take Greyhound or some bus company and get the trip for free because of the casino cashback that they give you. The food would be comped by the casino.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#44
Tarzan said:
You want a $100,000 bankroll to work with? Build it up to that in the standard long, slow hard climb to that point! Why is that?--- Because if you're a good enough player you can build a bankroll up to that in a given period of time anyway and if you're NOT a good enough player, not only will you not be able to put together a bankroll of that size but you also would have defaulted on the loan!
Actually building the bankroll seems to make soo much sense to me. This was my plan nearly six years ago, starting very under-funded with a BR of less than 5 grand and guess what? I am still working on that long, slow hard climb to 6 figures. :eek: I am currently only 2/3 there. Of course I needed a good deal of my winnings to live off of, especially the first 3 years and was not able to reinvest much back into the bankroll, which has caused my climb to be painfully slow, but still, there is a great deal of satisfaction and feeling of accomplishment doing it this way. This just seem like the way to go to me.
 
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21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#45
Thunder said:
Ok now I'm going to get into the real nitty gritty of the math. Assuming that all of your food expenses are covered by comps and assuming that you have a $100,000 loan at 10% APR for 3 years, here is what I come up with for a list of expenses:

Your monthly payment will be $3226.72. Total interest will be $16,161.87.
Rent $500/month (sharing with one other person)
Utilities $100
Health Insurance $200
Car insurance $80
(Clothes, Doc visits, gas, car repairs, other misc) $200/month
Total : $1080 (If I'm missing anything big let me know)
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Total expenses including monthly loan payments $4306.72
------------------------------------------------------------------
Income -

With 1% edge and 1% ROR over the course of 240 days playing 8 hours a day average here is what I get with that bankroll

1 unit =$58
average bet = 2.9676 units = $172.12

betting $172.12/hand average and 60 hands/hr. = ($172.12*60 hands *.01 (edge)*1920 hours (total hours played during year) = $198,283 /year =$16,523.60/month


$16,523.60 - $4306.72 (expenses) = $12,216.90 profit per month

This leaves you with $12,216.90 in case you don't do as well that month as you'd expect. Even if you do have a horrible month and lose money, you can still recover. I think though that over the course of 115,200 hands a year, variance shouldn't be that big of an issue and you should easily be within 1 SD. Other things to note. I think the 1% edge could be higher and it's possible to play more than 60 hands/hr. So I consider this to be a conservative estimate. IF you feel there are things missing from my calculations, feel free to let me know what they are and I'll adjust it.
What if you have a horrible year or 2 or 3? You're going to incur about $50,000 in expenses each year. If you do well and simply break even playing for 2 years your money will be gone...but you'll still owe a years worth of payments to the lender!

And once again, who is going to give anyone a $100,000, unsecured, 3 year loan? But you've done the math so why not take your "business plan" to a lender and see what they think?
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#46
Thunder said:
Standard Deviant, is this how you treat everyone who makes a simple math mistake one time out thousands? Do you judge people based on one event? For someone who preaches understanding the concept of variance and other things which affect blackjack performance, I find it highly ironic.You obviously have no clue what I do for a living as demonstrated by your remark lol. Let's just say I deal with margin every single day so the last person you should be lecturing about it to, is me. Margin is a double edged sword and is only to be used by professionals who seek more leverage. If my expectations are unrealistic, please point out what I said that was so unrealistic. Your remarks are quite out of line.
Oh lighten up. She's trying to save your ass from a terrible mistake. You do seem to have rather unreal expectations. You seem to think that a theoretical 1% advantage means you're going to have a real 1% advantage every time you play and that you'll be making 1% every day you play on your entire $100,000 bankroll (or close to it anyway). Are you going to risk your entire $100,000 bankroll everyday? With an average bet of $172 you could easily lose $5-10,000 in one day. A real bad streak could totally wipe you out in a month or 2, perhaps even less time than that. My average bet is about 1/10th of that and I've lost $2000 in the last 2 weeks (5 sessions).
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#47
Thunder said:
Ok now I'm going to get into the real nitty gritty of the math. Assuming that all of your food expenses are covered by comps and assuming that you have a $100,000 loan at 10% APR for 3 years, here is what I come up with for a list of expenses:

Your monthly payment will be $3226.72. Total interest will be $16,161.87.
Rent $500/month (sharing with one other person)
Utilities $100
Health Insurance $200
Car insurance $80
(Clothes, Doc visits, gas, car repairs, other misc) $200/month
Total : $1080 (If I'm missing anything big let me know)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Total expenses including monthly loan payments $4306.72
------------------------------------------------------------------
Income -

With 1% edge and 1% ROR over the course of 240 days playing 8 hours a day average here is what I get with that bankroll

1 unit =$58
average bet = 2.9676 units = $172.12

betting $172.12/hand average and 60 hands/hr. = ($172.12*60 hands *.01 (edge)*1920 hours (total hours played during year) = $198,283 /year =$16,523.60/month


$16,523.60 - $4306.72 (expenses) = $12,216.90 profit per month

This leaves you with $12,216.90 in case you don't do as well that month as you'd expect. Even if you do have a horrible month and lose money, you can still recover. I think though that over the course of 115,200 hands a year, variance shouldn't be that big of an issue and you should easily be within 1 SD. Other things to note. I think the 1% edge could be higher and it's possible to play more than 60 hands/hr. So I consider this to be a conservative estimate. IF you feel there are things missing from my calculations, feel free to let me know what they are and I'll adjust it.
Your monthly interest payment is WAY off. $10,000 interest/12 months is $833 a month.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#48
moo321 said:
Your monthly interest payment is WAY off. $10,000 interest/12 months is $833 a month.
3 years is 36 months. 10% interest on a $100,000 loan for 36 months is not $10,000, it is indeed just over $16,000. His figures are correct this time.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#49
21gunsalute said:
3 years is 36 months. 10% interest on a $100,000 loan for 36 months is not $10,000, it is indeed just over $16,000. His figures are correct this time.
Ok, so you're including principle with it. I was just going based on interest. Yeah, if it's a 36 month ammortization... you'd be right.

For some reason I was thinking of it in terms of an interest-only loan, rather than an ammortizing one. That changes a lot of things, but I'd still recommend it. Not as whole-heartedly, though.
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#50
21gunsalute said:
Oh lighten up. She's trying to save your ass from a terrible mistake. You do seem to have rather unreal expectations. You seem to think that a theoretical 1% advantage means you're going to have a real 1% advantage every time you play and that you'll be making 1% every day you play on your entire $100,000 bankroll (or close to it anyway). Are you going to risk your entire $100,000 bankroll everyday? With an average bet of $172 you could easily lose $5-10,000 in one day. A real bad streak could totally wipe you out in a month or 2, perhaps even less time than that. My average bet is about 1/10th of that and I've lost $2000 in the last 2 weeks (5 sessions).
:rolleyes: On average, I'd expect to make 1% per hand yes. Is it always going to be that way no. But with a risk of ruin of 1% for that bankroll over the course of an entire year, it would be very unlikely to lose it all in a month or two. She's not saving my ass from a terrible mistake because I honestly was only throwing the idea out there. I do appreciate the thought though. Just because one bounces an idea off someone else, doesn't mean that they actually have intent to implement that idea. As it is, I would probably go nuts if I had to play BJ that much.
You should also keep in mind that when I was calculating the ROR, I calculated it based on not playing any hands where the TC was less than 0, so your example of losing a lot of money may not be as relevant as you might think.
 
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Thunder

Well-Known Member
#51
moo321 said:
Ok, so you're including principle with it. I was just going based on interest. Yeah, if it's a 36 month ammortization... you'd be right.

For some reason I was thinking of it in terms of an interest-only loan, rather than an ammortizing one. That changes a lot of things, but I'd still recommend it. Not as whole-heartedly, though.
I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%
 
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rrwoods

Well-Known Member
#52
Thunder said:
I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%
My home loan, which I got in the last year, is at 5.5%. They certainly won't give a loan to anyone... I had to jump through infinite hoops to get it.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#53
Thunder said:
I think the banks have learned not just give out loans to almost anyone like they used to. I think Prosper.com will be the way of the future. Realistically though you could probably get a home equity loan for less than 10% if your credit was good as I've seen advertisements from ING for mortgages at 4.5%
Prosper is a horrible service, and in my opinion basically a scam. Default rates are far higher than the "open market", and the recovery rate for deadbeats is atrociously bad.

Stay far away!
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#54
johndoe said:
Prosper is a horrible service, and in my opinion basically a scam. Default rates are far higher than the "open market", and the recovery rate for deadbeats is atrociously bad.

Stay far away!
They'll figure out a way to make it work. From what I've read, the higher credit rating loans actually aren't very risky, it's just when you get people with C and D tier credit (who you knew were credit risks).
 
#55
Seriously now folks...

In the post pertaining to "in the last few weeks I have lost 2000"... it means so little in the grand scheme of things. In the short term, so much and so many things can happen. You have to look at the long haul and be prepared for it. You can (if you play about perfectly) bang out a unit an hour, 1.5 units an hour and have to have the financial backing to ride it out. Paying ANYTHING in interest just does not make it worthwhile.

I hate the idea of putting out to novice players that it is some some way feasible that taking out a second mortgage is a cool way to finance your blackjack action because it provides you with an unsurrmountable "nut" that you must contend with above and beyond the already difficult task at hand! Short term losses pale in comparison to taking on any term interest payment. I know I can't afford that and I have a SERIOUS bankroll.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#56
Tarzan said:
In the post pertaining to "in the last few weeks I have lost 2000"... it means so little in the grand scheme of things. In the short term, so much and so many things can happen. You have to look at the long haul and be prepared for it. You can (if you play about perfectly) bang out a unit an hour, 1.5 units an hour and have to have the financial backing to ride it out. Paying ANYTHING in interest just does not make it worthwhile.

I hate the idea of putting out to novice players that it is some some way feasible that taking out a second mortgage is a cool way to finance your blackjack action because it provides you with an unsurrmountable "nut" that you must contend with above and beyond the already difficult task at hand! Short term losses pale in comparison to taking on any term interest payment. I know I can't afford that and I have a SERIOUS bankroll.
I was under the impression that he was taking an unsecured personal loan. A second mortgage would be totally different. I also stated earlier that I recommended this plan only if the OP didn't have significant personal assets: that is, he could go bankrupt if he failed.
 
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