Im trying to calculate RoR.

BJApprentice21 · Apr 5, 2008

http://www.knowcasinos.com/images/ror_formula.PNG

So, theres the formula, but I have no clue what the houses BR should be. Also, assuming I'm playing with a 1% adv, do I make q -.01 and p .01? And wtf does "^" mean? I'm trying here but Im so lost...

Unshake · Apr 5, 2008

BJApprentice21 said:

I usually use (Dead link: http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html)

The symbol "^" means to the power of. Like 8^2 = 64 or 2^3 = 8 (2*2*2)

You want to use your bankroll, not the houses.

BJApprentice21 · Apr 5, 2008

Unshake said:

I usually use (Dead link: http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html)

The symbol "^" means to the power of. Like 8^2 = 64 or 2^3 = 8 (2*2*2)

Thanks man, appreciated.

Unshake said:

Hmm, according to knowcasinos.com, "Whereas R = risk of ruin, q = the odds of the house winning one trial, p = the odds of the player winning one trial, c = bankroll of house + bankroll of player, and d = bankroll of the player.(i) You can also think of q/p as the house advantage plus 1 if the house has the edge or 1 - player edge if the player has the advantage."

So I'm under the impression that I need to have a house BR value so that I can give c a value in the formula. Are they wrong? If not, what should the house BR be, why (If you don't mind)?

Thanks again.

EDIT: Also, I'm looking for the formula on WR and standard Dev. (squar root of hands played times the std dev for 1 hand...assuming a 1% advantage...I think, but thats why I'm looking), so I can't really use any type of calculator. Besides, doing the math with the correct formulas myself will help me sleep better at night.

Kasi · Apr 5, 2008

BJApprentice21;74992EDIT: Also said:

Well I don't really understand your first formula but the one Unshake gave is good.

The formula is below in his link.

Unfortunately you need to know the standard deviation first. Win rate too. Which in Blackjack changes with every bet spread, game, style of play etc.

Easiest way to get that in BJ anyway is with a sim.

BJApprentice21 · Apr 5, 2008

^ Damn...don't know how I missed the formula in the link. Stupid. Its much more simplistic too. Leads me to wonder wth all that crap I posted is for...maybe Immediate ROR?

If so, I still would like to know how to plug in the numbers to that formula! Now, off to find the formula to figure win rates, and I shall return with a fully outlined BR budget!

Thanks Kasi.

Kasi · Apr 5, 2008

BJApprentice21;75013 Now said:

Don't forget to figure out your standard deviation too!

You likely will need a sim.

Good luck.

Just thought I'd add that I think this a good article on what's involved in calculating win rate and stan dev using simple examples. I'm sure you can follow it if you stick with it.
Thought it might give you an idea of what sims are doing when they figure all this stuff out.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm

QFIT · Apr 5, 2008

Kasi said:

Don't forget to figure out your standard deviation too!

You likely will need a sim.

Good luck.

Just thought I'd add that I think this a good article on what's involved in calculating win rate and stan dev using simple examples. I'm sure you can follow it if you stick with it.
Thought it might give you an idea of what sims are doing when they figure all this stuff out.

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm

There are a lot of incorrect assumptions and short-cuts in that article.

Kasi · Apr 7, 2008

QFIT said:

I'm not disagreeing but I thought it at least gives a general idea of what's involved.

It's not like he had SD's associated with TC's or frequencies or anything.

Any further details on your thoughts of incorrect assumptions and/or short-cuts would, as always, be appreciated.

Would I be right in assuming one could re-create, or come very close, to Don's numbers on the right-side in CH 10 from the first 3 columns on the left-side using just a spreadsheet? (and suggested bet-spreads of course assuming roll.)

I mean I know the TC Freq and EV W/L% and SD in first 3 columns were all generated with sims but is there anything else one need really know to determine one's own ramp and ROR, etc., for that particular game and pen?
(not counting wonging out in neg TC's since those are not detailed but just the concept kind of thing.)

To answer the poster's question, what would be the minimal information necessary to develop one's own spreads etc?

QFIT · Apr 7, 2008

Kasi said:

I created those numbers in Don's book. Yes a spreadsheet could do this. It's a rather complex spreadsheet requiring VBA as the function is iterative. And, of course, you need the first three columns of data for the specific circumstances. This data cannot be created with a spreadsheet.

Kasi · Apr 8, 2008

QFIT said:

Thank you. And I know there's no better person to ask lol.

Is that iterative process only necessary when one wants to develop the "best" ramp, I guess SCORE-wise?

Would I still have to worry about that iterative process if I just wanted to enter any 1-to-whatever-spread changing how much at what counts based soley on the hard data in the first 3 columns?

Probably a dumb question so don't worry about it.

But thanks again - one more thing to think about lol.

moo321 · Apr 8, 2008

WOOHOO! Risk of ruin strikes again!

BJApprentice21 · Apr 9, 2008

Wow Im frustrated. Okay, so I've been trying to calculate all this crap using CV. But, my numbers never add up and I just cant figure it out.

Okay, $10,000 BR/20$ units= 500 Units.

Now, after 10,000 hands I would like to have 750 Units.

Standard dev. I get for $20unit/average bet playing at a 1% adv. after 100 hands is $220 with an EV of $22

According to CV, that leaves me with a 69% probability of reaching my goal (so 31% RoR?).

According to CV, that leaves me with a 6.99 win rate.

BUT every time I go to figure Std. Dev. after Ive done all this and I enter these numbers the Std. Dev. is out of range. If I get the Std. Dev. in range I need to have about a 1%-3% probability

More confused now than when I started and I don't even feel like trying anymore lol. But I will 'cause I'm :cool2: like that :grin:.

the way I figured Std. Dev. is:

$20unit/average bet x 1.1 = $22

EV of that is $0.22 for 1 Hand Std. Dev for 1 hand is $22

EV for 100 hands is $ 20 Std. Dev. for 100 hands is $220

EV for 10,000 Hands is $2,200 Std. Dev. for 10,000 hands is $2,200

What am I over looking or doing wrong?

What do your calculations say my RoR/Win Rate/Std. Dev are?

QFIT · Apr 9, 2008

BJApprentice21 said:

Probability of reaching goal and ruin don't add to 100%. You can also end up with any number between 0 and your goal.

BJApprentice21 said:

That only works for Basic Strategy. CVCX calculates the std. dev. for you. No need for you to calc it.

moo321 · Apr 9, 2008

You're using different formulas, and trying to mash the results together. It sounds like you want the formula for risk of ruin vs. chance of doubling.

Automatic Monkey · Apr 9, 2008

QFIT said:

Another sometimes confusing possibility is that of first reaching your goal and then reaching ruin, within a finite number of hands. As AP's we never "quit while we're ahead" so this is a real possibility.

Kasi · Apr 9, 2008

BJApprentice21 said:

Well like QFIT said it calcs it for you or are you just using a calculator?

If you want to do it by hand, make up a spread betting so many units at each TC. Then square those units at each TC and multiply that by Freq and Advantage % and variance at each TC. Sum that and take the square root. That's the stand dev in units per hand. Assuming you play all hands and only play one hand at a time to make life easier.

It's late but I think that's it.

Later comes winning x units in y hands. Come to think of it, much later, because I've never been able to figure that out. The formula is a real *itch lol.

Fun, huh? lol.

Hang in there lol.

dgun · Jun 22, 2008

Hello all

I know this thread is a couple of months old, so please excuse the bump.

But I just wanted to point out that the formula posted here from knowcasinos.com is a very general risk of ruin formula. It's not really adequate for calculating blackjack ror for a number of reasons. First, it assumes a flat payout per trial. And since blackjacks pay 3:2 and with double downs and splitting it just does not work.

The purpose of the little article was really just a general explanation of risk of ruin.

As to considering the house's bankroll, it is true that this can be ignored and a modified formula can be used by assuming that the house has an infinite bankroll or just a bankroll far greater than the player.

This formula could be used to determine the ror between two players in any hypothetical game with a flat payout, and was taken from a book on probability theory. In order to accommodate graduated payouts, etc., you would have to do some tweaking to the formula.

So sorry for any confusion. I'm the owner of that particular site and have to seriously get around to updating it and redesigning to make it more professional. I just (1) don't have very much time (2) did not realize when I started the site exactly how much research and 'math'

I would be doing.

Oh and I don't intend this as spam, byw, I just saw the referral in my web stats. :grin:

Im trying to calculate RoR.

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