Interesting observation.....

[Tom007]

Well I have been off the forum for quite some time now, I guess I got a little gun shy with some bad variance. My trip to Vegas 2 years ago I was up 225 units in the first 2 days only to watch it melt away in the next 2 days this was the start of what would wipe out my 1960 unit bank roll that took me 2 years to build from scratch. When I look at my records I was real lucky the 1st 2 years considering the 1st year I wasn't good enough to be playing with real $.

A year and a half ago my son took sick and our lives became a living hell for the next 9 months. (he is much better now) so I never saw inside a casino in that time. But what I did do to take my mind off things is practice on my computer. When I practice I have a play $ br and play the same unit as my real $ game.

I did get back to Vegas last Oct. for my bro's birthday and didn't play more than about 10 hours, without looking at my records It was a disaster from the get go but I did win about 30% back on my last couple of sessions.

Here's the kicker I didn't lose my entire br. The interesting Q is would I have? because I still practice about 2 hours a week and have lost over 2000 units spreading the same way I do in real $. And the few times I have visited my home casino since Oct. I haven't won a single session. I have read enough books and have seen enough to know you don't drop your spread or unit just because you think your in a bad streak, only adjust to keep a 1% of total br max bet. But my thinking is bad variance is just that, it doesnt know if you are playing for real $ or play $. Needless to say I'm not going back until the practice game turns better. And you can never practice too much anyway.

Cheers

 

[kewljason]

Well I have been off the forum for quite some time now, I guess I got a little gun shy with some bad variance. My trip to Vegas 2 years ago I was up 225 units in the first 2 days only to watch it melt away in the next 2 days this was the start of what would wipe out my 1960 unit bank roll that took me 2 years to build from scratch. When I look at my records I was real lucky the 1st 2 years considering the 1st year I wasn't good enough to be playing with real $.

A year and a half ago my son took sick and our lives became a living hell for the next 9 months. (he is much better now) so I never saw inside a casino in that time. But what I did do to take my mind off things is practice on my computer. When I practice I have a play $ br and play the same unit as my real $ game.

I did get back to Vegas last Oct. for my bro's birthday and didn't play more than about 10 hours, without looking at my records It was a disaster from the get go but I did win about 30% back on my last couple of sessions.

Here's the kicker I didn't lose my entire br. The interesting Q is would I have? because I still practice about 2 hours a week and have lost over 2000 units spreading the same way I do in real $. And the few times I have visited my home casino since Oct. I haven't won a single session. I have read enough books and have seen enough to know you don't drop your spread or unit just because you think your in a bad streak, only adjust to keep a 1% of total br max bet. But my thinking is bad variance is just that, it doesnt know if you are playing for real $ or play $. Needless to say I'm not going back until the practice game turns better. And you can never practice too much anyway.

Cheers

Dude, this sounds like one heck of a lot of "bad variance". You lost 1960 units in real $ play and another 2000 units in practice play. That's 4000 units of bad variance? That would be like losing 100K with a $25 unit. I'll let the math geeks and sim pro's here tell you just how unlikely that is. The first thing you need to do is be sure you are playing an actual winning game in real life and practice, which I suspect you are not. If you could share details of your play, number of decks, rules, penetration, bet spread and ramp, I am sure someone would check that for you.

ps. welcome back to the forum.

 

[Multiple dk counter]

Hope your son is better and stays that way. I've been playing 6-deck BJ in A.C. casinos for thirty years. I stopped last month when all the A.C. casinos switched to eight decks (at most reasonable $ limits), with the dealer now hitting soft 17 (new in A.C.). This eight-deck garbage game is unbeatable for anyone. As for your own blackjack dilemma/quandry ... when you hit the tables, you can either count or you can't (it's like swimming). If you can't count cards EFFORTLESSLY, no matter how fast the dealer deals; instantly calculate your indices (variations on basic strategy according to the true count), be able to minimally converse with players, dealers, floor people, don't lose the count when you're deciding how to play your hand -- and all the myriad things an expert counter does the way a musician sight-reads previously unseen music charts -- then you shouldn't be playing casino blackjack.

At a one-percent advantage in a mistake-free playall 6-deck game with 80 percent penetration, Atlantic City rules, you'd have to wager one-million dollars (long-term) to WIN $10,000. (Ten thousand is one percent of one million).

Of course, Wonging is a viable alternative ... if you're willing to put in the time. It gets too boring after awhile for most of us "brainy" counters. LOL

If this sounds next to impossible ... take it from me ... it is.

 

[kewljason]

Hope your son is better and stays that way. I've been playing 6-deck BJ in A.C. casinos for thirty years. I stopped last month when all the A.C. casinos switched to eight decks (at most reasonable $ limits), with the dealer now hitting soft 17 (new in A.C.). This eight-deck garbage game is unbeatable for anyone. As for your own blackjack dilemma/quandry ... when you hit the tables, you can either count or you can't (it's like swimming). If you can't count cards EFFORTLESSLY, no matter how fast the dealer deals; instantly calculate your indices (variations on basic strategy according to the true count), be able to minimally converse with players, dealers, floor people, don't lose the count when you're deciding how to play your hand -- and all the myriad things an expert counter does the way a musician sight-reads previously unseen music charts -- then you shouldn't be playing casino blackjack.

At a one-percent advantage in a mistake-free playall 6-deck game with 80 percent penetration, Atlantic City rules, you'd have to wager one-million dollars (long-term) to WIN $10,000. (Ten thousand is one percent of one million).

Of course, Wonging is a viable alternative ... if you're willing to put in the time. It gets too boring after awhile for most of us "brainy" counters. LOL

If this sounds next to impossible ... take it from me ... it is.

My blackjack career didn't begin until 2004, but I was under the impression AC didn't have 6 deck blackjack until Borgata opened in 2003. Certainly not at reasonable $ limits as you say. Also hitting soft 17 is not new to AC. Wonging is not really a viable alternative. Fewer and fewer games allow mid shoe entry and those few that do are mostly at low level tables where crowded conditions make doing so, all but impossible.

You speak of pushing across a million dollars like that is some gigantic task. If you are playing a $25 unit with any kind of reasonable spread, your average bet is going to be above $50. @ 70 hands per hour, you would push across a million bucks in less than 300 hours.

Also, not sure what your post about AC conditions has to do with the original poster's situation??

 

[shadroch]

Sands used to offer one on one BJ with nice penetration, three decks and $25 minimum in the early 00s.

 

[kewljason]

Sands used to offer one on one BJ with nice penetration, three decks and $25 minimum in the early 00s.

But the poster said he's been playing 6 decks in AC for 30 years.

 

[creeping panther]

Tom

Well I have been off the forum for quite some time now, I guess I got a little gun shy with some bad variance. My trip to Vegas 2 years ago I was up 225 units in the first 2 days only to watch it melt away in the next 2 days this was the start of what would wipe out my 1960 unit bank roll that took me 2 years to build from scratch. When I look at my records I was real lucky the 1st 2 years considering the 1st year I wasn't good enough to be playing with real $.

A year and a half ago my son took sick and our lives became a living hell for the next 9 months. (he is much better now) so I never saw inside a casino in that time. But what I did do to take my mind off things is practice on my computer. When I practice I have a play $ br and play the same unit as my real $ game.

I did get back to Vegas last Oct. for my bro's birthday and didn't play more than about 10 hours, without looking at my records It was a disaster from the get go but I did win about 30% back on my last couple of sessions.

Here's the kicker I didn't lose my entire br. The interesting Q is would I have? because I still practice about 2 hours a week and have lost over 2000 units spreading the same way I do in real $. And the few times I have visited my home casino since Oct. I haven't won a single session. I have read enough books and have seen enough to know you don't drop your spread or unit just because you think your in a bad streak, only adjust to keep a 1% of total br max bet. But my thinking is bad variance is just that, it doesnt know if you are playing for real $ or play $. Needless to say I'm not going back until the practice game turns better. And you can never practice too much anyway.

Cheers

Tom,

I will not even address the BJ game.

I feel for you about your son being ill and I hope all remains well now with him.

My best regards for the future,
CP

 

[Multiple dk counter]

General A.C. info

Six deck games (along with a few four-deck games, e.g., Caesars, Trop) were dealt in A.C. FROM '78 TO '93 when Ken Uston won the cardcounting case in N.J. With counters allowed to play, most casinos then switched to 8 decks, though many casinos continued to offer four- (Claridge) and six-deck games.

A six-deck, play-all game is barely beatable (long-term), unless you play mistake-free with the full range of index numbers. In other words, like a computer. At a $25 table, you'd need a spread of 1-12 and a minimum bankroll of fifteen-twenty thousand just to have a chance of winning consistently and you could and would probably still go broke.

For a real eye-opener, read Barry Meadows's "Blackjack Autumn" where he plays multiple deck BJ at each LV AND RENO casino, covering 4,000 miles and two months' play.

Even for the expert counter, BJ is the most unpredictable and treacherous "beatable" casino game in history, often confounding the likes of Ken Uston who said he'd never play BJ without a team.

The few "highs" the counter enjoys after winning consistently for a few sessions -- accompanied by that well-known feeling of "invincibility" -- are nothing compared to the excruciatingly, depressing lows that are an everyday part of the game because of the dreaded and unavoidable, devastating bankroll FLUCTUATIONS.

You could be the most proficient counter on earth ... but ... if the cards don't happen to fall your way one day -- with the true count pushing plus 6 (which happens more often than not) ... fugettaboutit!

 

[kewljason]

Six deck games (along with a few four-deck games, e.g., Caesars, Trop) were dealt in A.C. FROM '78 TO '93 when Ken Uston won the cardcounting case in N.J. With counters allowed to play, most casinos then switched to 8 decks, though many casinos continued to offer four- (Claridge) and six-deck games.

A six-deck, play-all game is barely beatable (long-term), unless you play mistake-free with the full range of index numbers. In other words, like a computer. At a $25 table, you'd need a spread of 1-12 and a minimum bankroll of fifteen-twenty thousand just to have a chance of winning consistently and you could and would probably still go broke.

For a real eye-opener, read Barry Meadows's "Blackjack Autumn" where he plays multiple deck BJ at each LV AND RENO casino, covering 4,000 miles and two months' play.

Well your date concerning Ken Uston winning the card counting case (1993) must be incorrect. Ken Uston died in 1987. I thought the card counting case was much earlier, like in the very early 80's and at that point, the majority of games became 8 deck. As I said, I wasn't playing then, so I don't know.

I know there are a number of us here on this site that have had pretty reasonable longterm success in AC, but I don't think any of us use a play all approach. I think we all either wong in (when possible) or wong out, avoiding many of the negative counts.

As for "Blackjack Autumn", I have read it. Great book! And does clearly demonstrate the large swings associated with the game, hence the need for a large bankroll. My only problem with the book is that it only documented two months play, which is still very short term. I would have like to see results from a much larger sampling closer to often debated, long run.

 

[Tom007]

Dude, this sounds like one heck of a lot of "bad variance". You lost 1960 units in real $ play and another 2000 units in practice play. That's 4000 units of bad variance? That would be like losing 100K with a $25 unit. I'll let the math geeks and sim pro's here tell you just how unlikely that is. The first thing you need to do is be sure you are playing an actual winning game in real life and practice, which I suspect you are not. If you could share details of your play, number of decks, rules, penetration, bet spread and ramp, I am sure someone would check that for you.

ps. welcome back to the forum.

I'm not a great writer for sure. But in the 3rd paragraph of the original post I said that I didn't lose my entire br. The point of my post, was to throw it out there, that bad variance knows no boundaries. I only lost part of my br but lost over 2000 in my practice play with hardly any winning sessions and the 2 or 3 times I played my home casino it was the same no winners.
The fact that I won 1960 units in the 1st 2 years from starting my 1st session with 20 units should tell you that my game is at the very least decent. Thank you all for the kind words of my son, yes he is doing very well and is a true warrior.

 

[kewljason]

I'm not a great writer for sure. But in the 3rd paragraph of the original post I said that I didn't lose my entire br. The point of my post, was to throw it out there, that bad variance knows no boundaries. I only lost part of my br but lost over 2000 in my practice play with hardly any winning sessions and the 2 or 3 times I played my home casino it was the same no winners.
The fact that I won 1960 units in the 1st 2 years from starting my 1st session with 20 units should tell you that my game is at the very least decent. Thank you all for the kind words of my son, yes he is doing very well and is a true warrior.

First of all, so very good to hear about your sons strong progress. wishing him the best.

I do understand that only half (1960) of these losses were actual real money and the other half only practice play. However, with the practice play showing similar results, it leads to to question whether the game you are playing is actually a winning game. Thats why I asked.

Losing 4000 units (combined real and practice restults) seems very unusual and probably far out of the range of several standard deviations. Perhaps if you are playing some hugemongous spread of 1-200, it would be feasible as that would only be 20 max bets, but anything short of that seems extraordinarily far out of the norm.

I had hoped some of the math expert guys here would chime in to confirm my thoughts, but perhaps they were insulted by my math geek reference. (said lovingley of course) :laugh:

Again, if you wanted to share the details of the type of game you are playing and your betting strategy, myself or someone else could run a simulation which would show what your expectation should be and just how far off your results are.

 

[caramel6]

I'm not a great writer for sure. But in the 3rd paragraph of the original post I said that I didn't lose my entire br. The point of my post, was to throw it out there, that bad variance knows no boundaries. I only lost part of my br but lost over 2000 in my practice play with hardly any winning sessions and the 2 or 3 times I played my home casino it was the same no winners.
The fact that I won 1960 units in the 1st 2 years from starting my 1st session with 20 units should tell you that my game is at the very least decent. Thank you all for the kind words of my son, yes he is doing very well and is a true warrior.

Hope all the best for your son, as for BJ, why not to try just wing in in TC3, win some money and come next day?

O key, it is boring comparing with a all round play, but I would rather be better off in a boring way, than to have all excitement in the worls and lose money.

 

[Tom007]

First of all, so very good to hear about your sons strong progress. wishing him the best.

I do understand that only half (1960) of these losses were actual real money and the other half only practice play. However, with the practice play showing similar results, it leads to to question whether the game you are playing is actually a winning game. Thats why I asked.

Losing 4000 units (combined real and practice restults) seems very unusual and probably far out of the range of several standard deviations. Perhaps if you are playing some hugemongous spread of 1-200, it would be feasible as that would only be 20 max bets, but anything short of that seems extraordinarily far out of the norm.

I had hoped some of the math expert guys here would chime in to confirm my thoughts, but perhaps they were insulted by my math geek reference. (said lovingley of course) :laugh:

Again, if you wanted to share the details of the type of game you are playing and your betting strategy, myself or someone else could run a simulation which would show what your expectation should be and just how far off your results are.

I never lost (1960 units) just the 225 that I was up in Vegas in the last 2 days of that trip, and then maybe 150 units or so on the next couple of visits at my home casino. Then I had to quit and only practice to keep my mind off things. What I'm saying is that I maybe would have lost my real br had I kept playing real$.

I mostly play 6d hit17 doa ns das spread 1-2x10 at my home casino with no heat. 75-85% pen. In vegas I play same spread 75% pen same rules but with surrender play all and wong out at -1

I appreciate your replies and am certainly not trying to argue with you.

Thanks
Tom

 

[kewljason]

I never lost (1960 units) just the 225 that I was up in Vegas in the last 2 days of that trip, and then maybe 150 units or so on the next couple of visits at my home casino. Then I had to quit and only practice to keep my mind off things. What I'm saying is that I maybe would have lost my real br had I kept playing real$.

I mostly play 6d hit17 doa ns das spread 1-2x10 at my home casino with no heat. 75-85% pen. In vegas I play same spread 75% pen same rules but with surrender play all and wong out at -1

I appreciate your replies and am certainly not trying to argue with you.

Thanks
Tom

Ok, My apoligies. I guess it was that line that read "this was the start of what would wipe out my 1960 unit bankroll that took me 2 years to build", that confused me. I took that to mean that you had lost 1960 units. If you onlly lost 225 (only 225..:laugh: ) then that is not so extreme. Bad for you of course, but probably not out of the norm.