Is it time to increase my unit bet?

2

21forme

Well-Known Member
I don't have a dedicated bankroll, per se, as I have have a full-time job with a good, steady income. However, when I started playing regularly, about 6 months ago, I allocated 5K for my "play money," just to see how it would go, and it wouldn't be a big deal if it had evaporated. My play has gone well and now that BR is up to about 20K. I've been playing mostly a $25 unit, sometimes a $50 unit, using KO Preferred, with modifications to take advantage of opportunities early in the shoe that KO misses.

Is it time to increase to a $100 unit? I've had zero heat so far (all play in AC.) Would the increase bring more scrutiny? Comments re pros and cons appreciated. Thanks.
 
With your current unit, what are your typical mix/max bets, and how much are you wonging?

If you were betting conservatively, the quadrupling your bankroll would definitely be in order (when my bankroll grew from $5k to $20k, I increased my max bets from $50 to $200).

However, if you're talking about having max bets up to $1000 or so, then it might be an unacceptably high risk of ruin.

Or let's put it this way: You'd be okay with losign $5k, but how would you feel if you lost $20k? Are you more aggressive because you're "playing with winnings", or less aggressive because losing that amount would wreck the level of play you prefer?
 
Now I'm spreading 1 to 10 and sometimes 1 to (2x8).

When wonging I follow the same scheme. If I wong in at the KO key count (TC=+1.5), I bet 2 units. If I wong in at the pivot point (TC=+4) I bet 10 units, with the unit being $25 or $50 depending on my mood and how I'm doing that day.

If I were to increase my unit to $100, then I would bet $1K when called for. The worst thing to do (and I made that mistake just once) is get spooked by a lot of money on the table and not follow the "rules." I did that once where I should have taken insurance, but didn't because I didn't want to put more money on the table. Guess what happened?
 
Yeah, my play is normally pretty automatic with big bets out, just recently I had to take $150 worth of insurance, it sure felt a like a lot to me (I think I won 1 out of 2).

Anyway, it sounds like you're talking about currently having a max bet of $250, or two hands of ~$180... or up to double that if you're feeling frisky. I'd go to qfit.com, find the blackjack section, and check out some of the risk of ruin calculators, but I believe you've got a fairly high percentage ROR there, unless you're willing to continuously resize your bets downward as bankroll shrinks.

If you had max bets of $1000, you'd almost definitely be beyond double-Kelly-fraction, which means a guaranteed 100% risk of ruin unless you resize bets downward. (and betting 5% of your bankroll in one hand, you'd have to be doing recalculations every other hand). In other words, I'd qualify it as Wild-Ass Gambling.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.
 
no

and that's because 1.) high risk of ruin 2.) you've already admitted you made strategy changes because you're playing wiht scared money
 
Well I'd agree with Riza.

Play another 6 months and win another 15K doing whatever u were doing. That wouldn't be bad would it? Maybe then nudge it up.

I'm guessing u may have been overbetting a 5K roll in the first place and maybe got fortunate.

As always, spend $100 on a sim and plug stuff in so u can answer your own question with the exact game, bet spread etc.

You might find you can change your unit size when wonging while maintaining the same ROR.
 
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