Just got off the AC treadmill
- Thread starter aslan
- Start date
Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol
PS--It's ASLAN.
Az
PS--It's ASLAN.
Az
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As both a card counter AND a compulsive gambler I can see through this...
Even in my worst uproars from my days as a CG I would NEVER throw down $1000 on a roulette bet. Did you get hit with negative variance? Or were you just over betting? Betting according to running count or true count?
You are playing on emotion and I something tells me you know a decent amount about AP play, but you have yet to master it. The Borgata DOES have beatable games, although it takes discipline and patience. There are enough pits in there to be able to find a decent game. I've never seen truly atrocious penetration there like you claim to have seem.
I'd really look at my bankroll management... $225 bets at a $5 table? In all my time card counting I very rarely see a count that justifies a 2x 25 unit bet or even a 60 unit bet.
I would really look at your gambling history and maybe even if addictions run in your family... 'cuz it really looks like you've got a problem.
Even in my worst uproars from my days as a CG I would NEVER throw down $1000 on a roulette bet. Did you get hit with negative variance? Or were you just over betting? Betting according to running count or true count?
You are playing on emotion and I something tells me you know a decent amount about AP play, but you have yet to master it. The Borgata DOES have beatable games, although it takes discipline and patience. There are enough pits in there to be able to find a decent game. I've never seen truly atrocious penetration there like you claim to have seem.
I'd really look at my bankroll management... $225 bets at a $5 table? In all my time card counting I very rarely see a count that justifies a 2x 25 unit bet or even a 60 unit bet.
I would really look at your gambling history and maybe even if addictions run in your family... 'cuz it really looks like you've got a problem.
aslan said:
Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol
PS--It's ASLAN. Az
PS--It's ASLAN.
Az
I don't think we do that, not the veteran AP's here. If wild swings turn you on there's enough opportunity to do that just playing BJ with an advantage. I've lost $1400 on one BJ hand, starting with a $10 betting unit (7 max bets of $200, lost when the dealer caught a 21). One extra pip for the dealer and I would have won $1400 instead. What the hell do I have to go play roulette for when things like this can happen?
The only straight gambling (for it's own sake, comp and cover play not included) I'll ever do is similar to what Shadroch says, watch a baseball game on the big screen with free drinks and a $20 bet on the Yankees, just to put some money where my loyalty is.
The only straight gambling (for it's own sake, comp and cover play not included) I'll ever do is similar to what Shadroch says, watch a baseball game on the big screen with free drinks and a $20 bet on the Yankees, just to put some money where my loyalty is.
I don't know when you were last there (I remember the sleeping in the car story last year...) but things have changed in the last month. I heard they got hit hard by a team recently and since then, dealers have been instructed to cut off 2 1/2 decks. Personally, I've seen mostly 2 decks cut off there in the last few weeks, which still sucks compared to what it used to be.
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aslan said:
Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol
PS--It's ASLAN. Az
PS--It's ASLAN.
Az
Just want to make sure if you are complusive, are in danger of being so or already.
If you realise that you have gambled money that you cannot afford it is usually too late.
Problem gamblers are normally detect by their playing habits and state of mind. To me the real test like alcohol addition is whether you can stay away from booze or in your case the casino for an extended period of time and not suffer withdrawal symtoms.
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And I meant game plan(s) in the most specific sense possible , so specific in fact, I'm guessing you may have not even imagined it yet. Or perhaps ever. :grin:
But, if you think a game plan is writing down walking around more looking for a "good" game when you just spent 17 hours playing an unbeatbale game, maybe playing less continuously and playing when fresh and maybe promising to play no negative EV game, well, that's just a little too broad for my taste.
I'm not trying to put you down in any way whatsoever and appreciate the guts it takes to post here and bare your soul asking for potential improvements.
So, if I sound harsh, I apologize. Call it "tough love" lol.
I'd just feel better knowing you had a real specific plan for each and every game you may be playing, etc.
And, while I'm here, I don't make any conclusion from you betting at roulette.
Hey - a much better chance of winning the next spin than winning the next BJ hand and with less variance lol.
But, if you think a game plan is writing down walking around more looking for a "good" game when you just spent 17 hours playing an unbeatbale game, maybe playing less continuously and playing when fresh and maybe promising to play no negative EV game, well, that's just a little too broad for my taste.
I'm not trying to put you down in any way whatsoever and appreciate the guts it takes to post here and bare your soul asking for potential improvements.
So, if I sound harsh, I apologize. Call it "tough love" lol.
I'd just feel better knowing you had a real specific plan for each and every game you may be playing, etc.
And, while I'm here, I don't make any conclusion from you betting at roulette.
Hey - a much better chance of winning the next spin than winning the next BJ hand and with less variance lol.
See that's just the point. Why would you even just blindly believe such a general statement? What might make it true? What might make it false?
What would change if the game were H17 only or H17 with LS or S17 with or without LS or with or without DA2 even if DAS didn't exist? And what would change with any of the above if the game were dealt 52/104 vs 70/104 or something in between? What if it were D9?
What would change if you chose to backcount any of the above, and what if you only entered at TC +1 as opposed to TC+2 or even TC+3, as opposed to play-all? What would change if you only wong-out a certain point because mid-shoe entry is not allowed?
What would change if you chose to not jump your bets in accordance with the count?
What would change if you spread to 2 hands at a certain count vs not doing so?
How would you bet a lifetime/trip bankroll under all those circumstances and what win rate would you be expecting? Not to mention ROR.
Would you bring a different amount of money if you will be playing 16 hours vs 100 hours? If so, how much?
Then figure all that out for a 6D game if you are planning on playing one.
You playing indices too? - they're probably different for different decks.
And that's just the beginning.
Stuff like that. Not stuff like thinking "I'll be well-rested when I play" is enough. As if that's all that may be wrong with one's current approach. As fine an idea as it is. And one I couldn't agree more with, btw.
That's the kind of stuff you have to figure out ahead of time at least in some broad way, at least it makes me feel better anyway, even if it's only an illusion, so you have an idea of ranges under various circumstances.
What's that? You don't know, or at least have some idea, of all these answers?
Hey, even a blind squirrel finds some nuts.
What would change if the game were H17 only or H17 with LS or S17 with or without LS or with or without DA2 even if DAS didn't exist? And what would change with any of the above if the game were dealt 52/104 vs 70/104 or something in between? What if it were D9?
What would change if you chose to backcount any of the above, and what if you only entered at TC +1 as opposed to TC+2 or even TC+3, as opposed to play-all? What would change if you only wong-out a certain point because mid-shoe entry is not allowed?
What would change if you chose to not jump your bets in accordance with the count?
What would change if you spread to 2 hands at a certain count vs not doing so?
How would you bet a lifetime/trip bankroll under all those circumstances and what win rate would you be expecting? Not to mention ROR.
Would you bring a different amount of money if you will be playing 16 hours vs 100 hours? If so, how much?
Then figure all that out for a 6D game if you are planning on playing one.
You playing indices too? - they're probably different for different decks.
And that's just the beginning.
Stuff like that. Not stuff like thinking "I'll be well-rested when I play" is enough. As if that's all that may be wrong with one's current approach. As fine an idea as it is. And one I couldn't agree more with, btw.
That's the kind of stuff you have to figure out ahead of time at least in some broad way, at least it makes me feel better anyway, even if it's only an illusion, so you have an idea of ranges under various circumstances.
What's that? You don't know, or at least have some idea, of all these answers?
Hey, even a blind squirrel finds some nuts.
So I gather it would be smart to figure out each type of game I might encounter, which in AC means 6-deck and 8-deck, and what my minimum requirements would be to even consider sitting down at the table. Things I should include would be rules (I don't think they vary much in AC, except for mid-shoe entry); minimally acceptable penetration (according to Snyder, if I can find 75% pen, wong in at a 0.5% advantage {using KO that's about a RC of -2 I believe in 6-deck}, I can attain about $28/hr flatbetting $100, and reduced flux) or if the pen is 65% wonging in at 0.5% adv, I can attain about $20/hr flatbetting $100; Exit strategy for wonging out where NME; betting progressions (I use the suggested betting progressions from the KO book, starting with two units at -4, and progressing to 10 units at +4 (which coincides with TC of +4). I'll have to sit down and see if there is anything else I need to take into account.
Well, yeah, that's what I mean lol. "Broadly speaking" anyway lol.
The "no-mid-shoe entry" is a biggie to me eliminating completely the possibility of wonging in.
Also, give alot of thought as to whether your bankroll supports the min bet with a risk you are comfortable with.
What does your bankroll (trip or lifetime) need to be to wong in at TC +1 with a $100 bet and what do u spread from there or is that just a flat bet?
Were you saying you will spread 100 to 1000 backcounting?
I apologize for using Hi-lo numbers but I'm more comfortable with them than with KO.
I don't have all the answers, that's one thing you can bet the mortgage on, but I'm just saying question every detail along the way.
Like Snyder says this or that, what were his assumptions? Never jumping a bet? Always jumping a bet? What ROR is associated with his $100 bet?
Blah blah blah.
May I ask what you have done in the past, like last trip say, or is this some new approach, at least in some way, to you?
I got my own way of doing things, for better or worse, probably worse, and they don't include a sim. Just so you know. So feel free to think I'm full of it. Could very well be.
Do you have a sim? I'm guessing no. If you don't, I'm asking why?
But if I played half as often as you, with half the money at risk, in games twice as good, I'd consider a good sim (can you say Norm?) cheap at twice the price if it only answered even one of these questions.
Tell me a lifetime of answers isn't worth one bet. Yet it seems to me alot of people risk alot of money based on I'm not sure what. But, stuff like, "somebody said I should spread more in a crappy game". Or like "I'll take a bigger roll next time" or like "maybe I'll play $25 min next time."
They lose thousands and thousands, wonder why, and it's all chalked up by others as "bad luck". Or "bad variance" so it sounds better. Apparently implying, no matter how great the losses in however short a period of time, just keep doing what you are doing and it will turn around as surely as the sun will rise in the east tomorrow since, after all, you are a Card-Counter, and, as such, you have some God-given right to eventually come out ahead.
There sre so many reasons why one can lose more than even, even if one has one, a sim would suggest, I can't even begin.
I must be in a bad mood tonite for some reason. So apologies for ranting on.
And sorry my glass is almost always half-empty.
But I'm rarely disappointed that way lol.
The "no-mid-shoe entry" is a biggie to me eliminating completely the possibility of wonging in.
Also, give alot of thought as to whether your bankroll supports the min bet with a risk you are comfortable with.
What does your bankroll (trip or lifetime) need to be to wong in at TC +1 with a $100 bet and what do u spread from there or is that just a flat bet?
Were you saying you will spread 100 to 1000 backcounting?
I apologize for using Hi-lo numbers but I'm more comfortable with them than with KO.
I don't have all the answers, that's one thing you can bet the mortgage on, but I'm just saying question every detail along the way.
Like Snyder says this or that, what were his assumptions? Never jumping a bet? Always jumping a bet? What ROR is associated with his $100 bet?
Blah blah blah.
May I ask what you have done in the past, like last trip say, or is this some new approach, at least in some way, to you?
I got my own way of doing things, for better or worse, probably worse, and they don't include a sim. Just so you know. So feel free to think I'm full of it. Could very well be.
Do you have a sim? I'm guessing no. If you don't, I'm asking why?
But if I played half as often as you, with half the money at risk, in games twice as good, I'd consider a good sim (can you say Norm?) cheap at twice the price if it only answered even one of these questions.
Tell me a lifetime of answers isn't worth one bet. Yet it seems to me alot of people risk alot of money based on I'm not sure what. But, stuff like, "somebody said I should spread more in a crappy game". Or like "I'll take a bigger roll next time" or like "maybe I'll play $25 min next time."
They lose thousands and thousands, wonder why, and it's all chalked up by others as "bad luck". Or "bad variance" so it sounds better. Apparently implying, no matter how great the losses in however short a period of time, just keep doing what you are doing and it will turn around as surely as the sun will rise in the east tomorrow since, after all, you are a Card-Counter, and, as such, you have some God-given right to eventually come out ahead.
There sre so many reasons why one can lose more than even, even if one has one, a sim would suggest, I can't even begin.
I must be in a bad mood tonite for some reason. So apologies for ranting on.
And sorry my glass is almost always half-empty.
But I'm rarely disappointed that way lol.