Kelly Conundrum
- Thread starter bj bob
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Here's the backup on that from Andrew Weil -
by Davis, Wade, and Andrew Weil
In Ancient Mesoamerica 1992 3 (1): 51-59.
And
by Davis, Wade, and Andrew Weil
in Journal of Ethnopharmacology 1994 41 (1-2): 1-8.
Profound alteration of consciousness within a few seconds of exhaling. I relax into a deep, peaceful interior awareness. There is nothing scary about the effects and no sense of toxicity. I try to describe my feeling but am unable to talk for the first five minutes and then only with some difficultly. This is a powerful psychoactive drug, one that I think would appeal to most people who like the effects of hallucinogens. For the next hour I feel slow and velvety, with a slight pressure in my head. No long-lasting effects to report. (Andrew T. Weil, personal observation, January 12, 1991)
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Hmm 5x12 = 70 dollars. If you are escorted out at that level of play. You suck.
If you are playing more than 1 hand your playing at roughly 75% of your betting unit x the advantage.
3 hands at 50% of your betting unit x the advantage.
Listen girls, 70 bucks in action is not going to get you banned from anywhere.
If you are playing more than 1 hand your playing at roughly 75% of your betting unit x the advantage.
3 hands at 50% of your betting unit x the advantage.
Listen girls, 70 bucks in action is not going to get you banned from anywhere.
Good.. Thats exactly what I was looking for. Does the math suck?
What is a 12:1 spread at a .5 kelly (5500 Bankroll) with a $5 dollar betting unit with the max bet out?
Look at whats on the table, not at the distractions and react to them. Read the whole thread. Dont get caught up in the moment or a little distraction.
P.S Im on a real swing in the writing of this book. Its very negative so please excuse the ignorance of my posts. They are influenced by a Young Chinese sociology major. She is hot..
What is a 12:1 spread at a .5 kelly (5500 Bankroll) with a $5 dollar betting unit with the max bet out?
Look at whats on the table, not at the distractions and react to them. Read the whole thread. Dont get caught up in the moment or a little distraction.
P.S Im on a real swing in the writing of this book. Its very negative so please excuse the ignorance of my posts. They are influenced by a Young Chinese sociology major. She is hot..
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i understand i'm a 49'er......
besides just look at this: http://www.erowid.org/archive/sonoran_desert_toad/davisWeil.htm
how could anyone resist? lol
besides just look at this: http://www.erowid.org/archive/sonoran_desert_toad/davisWeil.htm
how could anyone resist? lol
So what exactly are the rules and pen of the SD game you play most often that led to that assumption? Do you play a bunch of different penetrations or rules?
Just curious because it's possible it could make a difference as to what constitutes full Kelly.
Anyway, be careful what you ask for - the variances in bankroll can be extremely high playing full kelly. I think lol.
Sounds like you don't have a sim.
Anyway, it seems quite possible to me you might be playing at less than full kelly. Which is a good thing.
So keep doing it for a while lol.
Just curious because it's possible it could make a difference as to what constitutes full Kelly.
Anyway, be careful what you ask for - the variances in bankroll can be extremely high playing full kelly. I think lol.
Sounds like you don't have a sim.
Anyway, it seems quite possible to me you might be playing at less than full kelly. Which is a good thing.
So keep doing it for a while lol.
HE'S PLAYING RENO SINGLE DECK! Sooner or later, usually sooner, you're going to be stuck with negative counts playing single deck.
BTW, out of curiosity I did some basic sims with the restrictive "Reno" (D10) single deck rules... and the results were worse than I expected. Better than play-all in a shoe game, but worse than a decent doubledeck game with good penetration. And to think, when I was bumbling around Reno, I thought I was playing the cat's meow of card counting.
BTW, out of curiosity I did some basic sims with the restrictive "Reno" (D10) single deck rules... and the results were worse than I expected. Better than play-all in a shoe game, but worse than a decent doubledeck game with good penetration. And to think, when I was bumbling around Reno, I thought I was playing the cat's meow of card counting.
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The problem is, try finding good pen in DD these days. In most places you're bettter off playing the shoes than the DD.
SD is one environment where using a stronger, more play-oriented count can help you. With a good count and plenty of indices even Reno D10 rules can be played for a tiny advantage with a flat bet.
SD is one environment where using a stronger, more play-oriented count can help you. With a good count and plenty of indices even Reno D10 rules can be played for a tiny advantage with a flat bet.
Technically it does, but the adjustment is made to the variance not the advantage. The reason BJ players use 76% Kelly is because of the higher variance. Instead of the standard “Bankroll * Advantage” formula we use a modified “Bankroll * Advantage / Variance” formula. This formula works better for most casino games because the payoffs are often not even money so the advantage has to be adjusted for the risk. For example, with a $2,700 BR and a 2% edge you would bet about $2,7000 * .02 / 1.33 = $40.60.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
that's a pretty cool formula....
is there a link that summarizes the various formulas for the ideas such as
advantage, ROR, kelly, trip goals, ect. ? inother words a summarization of most of the formulas useful for AP's. i guess i've reviewed most of them at one time or another but it all gets kind of lost in the mix and a summary of sorts would probably help keep it all in perspective.
is there a link that summarizes the various formulas for the ideas such as
advantage, ROR, kelly, trip goals, ect. ? inother words a summarization of most of the formulas useful for AP's. i guess i've reviewed most of them at one time or another but it all gets kind of lost in the mix and a summary of sorts would probably help keep it all in perspective.