Knock Out Black Jack
- Thread starter GlenRuss
- Start date
Okay, thanks. One other quick question, Zen. I understand that you count all the hands on the table first. Does this include the dealer's upcard? Or do you count all the dealers cards last?
And then I count each card a player hits as they make the hit right? I don't wait until everyone's turn is done do I? I did try searching for the answer to this in a greatly detailed post, but failed to find it. I did see people make suggestions, but nothing that was entirely complete and thorough. Even this KO book isn't through about it. They just tell you to cancel pairs.
And then I count each card a player hits as they make the hit right? I don't wait until everyone's turn is done do I? I did try searching for the answer to this in a greatly detailed post, but failed to find it. I did see people make suggestions, but nothing that was entirely complete and thorough. Even this KO book isn't through about it. They just tell you to cancel pairs.
Actually, I do know that you count ALL cards. I just wasn't sure what you should count first, or what it is most often preferred by the experts.
Zen says count dealer upcard first. Obviously his hit cards you count last. So it's really just down to how I am going to go about counting the second round of cards...
Zen says count dealer upcard first. Obviously his hit cards you count last. So it's really just down to how I am going to go about counting the second round of cards...
TimeKeeper
I figured you knew :laugh: I've known "how" to count for years but never employed it in the casino. It was just too much work for this old man to build up the speed necessary . I admit, my mind is fried from starring at computer programs 9 and 10 hours a day for 37 years! But, to get in on the discussions here on the forum, I have decided to give it a serious attempt. My speed isn't fast enough to be effective yet, but I'm working on it.
We have a trip to Vegas slated for the first of May and will probably hit KC once or twice between now and then, so I have a little time.
I figured you knew :laugh: I've known "how" to count for years but never employed it in the casino. It was just too much work for this old man to build up the speed necessary . I admit, my mind is fried from starring at computer programs 9 and 10 hours a day for 37 years! But, to get in on the discussions here on the forum, I have decided to give it a serious attempt. My speed isn't fast enough to be effective yet, but I'm working on it.
We have a trip to Vegas slated for the first of May and will probably hit KC once or twice between now and then, so I have a little time.
Since this topic is on KO, I have a question. Assume a 6-deck shoe. That calls for an IRC of -20. There are four more low cards in each single deck than high cards according to KO so if the deck is balanced, with each deck played, the count should rise by 4. That is, after two decks are played, you can get in indication of the condition of the remaining cards to be played by multiplying the number of decks in the discard tray by 4 and adding that to the IRC (2 decks played, the IRC would change from -20 to -12). Now, let's say that after those two decks are played the actual running count is -10 instead of -12. You are dealt a hard 16 and the dealer is showing a Face.
Would it be wise to go ahead and stand on the 16? KO indicates NOT to stand until the count reaches -4 in that situation but the probabilities are so close on the hit/stand decision that any information you have, no matter how significant, could and should be used to influence you to make the play that gives you the advantage no matter how minute that advantage is.
How about "insurance" and "even money" decisions. If the count is 7 more than it should be at any point, should you take this "insurance" side bet?
I tried last night, to keep track of such instances but I didn't get enough "tests" to come to any conclusions. Oh, I drew enough hard 16's but the results as I recalled, were so even that I couldn't gather enough data to make any kind of KO variation rules based on them.
Would it be wise to go ahead and stand on the 16? KO indicates NOT to stand until the count reaches -4 in that situation but the probabilities are so close on the hit/stand decision that any information you have, no matter how significant, could and should be used to influence you to make the play that gives you the advantage no matter how minute that advantage is.
How about "insurance" and "even money" decisions. If the count is 7 more than it should be at any point, should you take this "insurance" side bet?
I tried last night, to keep track of such instances but I didn't get enough "tests" to come to any conclusions. Oh, I drew enough hard 16's but the results as I recalled, were so even that I couldn't gather enough data to make any kind of KO variation rules based on them.
This will help you out Mike
Go to http://www.qfit.com/REKOStrateghy.htm
This will answer most of your Questions on KO
The only other suggestion to improve your counting speed at the casino is to backcount while the others play. I just stand back and backcount, it's free unlimted practice, until you can get your speed and accurracy up to par before your money is on the felt. Your mind is not burnt out, just frazzeled, once you get to where you can count, it becomes automatic, much like basic strategy.
Good Luck
Go to http://www.qfit.com/REKOStrateghy.htm
This will answer most of your Questions on KO
The only other suggestion to improve your counting speed at the casino is to backcount while the others play. I just stand back and backcount, it's free unlimted practice, until you can get your speed and accurracy up to par before your money is on the felt. Your mind is not burnt out, just frazzeled, once you get to where you can count, it becomes automatic, much like basic strategy.
Good Luck
There...I've over analyzed it again <sigh>
ZG, I'm getting there. Counting I mean. I mentioned here on the forum, adjusting Insurance and hard 16 hitting policy when using KO against a 6-deck shoe. My thought was that if you have a count of -9 and one deck has been played, that the count is really 7 higher than "expected". My thought was that in a case like this, you might consider "insurance" since the insurance count is +3 or greater. Hard-16 decisions are much more difficult to evaluate since no matter what you do, you are going to lose most of them....even if you get a shot at the hole card!
I tried using the adjustment this past weekend. I may have been extremely lucky, but I think this situation came up three times and I won all three of the insurance bets. Big deal I guess, since I was betting the minimum. The real payoff on the insurance came with the 4 times that the count was truely greater than +3. I won 3 out of 4 of those side bets and I had a chunk bet on those hands!
I guess it wasn't that strange that the dealer was more flabergasted that I'd placed and won the insurance on the smaller bets than on the large ones I had out when the count was high. These folks are not the brightest bulbs in the box. It wasn't that I won the insurance bets on the small wagers but that I declined so many and took so few...but the ones I took, I won and only a couple of times did I decline the bets that she actually had a face down. She commented that she could understand why I'd take insurance when I had a "twenty" and a large bet out, but not why I would insure a 14 with the minimum bet out. I just told her I had a "gut feeling" that she had a face.
If that is an indication, then I probably will only insure the larger high-count bets when playing anywhere else.
But, I'm really posting this to ask you why I shouldn't "over analyze" the KO system. Is it that etched in granite, or is it because it's something like the decompression charts for SCUBA divers? I know those decompression charts were designed with the "fudge factor" already built in...an acceptable risk. But because it was already built in, trying to stretch the decompression times was almost guaranteeing that the diver would suffer the bends!
__________________
ZG, I'm getting there. Counting I mean. I mentioned here on the forum, adjusting Insurance and hard 16 hitting policy when using KO against a 6-deck shoe. My thought was that if you have a count of -9 and one deck has been played, that the count is really 7 higher than "expected". My thought was that in a case like this, you might consider "insurance" since the insurance count is +3 or greater. Hard-16 decisions are much more difficult to evaluate since no matter what you do, you are going to lose most of them....even if you get a shot at the hole card!
I tried using the adjustment this past weekend. I may have been extremely lucky, but I think this situation came up three times and I won all three of the insurance bets. Big deal I guess, since I was betting the minimum. The real payoff on the insurance came with the 4 times that the count was truely greater than +3. I won 3 out of 4 of those side bets and I had a chunk bet on those hands!
I guess it wasn't that strange that the dealer was more flabergasted that I'd placed and won the insurance on the smaller bets than on the large ones I had out when the count was high. These folks are not the brightest bulbs in the box. It wasn't that I won the insurance bets on the small wagers but that I declined so many and took so few...but the ones I took, I won and only a couple of times did I decline the bets that she actually had a face down. She commented that she could understand why I'd take insurance when I had a "twenty" and a large bet out, but not why I would insure a 14 with the minimum bet out. I just told her I had a "gut feeling" that she had a face.
If that is an indication, then I probably will only insure the larger high-count bets when playing anywhere else.
But, I'm really posting this to ask you why I shouldn't "over analyze" the KO system. Is it that etched in granite, or is it because it's something like the decompression charts for SCUBA divers? I know those decompression charts were designed with the "fudge factor" already built in...an acceptable risk. But because it was already built in, trying to stretch the decompression times was almost guaranteeing that the diver would suffer the bends!
__________________
The above quote is an example of over-analyzing run amock - KO is an UB'd RC system and you are attempting to impose a defacto TC conversion. Given your technical skills maybe you should switch to TKO (true-counted KO). Otherwise, just stick to the published indices -or- the 'GriftKO' indices posted by me here back in November -or- the REKO rounded indices posted by me here last month.
BUT if you are going to "ADJUST" according to the #decks remaining than learn TKO indices and use a TC-adjustment approach. zg
BUT if you are going to "ADJUST" according to the #decks remaining than learn TKO indices and use a TC-adjustment approach. zg
Running Amok
Allow me to run amok some more.
I've read about all of these "staying under the radar" tactics that counters employ. If I have understood it correctly:
The typical advantage the house has over a perfect Basic Strategy Blackjack player in a double deck game at the Plaza is .29%. Now, counting yields around 1.5% gain in advantage to the player so the player is really playing the house at only a 1.21% advantage. That’s not much. For even numbers, lets say you are getting 60 hands in every hour. Your normal bet is $5 but can ramp up to $25 during favorable counts which occur only 20% of the time. Call it an average bet of $10 per hand. So, we have 60 hands per hour multiplied by $10 which gives $600 total amount wagered in an hour. You have an expected advantage of 1.21% which means that you can expect to profit by $7.26 each hour of play!
Okay, $7.26. Your average bet is $10. If you lose only ONE of those average bets, or two minimum bets because of intentionally misplayed hands used to avoid casino scrutiny, then you have wipped out your profit margin! Is it worth it to play it safe?
I guess I'll find out in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll hit the Lucky Ladies. Either that or my math is way off (probably is.)
Allow me to run amok some more.
I've read about all of these "staying under the radar" tactics that counters employ. If I have understood it correctly:
The typical advantage the house has over a perfect Basic Strategy Blackjack player in a double deck game at the Plaza is .29%. Now, counting yields around 1.5% gain in advantage to the player so the player is really playing the house at only a 1.21% advantage. That’s not much. For even numbers, lets say you are getting 60 hands in every hour. Your normal bet is $5 but can ramp up to $25 during favorable counts which occur only 20% of the time. Call it an average bet of $10 per hand. So, we have 60 hands per hour multiplied by $10 which gives $600 total amount wagered in an hour. You have an expected advantage of 1.21% which means that you can expect to profit by $7.26 each hour of play!
Okay, $7.26. Your average bet is $10. If you lose only ONE of those average bets, or two minimum bets because of intentionally misplayed hands used to avoid casino scrutiny, then you have wipped out your profit margin! Is it worth it to play it safe?
I guess I'll find out in a couple of weeks. Maybe I'll hit the Lucky Ladies. Either that or my math is way off (probably is.)
Systems trader.
Its always good to read these posts for peoples input.
Just to correct one point. It is an unbalanced system but the extra card, the 7, is a + not a -. final count should be +4.
I too used to play the Hi/Lo but could never get the TC conversion quick enough. I would loose the count and quickly go back to playing BS. When I was counting you could tell. I watched every card that came out. I changed around 2007 to the KO system after a trip to Vegas.
I have played this system fo a Few of years now and things I found helped me during actual casino playand in the early days included,
Sitting at the later boxes so you get a chance to more comfortably count the cards before you have to make a decision. People will always pause for effect unless they realy know how to play and thats your chance to gather yourself.
Initialy when using the count as layed out in the book I also used my feet. Bothe feet on the cross member of the stool, Neutral. L foot on table base or forward = Minus count R foot same = plus count. you only need to make the switch at the new deal and you can remember the PP + KC. I droped this after a while and just recalled the number and didn't bother with Mi 1,+ Mi 28 = 29. I still use the book IRC, PP and KC.
As for side counts I count Aces purely so I have a picture in my head of how many may be left in play. After all its' the black jack's we like. Unlucky if they are behind the cut card.
Betting stratergy is flexible . It does not have to be as ridged as the stratergy may seem, you can add 1 or 2 units to your suposed max for the count then later subtract 1 or 2. Even betting a couple more in the negative will help disguise your play.
The thing I disliked the most initialy was the length of time you seemed to spend placing minimum bets. It can be frustrating. It can seem like a hell of a long time before you can put your big bets out and when you get all those small cards come out in 1 deal and the next time you go to bet you go from $10 to say $60 -$70 in one go because the count for your spread says you should, do this a few times and you start drawing attention to yourself. Running out on the big negative count is ok on your simulator but you can't realy do it in casino play unless you leave altogether and go to another table preferably another pit or again they will get wise to you.
Finally, Stick with the math in the long run it is correct.
Have fun playing.
PS
It seems to work better in the double deck games than in the bigger shoe games.
Its always good to read these posts for peoples input.
Just to correct one point. It is an unbalanced system but the extra card, the 7, is a + not a -. final count should be +4.
I too used to play the Hi/Lo but could never get the TC conversion quick enough. I would loose the count and quickly go back to playing BS. When I was counting you could tell. I watched every card that came out. I changed around 2007 to the KO system after a trip to Vegas.
I have played this system fo a Few of years now and things I found helped me during actual casino playand in the early days included,
Sitting at the later boxes so you get a chance to more comfortably count the cards before you have to make a decision. People will always pause for effect unless they realy know how to play and thats your chance to gather yourself.
Initialy when using the count as layed out in the book I also used my feet. Bothe feet on the cross member of the stool, Neutral. L foot on table base or forward = Minus count R foot same = plus count. you only need to make the switch at the new deal and you can remember the PP + KC. I droped this after a while and just recalled the number and didn't bother with Mi 1,+ Mi 28 = 29. I still use the book IRC, PP and KC.
As for side counts I count Aces purely so I have a picture in my head of how many may be left in play. After all its' the black jack's we like. Unlucky if they are behind the cut card.
Betting stratergy is flexible . It does not have to be as ridged as the stratergy may seem, you can add 1 or 2 units to your suposed max for the count then later subtract 1 or 2. Even betting a couple more in the negative will help disguise your play.
The thing I disliked the most initialy was the length of time you seemed to spend placing minimum bets. It can be frustrating. It can seem like a hell of a long time before you can put your big bets out and when you get all those small cards come out in 1 deal and the next time you go to bet you go from $10 to say $60 -$70 in one go because the count for your spread says you should, do this a few times and you start drawing attention to yourself. Running out on the big negative count is ok on your simulator but you can't realy do it in casino play unless you leave altogether and go to another table preferably another pit or again they will get wise to you.
Finally, Stick with the math in the long run it is correct.
Have fun playing.
PS
It seems to work better in the double deck games than in the bigger shoe games.
Interesting post to bring this one back up. Can't even remember when I came online here last time.
Bottom line though is: BJ is pretty much dead (at least in Vegas) b/c of the greediness of the casinos. Rules have changed so dramatically over the last 5 years it's not even funny and sure they shouldn't even call it BJ anymore.
No casino at the strip is worth playing anymore. 6:5 is a joke. 55% penetration makes it worthless to even count. CSM's don't make it better. It's easier to just give your money to the bell man. No hassle.
I personally stopped counting. I'll go to Terrible's if someone knows it: Double Deck 3:2, 65 to 70 % penetration, friendly dealer. I'm using a progression now. Simple as hell, you can have fun, no counting, and best of all you can drink which you can't really do when counting (losing the count
).
As an example: In just 25 Minutes with an initial stake of 100 bucks in 5$ chips I ended up with $985. Not bad at all. between 7 and 9 out of 10 games I'm up with the progression.
Bottom line though is: BJ is pretty much dead (at least in Vegas) b/c of the greediness of the casinos. Rules have changed so dramatically over the last 5 years it's not even funny and sure they shouldn't even call it BJ anymore.
No casino at the strip is worth playing anymore. 6:5 is a joke. 55% penetration makes it worthless to even count. CSM's don't make it better. It's easier to just give your money to the bell man. No hassle.
I personally stopped counting. I'll go to Terrible's if someone knows it: Double Deck 3:2, 65 to 70 % penetration, friendly dealer. I'm using a progression now. Simple as hell, you can have fun, no counting, and best of all you can drink which you can't really do when counting (losing the count
).As an example: In just 25 Minutes with an initial stake of 100 bucks in 5$ chips I ended up with $985. Not bad at all. between 7 and 9 out of 10 games I'm up with the progression.
Mackhack said:
I personally stopped counting. I'll go to Terrible's if someone knows it: Double Deck 3:2, 65 to 70 % penetration, friendly dealer. I'm using a progression now. Simple as hell, you can have fun, no counting, and best of all you can drink which you can't really do when counting (losing the count ).
As an example: In just 25 Minutes with an initial stake of 100 bucks in 5$ chips I ended up with $985. Not bad at all. between 7 and 9 out of 10 games I'm up with the progression.
).As an example: In just 25 Minutes with an initial stake of 100 bucks in 5$ chips I ended up with $985. Not bad at all. between 7 and 9 out of 10 games I'm up with the progression.
Ko!
I was a KO-Full user for about a year, so if you have any other questions about the system, don't be afraid to ask...
I understand the problem with starting on a negative number for an IRC. Simply adjusting it to "0" makes everything much simpler, as it has been stated. One of my buddies who was using it at the time with me like to actually start at the given IRC in the book, but instead of saying "negative #(whatever number)" you could substitute the word "drop" for "negative". So, in this case for a 6D shoe, you could start the IRC at DROP 20. This makes thinking about the count much easier because you don't have to deal with taking the time to think about long words.
KO is proven to be a successful card counting system in the long run, but some advantage is given up for its simplicity. Because it is not as accurate as a level two or three system, you have a greater RoR, which therefore means you must be SUFFICIENTLY funded in order to be successful because you will experience bad variance and bad swings!
Trust the mathematics provided by the system and use the indices. Small sessions are meaningless whether you're up 50units or down 50units. You need to understand that, on a graph of your bankroll, the trend will never be a line which increases linearly (y=mx+b). Your BR will peak, fall, peak, and fall BUT the overall result will be an averaged line with a POSITIVE slope.
If you're interested in a stronger version of KO, there is TKO (True Counted KO). There's a thread or two on it and a book already written. It's called The Color of Blackjack by Daniel Dravot. And, as I've stated in these other threads, TKO is more accurate in estimating advantage and betting opportunities. There are points in 6D shoe games where you should actually be betting more, earlier than the KC. If you are prepared for the same system, but with deck estimation, then you should certainly move on to it. It's better.
Hope this helps!
I was a KO-Full user for about a year, so if you have any other questions about the system, don't be afraid to ask...
I understand the problem with starting on a negative number for an IRC. Simply adjusting it to "0" makes everything much simpler, as it has been stated. One of my buddies who was using it at the time with me like to actually start at the given IRC in the book, but instead of saying "negative #(whatever number)" you could substitute the word "drop" for "negative". So, in this case for a 6D shoe, you could start the IRC at DROP 20. This makes thinking about the count much easier because you don't have to deal with taking the time to think about long words.
KO is proven to be a successful card counting system in the long run, but some advantage is given up for its simplicity. Because it is not as accurate as a level two or three system, you have a greater RoR, which therefore means you must be SUFFICIENTLY funded in order to be successful because you will experience bad variance and bad swings!
Trust the mathematics provided by the system and use the indices. Small sessions are meaningless whether you're up 50units or down 50units. You need to understand that, on a graph of your bankroll, the trend will never be a line which increases linearly (y=mx+b). Your BR will peak, fall, peak, and fall BUT the overall result will be an averaged line with a POSITIVE slope.
If you're interested in a stronger version of KO, there is TKO (True Counted KO). There's a thread or two on it and a book already written. It's called The Color of Blackjack by Daniel Dravot. And, as I've stated in these other threads, TKO is more accurate in estimating advantage and betting opportunities. There are points in 6D shoe games where you should actually be betting more, earlier than the KC. If you are prepared for the same system, but with deck estimation, then you should certainly move on to it. It's better.
Hope this helps!