Hi, I just started playing blackjack a couple weeks ago and I am really interested about counting cards. My question is, can you count cards effectively if you just sit down at a random table and not knowing how many decks have been played. I usually play with 6 decks. Thank you for the advice
Learning how to count cards
- Thread starter timmi65
- Start date
callipygian
Well-Known Member
Yes, you can count cards effectively, but no, it won't give you a big advantage.timmi65 said:
The reason is that if you sit down in the middle of a shoe, you will, in effect, be getting very poor penetration. The true count formula is running count divided by unseen decks, so by starting in the middle the number of unseen decks will always be very large. While card counting will work, you will not identify enough high counts to turn a profit.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Entering mid shoe without backcounting
Not sure but I think you are asking about entering a shoe game, mid shoe and are wondering if this is effective. You will already know how many decks have been played by looking at the discard tray, so two decks in the tray, 4 decks left.
This is not an effective method of play because you have very poor penetration. In my example, if two decks have been dealt and 1.5 decks are behind the cut card, you are looking at around 40% penetration.
Often, when I see a dealer who cuts only about a deck, I might sit down near the end of a shoe so I am in for the start of the next shoe. In this case I just flat bet till the next shoe, but more often I just wait and enter after the shuffle.
ihate17
Not sure but I think you are asking about entering a shoe game, mid shoe and are wondering if this is effective. You will already know how many decks have been played by looking at the discard tray, so two decks in the tray, 4 decks left.
This is not an effective method of play because you have very poor penetration. In my example, if two decks have been dealt and 1.5 decks are behind the cut card, you are looking at around 40% penetration.
Often, when I see a dealer who cuts only about a deck, I might sit down near the end of a shoe so I am in for the start of the next shoe. In this case I just flat bet till the next shoe, but more often I just wait and enter after the shuffle.
ihate17
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
actually in most any casino you could know how many decks have been played when you sit at a random table. all you have to do is look at the discard tray and estimate how many decks have been dealt.timmi65 said:
that being the case and if you were using hi/lo then you could by counting the cards as they are dealt determine a true count by dividing the running count by the number of decks unseen (in this case the decks in the discard tray would need to be considered as unseen as well as the decks left to be dealt).
this would not likely be a effective approach since initially your divisor (decks unseen) is going to be relatively large and your numerator (running count) relatively small, hence your not likely to get a large enough true count to determine a worth while advantage.
also entering at a table where you have no information and a significant number of cards has already been dealt is effectively decreasing penetration which is a disadvatageous factor for a card counter. penetration is usually determined by how the dealer places the cut card (the more cards available to be dealt before the cut card the better). but theoretically you could determine a true count and advantage or disadvantage by sitting at a random table, it's just not a very effective tact.
GAGE COUNTY
Active Member
just sit down towards the end of the shoe and say" go ahead and finish it out" to the the dealer. Or " its bad luck to come in now, i'll wait" No sense in playing if you could be at a disadvantage. Then when he shuffles you'll know exactly what the count is.