Kasi said:
Yes you're quite right about my incorrect belief lol. Although I still think it may have some use as cover lol. If I were going to count and think about doing it, believe me, I wouldn't rely on my figures I'd just run some sims or just not do it.
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Kasi said:
Anyway, in real life, I don't even pretend I'm playing with an advantage or even know. It's possible sometimes maybe I actually am. For a shoe or 2 lol. But I'm not "card-counting" in any "AP" way in my mind because I'm not applying bets in any consistent way. Even though I am actually am card-counting lol and if I want to make a move and try to make-up a min unit or 2 in my voodoo way at some point , why not at least do in a + count. It can't hurt. I have no goals except maybe it'd be nice to win a few bucks or finish this session ahead. So it really doesn't take too much. Maybe I win a few 10 or 20 unit bets or more here and there. Maybe I don't. Whatever I feel like. I have no way of measuring my results against any "card-counting" plan.
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on the other hand i like the idea of taking a shot at winning maybe some proportion of what you've lost if that bet is made at a positive count. i mean if your going to do that it's best to do so when your chances of getting a blackjack or succesful double down are greatest. i mean if you view your waiting bets as relatively negligible then in a sense it's almost like as if your wonging in for those make your move bets.
Kasi said:
I analyzed years ago possibly counting in AC but given win rates, how much I'd play in a few years, the games, how much I really wanted to stand around back-counting, if I could, how much trip roll I should take, etc but I rejected it. Plain and simple. I was unwilling to always bet in the way I was supposed to with a risk I liked and the bankroll to bet against. I could be dead before I reached N0 lol. I'd rather make a $100 bet at a $5 table and if I win, presto, I have the EV of a CC for the next 1000 hands. If I lose I don't even have half the SD he might have in an hour. Kind of thing. Whatever, had I tried, at least I'd know what to expect. And I'd keep a log that had more in it than I won $100 today.
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Kasi said:
so it just never would occur to me to attribute any results I may have because I'm a "counter" just because I count although sometimes it seems to me there may not be a whole lot of difference between what I do and what others may do.
Perhaps what separates your fuzzy counting and my fuzzy betting is that maybe we don't really fully think of ourselves as "AP counters", don't mean to speak for you lol, but I certainly don't, even though we may count a little or a lot in our different ways or whatever.
Maybe we're just more willing to admit any results are actually probably more likely due to luck than the result of any card-counting plan.
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Perhaps what separates your fuzzy counting and my fuzzy betting is that maybe we don't really fully think of ourselves as "AP counters", don't mean to speak for you lol, but I certainly don't, even though we may count a little or a lot in our different ways or whatever.
Maybe we're just more willing to admit any results are actually probably more likely due to luck than the result of any card-counting plan.
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but yeah now where i'm using this fuzzy counting there isn't any way to know how to interpret the results. but when i practice the approach on CVBJ i do have the log to where i can check how my bets correlate with the count and compare that to some simulation. problem with that is who knows how well i can hit those marks in a real casino. but yeah now for my real play i can just thank my lucky stars if i ever start getting ahead.
Kasi said:
Maybe I'm an idealist.
Let's find out.
Bojack - you have a log? Maybe at least bet almost always within some kind of a general plan? Play much without a plan? Know about how much you played and what to expect under maybe a few different scenarios? Maybe periodically analyze expected reults to actual in some general way anyway?
RJT? Sonny?
Is there a snowball's chance you'd even wonder if you were lucky or good after 50 or 100000 hands?
Sorry this is in voodoo - I got carried away. What you guys say is no way voodoo to me lol.
Let's find out.
Bojack - you have a log? Maybe at least bet almost always within some kind of a general plan? Play much without a plan? Know about how much you played and what to expect under maybe a few different scenarios? Maybe periodically analyze expected reults to actual in some general way anyway?
RJT? Sonny?
Is there a snowball's chance you'd even wonder if you were lucky or good after 50 or 100000 hands?
Sorry this is in voodoo - I got carried away. What you guys say is no way voodoo to me lol.
and yes it would indeed be interesting to know their views on all of that.