Long term profit is seeing the big picture

[tthree]

Thanks everyone

Thanks for all the support guys. I appreciate it.

To LG, while there is truth to what you say the most successful APs I know follow my advice exactly. They use the absolute strongest counts and make huge profits consistently with a small bet spread because they don't need a big spread. Their variance is tiny so a losing week is very very rare due to a teensy NO. They hit stores realizing a hit of a couple thousand is the most they should shoot for since they want to be welcomed back the next day. If they hit the same store more than once in a short period of time for their win limit, they don't go back for a while.

Playing this way has resulted in the lose of no stores for more than 2 decades and wins per year that put them at the top of this sight's earning survey. They have proven that the approach I outlined is the most long term profit maximizing for any bankroll. I play a small spread due to bankroll issues first, I probably would with a much larger bankroll too. A 1 to 10 spread is very lucrative at the best games with a strong system. These APs I am referring to use more like a 1 to 6 or 8 spread because their restriction for betting their largest bets are rarely hit as you need a huge advantage. I think their style of play is the long term winner. I mean you reduce variance with a very profitable small spread that incorporates other AP techniques with the strongest system and your NO becomes so small that those downswings are small and very rare. You made variance your best buddy not your worst nightmare. You have combined the optimal math with an understanding of the real world constraints that will also make your play less optimal.

LG can make lots of money with what he describes but I think he would be surprised how much more efficiently he would make money with an AP grad school approach. Most people or animals for that matter are lazy and follow the path least resistance but putting in the time to be able to play a very profitable small spread at a reasonable max bet that keeps the best games open so they are the only games you play is worth the effort. It is the art of being the most successful AP.

As to the idea of the great promos must be killed. I never bought into the idea that wrong behavior is okay because others do it or worse. You not only kill that promo but assure any future promos will be weak. Again very selfish and shortsighted thinking. A better approach is to organize an enforcer squad that beats these sorts of people to within an inch of their life so they don't kill the existence off the killer promo altogether.

It reminds me of hunters who try to organize other hunters in the area to let the small bucks walk by safely, shooting the does for meat so there will be lots of big trophy bucks to shot. I counter the arguments of the deniers who say if they don't shoot the little buck someone else will by pointing out that may be true most of the time but the one thing you know for sure is if you shoot that young buck it will not walk by you as a trophy. If they ever get to my house they see some of the trophy bucks I have killed (I stopped mounting them many years ago. How many do you need on your wall.) they comment on how they wish they could hunt were I hunt or some other idea they have about why they don't get them. When I tell them I get those bucks off of public hunting land and didn't start getting them until I let the young bucks walk so they have learned it is safe to be in the spots I hunt because they didn't die when they walked by three years prior.

The parallels to the AP's hunt are amazing. Don't hunt in the same spot to much. Rotate dozens of good spots. Don't prematurely kill your trophy, food can be had without doing that. Make your trophy comfortable to be in your presence or your spot. Try to encourage others who frequent your area to follow the same guidelines. If your spot has to many shortsighted hunters you will have no or few trophy bucks and those will be so smart as to be not worth hunting. The buck that survived the gauntlet knows all the hunters tricks and easily avoids all but the most contrarian hunter. He usually falls to a hunter who does things no veteran hunter would do.

LG, I just hope you bet that big spread or max bet for other reasons than you never honed your skills enough to use anything better than a weak counting system. If you bet large max bets with huge variance because you never put in the effort to play the best game you are capable of that just makes me sad. I know many are in it for the thrill and collecting well at stores without large variance may not be what they are looking for.

I tried to be more civil through my pain after realizing that for the last 2 weeks my posts have been an unconscious venting mechanism. Hopefully I was successful.

 

[aslan]

Thanks for all the support guys. I appreciate it.

To LG, while there is truth to what you say the most successful APs I know follow my advice exactly. They use the absolute strongest counts and make huge profits consistently with a small bet spread because they don't need a big spread. Their variance is tiny so a losing week is very very rare due to a teensy NO. They hit stores realizing a hit of a couple thousand is the most they should shoot for since they want to be welcomed back the next day. If they hit the same store more than once in a short period of time for their win limit, they don't go back for a while.

Playing this way has resulted in the lose of no stores for more than 2 decades and wins per year that put them at the top of this sight's earning survey. They have proven that the approach I outlined is the most long term profit maximizing for any bankroll. I play a small spread due to bankroll issues first, I probably would with a much larger bankroll too. A 1 to 10 spread is very lucrative at the best games with a strong system. These APs I am referring to use more like a 1 to 6 or 8 spread because their restriction for betting their largest bets are rarely hit as you need a huge advantage. I think their style of play is the long term winner. I mean you reduce variance with a very profitable small spread that incorporates other AP techniques with the strongest system and your NO becomes so small that those downswings are small and very rare. You made variance your best buddy not your worst nightmare. You have combined the optimal math with an understanding of the real world constraints that will also make your play less optimal.

LG can make lots of money with what he describes but I think he would be surprised how much more efficiently he would make money with an AP grad school approach. Most people or animals for that matter are lazy and follow the path least resistance but putting in the time to be able to play a very profitable small spread at a reasonable max bet that keeps the best games open so they are the only games you play is worth the effort. It is the art of being the most successful AP.

As to the idea of the great promos must be killed. I never bought into the idea that wrong behavior is okay because others do it or worse. You not only kill that promo but assure any future promos will be weak. Again very selfish and shortsighted thinking. A better approach is to organize an enforcer squad that beats these sorts of people to within an inch of their life so they don't kill the existence off the killer promo altogether.

It reminds me of hunters who try to organize other hunters in the area to let the small bucks walk by safely, shooting the does for meat so there will be lots of big trophy bucks to shot. I counter the arguments of the deniers who say if they don't shoot the little buck someone else will by pointing out that may be true most of the time but the one thing you know for sure is if you shoot that young buck it will not walk by you as a trophy. If they ever get to my house they see some of the trophy bucks I have killed (I stopped mounting them many years ago. How many do you need on your wall.) they comment on how they wish they could hunt were I hunt or some other idea they have about why they don't get them. When I tell them I get those bucks off of public hunting land and didn't start getting them until I let the young bucks walk so they have learned it is safe to be in the spots I hunt because they didn't die when they walked by three years prior.

The parallels to the AP's hunt are amazing. Don't hunt in the same spot to much. Rotate dozens of good spots. Don't prematurely kill your trophy, food can be had without doing that. Make your trophy comfortable to be in your presence or your spot. Try to encourage others who frequent your area to follow the same guidelines. If your spot has to many shortsighted hunters you will have no or few trophy bucks and those will be so smart as to be not worth hunting. The buck that survived the gauntlet knows all the hunters tricks and easily avoids all but the most contrarian hunter. He usually falls to a hunter who does things no veteran hunter would do.

LG, I just hope you bet that big spread or max bet for other reasons than you never honed your skills enough to use anything better than a weak counting system. If you bet large max bets with huge variance because you never put in the effort to play the best game you are capable of that just makes me sad. I know many are in it for the thrill and collecting well at stores without large variance may not be what they are looking for.

I tried to be more civil through my pain after realizing that for the last 2 weeks my posts have been an unconscious venting mechanism. Hopefully I was successful.

Now that you brought it up, do you have numbers to back up your remarks about a stronger counting system being all that is needed to minimize variance and ensure a good win record with a lesser betting spread. I am not challenging it; I'd just like to know the numbers, because I never realized that a strong count was really all that much a panacea for all the evils attendant to card counting-- poor rules, poor pen, wide swings in variance, a 1/2% to 2% overall advantage, sweaty surveillance, the need for camo, etc. I have always thought the difference between win rates of strong and weak systems was more in the range of wringing out a few more dollars an hour, not revolutionizing one's basic approach altogether. My mind is open, and I am willing to learn. If you are correct, your approach is what I am looking for. But to be fair, this should be hashed out by all the experts here in the Forum. Thanks for your remarks. These kinds of discussions can only serve to move the ball forward for everyone participating.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

To LG, while there is truth to what you say the most successful APs I know follow my advice exactly. They use the absolute strongest counts and make huge profits consistently with a small bet spread because they don't need a big spread. Their variance is tiny so a losing week is very very rare due to a teensy NO. They hit stores realizing a hit of a couple thousand is the most they should shoot for since they want to be welcomed back the next day. If they hit the same store more than once in a short period of time for their win limit, they don't go back for a while.

Playing this way has resulted in the lose of no stores for more than 2 decades and wins per year that put them at the top of this sight's earning survey.

There are a few problems here. First of all, you seem to be under the impression that the “strongest” counting systems will solve all of the counter’s problems. As Aslan correctly pointed out, these include poor game conditions, heat, inadequate bankroll, etc. Someone using Uston APC with full indices and “a couple” of side counts (who does this?) on weak games will do much more worse than a Hi-Lo counter with 50 or so indices on a strong game.

And a smaller bet spread comes at the cost of a diminished edge. It may be less volatile, but to just claim that your friends make “huge” profits with a small spread simply because they “don’t need” a larger spread doesn’t really tell us anything other than that your friends like betting conservatively and are comfortable with a small edge. Like I said, different goals.

As far as being welcome back the next day—and I hope I’m not paraphrasing too heavily from JG’s Ultimate Rant—I don’t think this goal has as much merit now as it did twenty years ago. If you’re still welcome at every single casino you’ve played at in two decades, you’ve been playing a weak game and have left large sums of money on the table, period. In fact, no backoffs or barrings in twenty years is quite a stretch. These guys are making “huge profits?”

Finally, you say that this is the strategy of the most successful APs you know. Well, the most successful APs out there are not ones that you (or I, for that matter) know. I hope I’m not getting in over my head by saying that the most successful APs in the field are not following your advice exactly, if at all.

They have proven that the approach I outlined is the most long term profit maximizing for any bankroll. I play a small spread due to bankroll issues first, I probably would with a much larger bankroll too. A 1 to 10 spread is very lucrative at the best games with a strong system.

The first part of your statement is completely incorrect. If you want to talk about “profit maximizing for an bankroll” in the same breath as a risk-averse, variance-reducing, conservative strategy, then you’ll need to provide a little more support than you did here. Again, your strategy is a good one if your goal is to reduce variance and not play aggressively, but to suggest that it’s the optimal approach, and even optimal for everyone? Come on.

By the way, a 1-60 spread is more lucrative than a 1-10 spread on that same game. Both show a strong betting correlation. Both will get you nailed after any prolonged exposure, especially if you’re playing for “huge profits” on strong games. The 1-60 spread may get you nailed sooner than the 1-10 spread, but again, it may not be everyone’s goal to be welcome in every casino in the country for the next couple of decades, especially with the games getting worse and worse every year. I’m not saying that you should go and get barred everywhere, but I am saying that longevity isn’t what it used to be.

LG can make lots of money with what he describes but I think he would be surprised how much more efficiently he would make money with an AP grad school approach. Most people or animals for that matter are lazy and follow the path least resistance but putting in the time to be able to play a very profitable small spread at a reasonable max bet that keeps the best games open so they are the only games you play is worth the effort. It is the art of being the most successful AP.

I think it’s a bit insulting that you imply that your strategy is one of discipline and mine is one of impulse. I don’t think that anyone will argue that the way I play involves the path of least resistance. I also don’t think that your approach will get the money more efficiently. You know what I think will? Playing stronger games, learning additional techniques, spreading your action out across multiple venues (this is better for longevity than playing with a weak edge, even) and playing aggressively. Different strokes.

As to the idea of the great promos must be killed. I never bought into the idea that wrong behavior is okay because others do it or worse. You not only kill that promo but assure any future promos will be weak. Again very selfish and shortsighted thinking. A better approach is to organize an enforcer squad that beats these sorts of people to within an inch of their life so they don't kill the existence off the killer promo altogether.

Aggressively playing a good promo is “wrong,” but intimidating other APs that don’t conform to your promo protocol isn’t? Without even bringing the trophy hunting parallels into the equation, I have to question your concern for ethics. While I agree that it would be nice if a good promo (without a predetermined expiration date) were milked inconspicuously by polite and thoughtful pros, it would be incredibly naïve to think that this could ever happen in the real world. Whether you think it’s right or not, that’s how people will play these promos. You can either get the money or complain when everyone else does. It’s a harsh game.

LG, I just hope you bet that big spread or max bet for other reasons than you never honed your skills enough to use anything better than a weak counting system. If you bet large max bets with huge variance because you never put in the effort to play the best game you are capable of that just makes me sad. I know many are in it for the thrill and collecting well at stores without large variance may not be what they are looking for.

I’ll admit that I use the “weak” Hi-Lo counting system. I don’t opt for high-variance plays unless they represent a solid potential return, and a big spread can equal a big edge. And I know you won’t approve, but I don’t do a lot of counting these days (which is a shame because I feel like I’m actually quite skilled at counting and enjoy the stimulation in short intervals). I could further hone my skills, move to a level-2 or 3 counting system, learn all the indices and implement side counts; but to be honest, I find that learning new games and new strategies is a better use of my time. The modern AP can’t afford to be a specialist, in my opinion.

I tried to be more civil through my pain after realizing that for the last 2 weeks my posts have been an unconscious venting mechanism. Hopefully I was successful.

No worries there, your posts and chat room dialogue have been perfectly civil, if a bit misinformed (legality of various techniques). Besides, anyone that hopes to become a successful AP will need to start developing some thick skin if they haven’t already. I hope that I won’t come off as rude or condescending in my posts in this thread, as that’s not my intention. I’ll simply reiterate what I’ve said a few times already: not everyone has the same goals, and what’s good for one person may be terrible for another.

Best of luck on your recovery.

 

[sagefr0g]

....

Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree
As to the idea of the great promos must be killed. I never bought into the idea that wrong behavior is okay because others do it or worse. You not only kill that promo but assure any future promos will be weak. Again very selfish and shortsighted thinking. A better approach is to organize an enforcer squad that beats these sorts of people to within an inch of their life so they don't kill the existence off the killer promo altogether.

Aggressively playing a good promo is “wrong,” but intimidating other APs that don’t conform to your promo protocol isn’t? Without even bringing the trophy hunting parallels into the equation, I have to question your concern for ethics. While I agree that it would be nice if a good promo (without a predetermined expiration date) were milked inconspicuously by polite and thoughtful pros, it would be incredibly naïve to think that this could ever happen in the real world. Whether you think it’s right or not, that’s how people will play these promos. You can either get the money or complain when everyone else does. It’s a harsh game.


...

another factor of promo's, good games, ect. is the fact that there is the grape vine, most stuff is gonna be heard through the grape vine. there's lots more hustlers out there than most would suspect and the sad fact of the matter is that word is going to get around. another factor is the relatively scarcity of positive edge plays to go around, so if there is a juicy opportunity out there, these guys will more often than not pick up stakes and head for the bronze ring.
.... three here's hoping for a speedy recovery.

 

[blackjack avenger]

lowering variance not always desirable

Lowering spread to lower short term variance is not desirable. This causes SCORE to lower, N0 (long run) to increase. These are not desirable.

To lower spreads for camo is one thing. To lower for variance reasons is not correct. If one never spreads they would also have very low variance.

 

[The Chaperone]

I agree with pretty much everything Lonesome Gambler has said in this thread. There is a lot of misinformation in tthree's posts, especially the last one. In particular, using a stronger count isn't going to magically change the variance of the game of blackjack. And LOL at a guy who uses 'a small spread due to bankroll issues' teaching AP grad school. Lastly, threatening other APs with physical harm because they don't ascribe to your method of play is truly beyond the pale.

 

[Friendo]

Lowering spread to lower short term variance is not desirable. This causes SCORE to lower, N0 (long run) to increase. These are not desirable.

Agree. Lower spreads are a necessity brought on by house scrutiny; they are not a mathematical blessing in any sense. I have never run a simulation in which lower spreads do not increase N0. A stronger count will not make up for the higher N0 caused by dropping from 12:1 to 8:1.

Further, stronger counts with sidecounts make little difference. A game with a SCORE of 32.00 using Zen will increase to maybe 33.50 using HiOpt II with 3 sidecounts. I can't see how this makes any game, anywhere that is unplayable with Zen (or High-Low) suddenly playable.

tthree has some good advice, but some of the stuff he has said here is simply not supportable.

 

[tthree]

Look at the title of the thread. You guys are proving my point. Why do casinos run promos? They want to attract a lot of people over a long period of time banking that a good gambling experience will bring them back. They figure they will lose X but they will make it back later after those that visited during their month long promotion come back. What happens people like LG show up the month long of +EV to a BS player is gone in a day or two. What happens to the big picture? Next time they want to attract people to the casino for a month and have a lot of happy customers the you ponder: Why don't we offer this great deal to attract people for a month it will only cost us X based on how people play. No that is to generous , it will attract the wrong people, the promo will last 2 days and we will lose 10X not 30 days and we lose X. Well how bad a promo do we need to have to still attract people but only lose what we plan. How about drawing entries? We could give away a stay at one of our suites. We could give away a car to one lucky winner. Great maybe you made a good score if variance for that short time cooperated but your long term profit from promos has been totally destroyed. I guess someone didn't see the big picture.

Now you start talking about the real games. When I said the strongest counting system I was referring to all the adjustments in my first post not simply higher level versus lower level. Each part of the original post decreases variance while increasing long term profit. The casinos don't bat an eyelash at a certain level of play and win amount. You can return to the best games over and over. You don't have to play any crappy rules or pen if you cooperate with the limits they are comfortable with and any store you won to often in a short time frame give a rest. Now we hear others here lament who didn't cooperate with casino tolerance in the past:
1) poor playing conditions.
Cooperating with casino tolerances means you are welcome at the best games.
2)Heat
Cooperating with casino tolerance levels by definition takes care of heat
3) In adequate bankroll
Smaller top bet is a must for an inadequate bankroll.
4) a 1 to 60 spread is more profitable than 1 to 10 at the same game.
We aren't going to be playing the same game for very long are we. You will soon be complaining about crappy games. My goal is not to be welcome at any casino but at all the best games.
5) My point is this. If you want to play the best games you need to play within the casinos tolerance level. The tolerance levels are designed to either make the easier counts ineffective or not losing to much to any one player. The answer is short sessions with small 4 figure wins (depends on the casino) running the gauntlet of venues in a crowded market. You may walk in and find no playable games and walk out the door. When you find one of those games with great rules and pen don't wear out your welcome. Play and win within casino tolerance. That means length of stay, top bet and spread as well as win size. Some of the best cover I've seen is when one of these buds won to much on a hot shoe and have to lose some back to assure longevity. Sometimes they give up after winning more but all the idiot plays when you want to lose assures longevity even after the win too big.

As to Aslan's original comment I say this. Your variance has primarily to do with your ramped bets. When you get stiff after stiff versus dealer 7 thru A with your larger bets out you are most likely in for a bad bout with variance. You are playing at a table with late surrender so dealer 9, T and A are under damage control but what about dealer 7 or 8. Well if you side count the block of cards 6, 7 and 8 or the block of 7, 8 and 9 you have a safety when they are in abundance. You can safely stand with a 15 or 16 because the dealer is very likely to bust after adding one of these cards to his hand for a total of 13 thru 16 or 14 thru 17, seventeen is the exception. With this knowledge of added strength or weakness to your stiffs you can adjust your bet accordingly. You are now making much more accurate top bets and winning many top bets you would have lost and at higher amounts than you would have bet otherwise. This has a huge impact on your N0 and negative variance. You have a smaller expected win rate perhaps but you will realize that win rate in a much shorter period.

Sorry I didn't connect the dots for everyone but I thought people were following what I was saying.

 

[assume_R]

Agree. Lower spreads are a necessity brought on by house scrutiny; they are not a mathematical blessing in any sense. I have never run a simulation in which lower spreads do not increase N0. A stronger count will not make up for the higher N0 caused by dropping from 12:1 to 8:1.

I don't use a high spread not because of fear of heat, but because while it increases SCORE and lowers N0, it increases my RoR to intolerable levels.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Thanks for all the support guys. I appreciate it.

To LG, while there is truth to what you say the most successful APs I know follow my advice exactly. They use the absolute strongest counts and make huge profits consistently with a small bet spread because they don't need a big spread. Their variance is tiny so a losing week is very very rare due to a teensy NO. They hit stores realizing a hit of a couple thousand is the most they should shoot for since they want to be welcomed back the next day. If they hit the same store more than once in a short period of time for their win limit, they don't go back for a while.

Playing this way has resulted in the lose of no stores for more than 2 decades and wins per year that put them at the top of this sight's earning survey. They have proven that the approach I outlined is the most long term profit maximizing for any bankroll. I play a small spread due to bankroll issues first, I probably would with a much larger bankroll too. A 1 to 10 spread is very lucrative at the best games with a strong system. These APs I am referring to use more like a 1 to 6 or 8 spread because their restriction for betting their largest bets are rarely hit as you need a huge advantage. I think their style of play is the long term winner. I mean you reduce variance with a very profitable small spread that incorporates other AP techniques with the strongest system and your NO becomes so small that those downswings are small and very rare. You made variance your best buddy not your worst nightmare. You have combined the optimal math with an understanding of the real world constraints that will also make your play less optimal.

LG can make lots of money with what he describes but I think he would be surprised how much more efficiently he would make money with an AP grad school approach. Most people or animals for that matter are lazy and follow the path least resistance but putting in the time to be able to play a very profitable small spread at a reasonable max bet that keeps the best games open so they are the only games you play is worth the effort. It is the art of being the most successful AP.

All of what you say is true in some circumstances, but false in most. Yes you can beat most games with a smaller spread but why would you want to? After you make enough money you are going to be banned from any store no matter what your spread is. I'm not going to tell you what kind of spread you can afford, but I can guarantee you my spread will be the biggest one I can both afford and get away with, on any game, any place. If I can't get my spread down the game isn't that good anyway.

What count you use isn't that important. It's more important how you use the counts, and on what games. I happen to like using a multitude of counts, and counts for special purposes, but that is by no means necessary to simply win at blackjack.

As to the idea of the great promos must be killed. I never bought into the idea that wrong behavior is okay because others do it or worse. You not only kill that promo but assure any future promos will be weak. Again very selfish and shortsighted thinking.

There is no evidence that this is true, Promos tend to have a finite, predetermined lifetime and my goal is to hit them as hard as I can and still be allowed to play for the length of the promo. There may be another one, and there may not, so I am going to take advantage of the one I have right now.

A better approach is to organize an enforcer squad that beats these sorts of people to within an inch of their life so they don't kill the existence off the killer promo altogether.

If that's bluster it's moderately satisfying. If you are serious, that's effing stupid. Not that it hasn't been tried, but anyone who thinks they can successfully bully AP's is wrong.

It reminds me of hunters who try to organize other hunters in the area to let the small bucks walk by safely, shooting the does for meat so there will be lots of big trophy bucks to shot. I counter the arguments of the deniers who say if they don't shoot the little buck someone else will by pointing out that may be true most of the time but the one thing you know for sure is if you shoot that young buck it will not walk by you as a trophy. If they ever get to my house they see some of the trophy bucks I have killed (I stopped mounting them many years ago. How many do you need on your wall.) they comment on how they wish they could hunt were I hunt or some other idea they have about why they don't get them. When I tell them I get those bucks off of public hunting land and didn't start getting them until I let the young bucks walk so they have learned it is safe to be in the spots I hunt because they didn't die when they walked by three years prior.

The parallels to the AP's hunt are amazing. Don't hunt in the same spot to much. Rotate dozens of good spots. Don't prematurely kill your trophy, food can be had without doing that. Make your trophy comfortable to be in your presence or your spot. Try to encourage others who frequent your area to follow the same guidelines. If your spot has to many shortsighted hunters you will have no or few trophy bucks and those will be so smart as to be not worth hunting. The buck that survived the gauntlet knows all the hunters tricks and easily avoids all but the most contrarian hunter. He usually falls to a hunter who does things no veteran hunter would do.

LG, I just hope you bet that big spread or max bet for other reasons than you never honed your skills enough to use anything better than a weak counting system. If you bet large max bets with huge variance because you never put in the effort to play the best game you are capable of that just makes me sad. I know many are in it for the thrill and collecting well at stores without large variance may not be what they are looking for.

I tried to be more civil through my pain after realizing that for the last 2 weeks my posts have been an unconscious venting mechanism. Hopefully I was successful.

What, did you have a big loss? Join the club. Money comes and goes, good opportunities come and go.

 

[Tarzan]

It's a great topic!

Some of these posts in the last few weeks pertaining to relationships between longevity, bet spread and bankroll requirements are at the very core of why we are all here, which is sort of like that Army saying "Be all we can be" or some crap like that... be all you can be? Be something or other! To closely examine these things from multiple perspectives and viewpoints is to gain knowledge and achieve a greater understanding beyond our own experiences and practices, all of which make us better players. You can play this game for a very long time and never learn all there is to learn, never know all there is to know.

This is why I like sitting around with Flash flipping cards, bickering back and forth about mathematical probabilities and babbling about fractions of a percentage point... it keeps me sharp and on my toes! If we disagree on something, we remain professional and I don't start whining that "Flash is picking on me" when he disputes an idea or concept is all, along with the reverse being the case. We remain professional to the core and enjoy the objective analysis of one another's input. Why is this? Despite your degree of success and ability level there is always more to evaluate and study. To examine cause and effect beyond the mathematical probabilites and the human factor is to achieve a greater understanding, a higher level of consciousness so to speak.

Also forgot to add... Suck it up and feel better, Tthree... and don't be a pussy!

 

[blackjack avenger]

sorry

I don't use a high spread not because of fear of heat, but because while it increases SCORE and lowers N0, it increases my RoR to intolerable levels.

Your reasoning is off.

 

[blackjack avenger]

i hope we all N0 this

There is an optimal bet ramp for every game whether we:
Wong in any form or play all.
Nothing equals optimal.
The highest SCORE
Lowest NO (long run)
A spread can be to narrow or to wide to be optimal.

One can have an optimized 1 to 6 or 1 to 10 spread, which can be optimal though probably not.

 

[assume_R]

Your reasoning is off.

Can you elaborate?

 

[blackjack avenger]

loss for words

Can you elaborate?

You can have the same ror for different spreads, the bets at each TC change.

 

[Sonny]

I don't use a high spread not because of fear of heat, but because while it increases SCORE and lowers N0, it increases my RoR to intolerable levels.

So, for example, a $25-$300 spread will have a lower RoR than a $10-$300 spread?

-Sonny-

 

[assume_R]

You can have the same ror for different spreads, the bets at each TC change.

So, for example, a $25-$300 spread will have a lower RoR than a $10-$300 spread?

-Sonny-

Hm, well right now I play at $15 tables and at this point in my career my max bet is limited by my bankroll more than anything. So given I hold my min bet constant, my RoR is dependent on my spread. This is only really true for my personal situation because I can't play at lower minimums. But if I were able to, then yes you guys would be correct. Agreed?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Hm, well right now I play at $15 tables and at this point in my career my max bet is limited by my bankroll more than anything. So given I hold my min bet constant, my RoR is dependent on my spread. This is only really true for my personal situation because I can't play at lower minimums. But if I were able to, then yes you guys would be correct. Agreed?

Both RoR and win rate depend heavily on the max bet and somewhat on the min bet. The spread is the ratio of the two and it's kind of an obsolete term for the modern game because most people are playing a minimum bet of zero.

 

[tthree]

Getting the point

Some of these posts in the last few weeks pertaining to relationships between longevity, bet spread and bankroll requirements are at the very core of why we are all here, which is sort of like that Army saying "Be all we can be" or some crap like that... be all you can be? Be something or other! To closely examine these things from multiple perspectives and viewpoints is to gain knowledge and achieve a greater understanding beyond our own experiences and practices, all of which make us better players. You can play this game for a very long time and never learn all there is to learn, never know all there is to know.

This is why I like sitting around with Flash flipping cards, bickering back and forth about mathematical probabilities and babbling about fractions of a percentage point... it keeps me sharp and on my toes! If we disagree on something, we remain professional and I don't start whining that "Flash is picking on me" when he disputes an idea or concept is all, along with the reverse being the case. We remain professional to the core and enjoy the objective analysis of one another's input. Why is this? Despite your degree of success and ability level there is always more to evaluate and study. To examine cause and effect beyond the mathematical probabilites and the human factor is to achieve a greater understanding, a higher level of consciousness so to speak.

Also forgot to add... Suck it up and feel better, Tthree... and don't be a pussy!

Thanks Tarzan. Don't worry no cats allowed in my house. The pain is getting less but function is slow to be restored. I probably don't help it much by trying to be to active. It's more about it being a pain now than pain.

As usual Tarzan makes a bold statement. Be all you can be. That level of what one can be is different for everyone. Don't settle for good enough go for your best. After you have achieved that you want to play only the best games. That is the rest of the big picture if you want to have your best chance at consistently winning you must bring your best and shape it to what is comfortable to the casino(s) that offer the best game(s). That means top bet , spread and win size and win frequency. If your best is good enough the overlap of these sets is very profitable with a small standard deviation. Burning a great game should be an APs biggest sin and a badge of shame. This is the big picture.

All these posts compare things on an equal playing field for variance etc. But if I can play a great game to the exclusion of all others that in itself controls the worst blackjack can through at you. A fair comparison is an artist at not burning great games and the unacceptably aggressive player playing the sh*t games that are harder to burn. That's were you will find each of them after enough time. That is the big picture. You are not robbing the casinos by force but cooperating with their comfort level to win consistently. That is the math of the real world. Just because the math works great on paper or your computer that doesn't mean the factors of the real world should not be a paramount concern to your strategy.

If you examine Why you have those nightmare shoes losing one big bet stiff after another you can often put in extra work that turns many of you big bet losers into winners. This keeps you above your projected EV most of the time. If you could calculate it into your N0 it would greatly reduce your downside. Think outside the conventional box. There are riches found there.

I have a problem when making a point with some people. They get so invested in arguing about things used to illustrate my point that they don't seem to understand what my point was to begin with.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
If you examine Why you have those nightmare shoes losing one big bet stiff after another you can often put in extra work that turns many of you big bet losers into winners. This keeps you above your projected EV most of the time. If you could calculate it into your N0 it would greatly reduce your downside. Think outside the conventional box. There are riches found there...

That's not so. I can write a program to do a full combinatorial analysis of a shoe before every bet and before every play, and it will still have nightmare shoes. Almost as many as you or I do. Sorry to tell you but extra work is usually a waste of time, especially if you expect it to turn bad shoes into good ones. It is a dismal thought but it is also reality.