Long term profit is seeing the big picture

[blackriver]

I don't understand how this can be considered a "really good discussion" that people have "learned a lot from." To summarize we have a guy who has spent 17k hours in casinos, has failed to build a bankroll despite the *significant* time investment, telling everyone that the math 'proves' that using some type of middle card side count will make you a lot of money. We are 130 posts deep now and he has yet to provide any actual math.

Excuse me for trying to inject some reality into the discussion.

I wouldnt say I learned a lot.i would say I have more confidence in an obscure area of my game. If you only learn/accept things at am academic pace you will never be very wrong but you'll miss a lot of opportunities. its very reasonable for a professional gambler to accept new ideas with complete skepticism since most will be wrong and being wrong is so costly.The whole point of making sure your axioms are solid should be so that you can build upon them with less formality. if you look at poker hands discussion they often have no math involved.its not because the math is irrelevant, its just that logic was all that was needed.

The reason I said this was a really good discussion its because I think almost everyone its generally right. I don't think people should give up mental capacity spent on camo, scavenging, scouting nearby tables, watching for mispays,etc. But I think people should learn why seven counting works and casually use that knowledge when its right in front of you. The biggest opportunities to make adjustments based on a seven block count will often be apparent to players making a casual seven block estimate.

I think the academics of this are clear, its really the real world value we are questioning.if everyone still played double deck this topic would be embraced. In the world of shoes, this is probably just for shuffle trackers.

 

[Zerg]

Another angle

I'll chime in and join the "stick with hilo" side of this debate. I believe that in real life only a small fraction of the possible additional edge gained from a higher level count could show up in real play. I believe that greater fatigue and errors probably are associated with higher level counts to a degree that makes it strictly worse for most people.


Thread title: Long term profit is seeing the big picture.


I have a "big picture" idea id like to hear people's thoughts on: If you are building a bankroll strictly counting cards, are you better off putting in time at a casino using hi-lo or spending some time learning a higher level count before you play? If someone wants to put this to the sim test, here is a specific case I propose:

Two players with a $10,000 bankroll are going to try to make as much money as possible playing blackjack. They have access to the same game, 6 deck 75% pen HE .5, game speed 100 hands per hour. Both will be playing a 20-1 spread with bet size based on half kelly. Both players know Hi-Lo. Both players could learn a higher level count perfectly in 20 hours. Assume once they learn it they can play it perfectly for the rest of their life with none of the possible downsides discussed in this thread. They will make no errors, no reduced hours due to mental fatigue, can still be just as aware of everything the hi-lo player is, etc.

If one player chooses to just play hi lo, he basically has a 2000 hand head start over the player who learns a higher level count. Will the other player ever catch up to him? How long will it take?

 

[tthree]

Compring HILO with a 20 hour head start to HIOP II with ace side count

I'll chime in and join the "stick with hilo" side of this debate. I believe that in real life only a small fraction of the possible additional edge gained from a higher level count could show up in real play. I believe that greater fatigue and errors probably are associated with higher level counts to a degree that makes it strictly worse for most people.


Thread title: Long term profit is seeing the big picture.


I have a "big picture" idea id like to hear people's thoughts on: If you are building a bankroll strictly counting cards, are you better off putting in time at a casino using hi-lo or spending some time learning a higher level count before you play? If someone wants to put this to the sim test, here is a specific case I propose:

Two players with a $10,000 bankroll are going to try to make as much money as possible playing blackjack. They have access to the same game, 6 deck 75% pen HE .5, game speed 100 hands per hour. Both will be playing a 20-1 spread with bet size based on half kelly. Both players know Hi-Lo. Both players could learn a higher level count perfectly in 20 hours. Assume once they learn it they can play it perfectly for the rest of their life with none of the possible downsides discussed in this thread. They will make no errors, no reduced hours due to mental fatigue, can still be just as aware of everything the hi-lo player is, etc.

If one player chooses to just play hi lo, he basically has a 2000 hand head start over the player who learns a higher level count. Will the other player ever catch up to him? How long will it take?

Forgive me but the easily accessible sim generated data I have for comparison is S17, DOA, DAS so the house edge is .44% and a spread for the sim of 1 to 16 play all. Hilo after 2000 hands (20 hours) has an EV of $499.80 ($24.94/hr, 100 hands/hr with a N0 of 40095 hands). That is the head start, $499.80.

A player using HIOPT II with ace side count makes $30.52/hr with a N0 of 32762. In the next 2000 hands (20 hours) Hiopt II has an EV of $610.40 while the would continue to have an EV of $499.80. So every 20 hours the HIOP II would make up $110.60 in EV. After playing 4.52 20 hour intervals (90.38 hours or 9038 hands) the HIOPT II player would be ahead.

When the HIOPT II player hits his N0 at 32762 hands his EV is $9998.96. The hilo player with a 2000 hand head start has played 34762 hands for an EV of $8669.64 and is only 86.7% of the way to his N0 of 40095 hands while being behind the EV of the HIOPT II player by $1329.32 with the HIOPT II player already reaching his N0 despite the head start for the HILO player.

THE SHORT ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION SLIGHTLY MODIFIED TO FIT THE SIM RESULTS IS 90.38 HOURS. I would think a sim with a slightly larger spread (1 to 20 rather than 1 to 16) and worse rules (house edge .5% rather than .44%) would make the gap be closed faster for each of the 2 factors. The gap closes even faster for wonging.

 

[Zerg]

Did this take into account bet resizing?

That sim works for me.

My thoughts that the HILo player would be ahead was based on the idea that he would be betting more since his bankroll would have grown in the 20 hours. So if the HILO player makes about $500 in 20 hours, then He has a 10500 bankroll to the HiOpt2 player's 10000 bankroll in my suggested problem. The Hi-lo player playing a 5% higher bankroll betting half kelly would bet 2.5% more than the hi opt 2 player. Is that not enough extra to make him come out ahead? At what point does a higher bankroll (from extra play in my example) make up for the theoretical edge?

 

[tthree]

No resizing. I agree this head start is not enough for resizing to be a factor. At what point would one resize? This is an area of ignorance for me. Anyone with experience want to answer?

 

[zengrifter]

I just figure without much effort it seemed so easy to win money that as employment prospects look more questionable I would make a more serious effort and maybe find a new career.

"Its the idea, the dream that counts!" --Preston Tucker

 

[zengrifter]

I often played with professionals with big bankrolls. They often commented how my comparatively small wins were much more impressive than their much bigger wins. Until the people hear who have tried to help me made me understand about RoR as well as many other important aspects beyond the play at the table I didn't really understand what they meant. I would run 200 into 1000 but they would run 5000 into 15000. I thought they were simply talking percentages. Now I understand what they really meant.

You weren't over-betting, necessarily, because you possessed an undefined virtual replenish-able BR. zg

 

[psyduck]

tthree

I PM-ed you some sim results regarding sidecount.

 

[tthree]

I PM-ed you some sim results regarding sidecount.

Thanks for the info. It was very interesting.

 

[Tarzan]

After carefully reviewing 15 pages or so

Hi-Lo sucks, Tarzan count rules.

 

[kewljason]

Hi-Lo sucks, Tarzan count rules.

See now, my take is a little different. :laugh: After not-so-carefully reading 16 pages, I conclude, as several players that play seriously and full-time do, that Hi-lo is more than adequate for the needs of the vast majority of players, even profesional full-time players and that most players playing higher levels and/or side counts just aren't realizing much additional benefit by such.

You, Mr Tarzan, are one of a very small handful of players that are not included in this "vast majority or most" catagory and have such high abilities and experience, that you can benefit from advanced levels. An abnormally, if you will. :laugh: That being said, I think you have an obligation to consider this when dispensing advise.

 

[Tarzan]

Demented humor

I tossed that out there to appeal to my demented sense of humor, Jason. People can do what they want to do and I hope all works out for them. I have "realized" and seen the "long haul" but can't and will not expect others to go to the same elaborate paths I have taken... who knows, maybe a technically advanced count had nothing to do with it and I was just lucky. What if the true secret to my overall success can be attributed to nothing more than a high fiber diet? What if it had nothing to do with any specific count and had more to do with being in good spirits and finding myself strangely sexually aroused from watching Rachel Maddow on MSNBC?

 

[blackjack avenger]

unnecessary comments

:laugh:

RA CD ins.
Raise hi Lo indice 1 for
10, 10 & stiffs.
The RA means u are less likely to ins.

Higher level count gives 10% while counting same cards.
Side count gives 10% while keeping 2 COUNTS.

With resizing bank:
Resign bank down on losses preserves it. Resizing on wins grows it. The problem is the up to 9 fold increase to long run. The issue seems to be if u resize more then when.

 

[tthree]

:laugh:

RA CD ins.
Raise hi Lo indice 1 for
10, 10 & stiffs.
The RA means u are less likely to ins.

Higher level count gives 10% while counting same cards.
Side count gives 10% while keeping 2 COUNTS.

With resizing bank:
Resign bank down on losses preserves it. Resizing on wins grows it. The problem is the up to 9 fold increase to long run. The issue seems to be if u resize more then when.

Avenger I bet your brevity has me not following what you are saying. I am sure you understand the issues you are commenting on. Elaborate a little on "raise HILO indices 1 for 10, 10 and stiffs". The stiffs are obviously right. But a hand of 10 or TT the ace is counted correctly as a high card in HILO so your index should be a strong indicator of your situation. Is this all one statement of TT v stiffs. I could see were you would end up playing weakly indicated match ups after splitting TT but with the upcard and count for splitting you are going to stand if you are not side counting if you draw a stiff. Perhaps simply want a high enough percentage on your play to merit splitting TT. That makes total sense. I guess it is just the ambiguity of the quoted part that has me wondering. You are another of the people who seem to understand higher concepts. You don't need to understand them to win consistently but to talk intelligently about topics it is a big help.

The Sim results for HIOPT II and ace side count and HILO I have are for 6 deck, 75% pen, 1 to 16 spread, S17, DOA, DAS, no surrender and no RSA. It
is a 22.37% increase over HILO in player PROFIT. Using your additional side count being additional 10% increase (this figure may not be player profit) you get a 34.61% increase in total player PROFIT which comes with a reduction of your N0 and increase in SCORE. If your figures are right about the change in house edge AND a 10% increase in player advantage results in 22.37% increase in PROFIT, then the second 10% increase in edge would compound the PROFIT increase to be 49.75% in total. I know people keep arguing this is not worth it. You have control over whether or not you enjoy this increase. Some of the same people complain about rule changes that move the edge this much and will refuse to play them.

 

[blackjack avenger]

composition dependent risk averse insurance

10,10 & any 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
Vs dealers A
Raise the indice by 1 for hi Lo for insurance

I don't understand me!

 

[aslan]

I agree. I welcome some concrete results using simulations of several hundred million rounds, and no more arguments like "on a couple of shoes I played in my den, I noticed that the extra sidecount saved me on max-bet hands, turning the shoes around," or "this stronger system can make bad games playable."



Then, for the present, he should stop advising every poster here, both new and experienced, to switch to these counts.

Fair enough.

 

[tthree]

10,10 & any 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
Vs dealers A
Raise the indice by 1 for hi Lo for insurance

I don't understand me!

Sorry, I thought you were making multiple points. If i would have realized it was all one concept I would have understood . I already do that.

 

[aslan]

See now, my take is a little different. :laugh: After not-so-carefully reading 16 pages, I conclude, as several players that play seriously and full-time do, that Hi-lo is more than adequate for the needs of the vast majority of players, even profesional full-time players and that most players playing higher levels and/or side counts just aren't realizing much additional benefit by such.

You, Mr Tarzan, are one of a very small handful of players that are not included in this "vast majority or most" catagory and have such high abilities and experience, that you can benefit from advanced levels. An abnormally, if you will. :laugh: That being said, I think you have an obligation to consider this when dispensing advise.

The vast majority can still study these more complex counts and concepts in their spare time, while in practice they continue using hi-lo or whatever their preference may be. Tarzan's count, for instance, has caught my attention. He claims to be able to spot certain situations where the shoe from hell is looming, while at the same time high and low cards are evenly distributed. Without warning the house can win hand after hand and their is no mechanism in most counting systems that can alert us. Wow! If true, this is quite a feat. Now I know that Tarzan's system is not for the average counter, but that is not to say we cannot learn something from it, or maybe even come up with some in between measure that can improve our present counting system.

Anyway, what Zerg was suggesting is interesting, but it's not a question of which to start off using, but really it's just a matter of learning (or learning about) one system while using another, as I'm sure many APs are currently already doing. I am using KO but at the same time I am learning hilo and ace side-counts. I may or may not use this knowledge, but knowledge is free, and there is an old saying that "knowledge is power."

 

[tthree]

The vast majority can still study these more complex counts and concepts in their spare time, while in practice they continue using hi-lo or whatever their preference may be. Tarzan's count, for instance, has caught my attention. He claims to be able to spot certain situations where the shoe from hell is looming, while at the same time high and low cards are evenly distributed. Without warning the house can win hand after hand and their is no mechanism in most counting systems that can alert us. Wow! If true, this is quite a feat. Now I know that Tarzan's system is not for the average counter, but that is not to say we cannot learn something from it, or maybe even come up with some in between measure that can improve our present counting system.

Anyway, what Zerg was suggesting is interesting, but it's not a question of which to start off using, but really it's just a matter of learning (or learning about) one system while using another, as I'm sure many APs are currently already doing. I am using KO but at the same time I am learning hilo and ace side-counts. I may or may not use this knowledge, but knowledge is free, and there is an old saying that "knowledge is power."

My discussions with Tarzan and understanding why his observations occur inspired the block side count. I tried to figure what would help my game the most while helping to flag the nightmare shoes. I mentioned being trained to spot strong and horrible conditions other counts miss. Tarzan's discussions and PMs answering my questions about how he went about capitalizing on the wealth of information he gathered has helped to understand where to find the useful information and how to use it. I doubt the others that have used a count like Tarzan's used the information as well as he does. I would have done a similar line of development but he uses a normalization technique that makes using the information to full advantage much less complicated than where I would have started. It is beautiful the way it helps maximize the ease of use of the information. Pure genius.

 

[ycming]

Could someone share some insight into Tarzan's count?