Long Term
- Thread starter Mladonna
- Start date
20000 hands at 50 hands per hour is 400 hours! That's over 13 hours a day just playing at the tables. Even at 200 hands per hour heads up, that's 100 hours a month.
You can certainly hit the long run (N0) in 20000 hands. But you most likely won't turn a profit since you aren't going to be playing your A game because you'll be tired. You'll have to live at the casino you're playing at, so that your travel time is just the trip down the elevator to the casino floor.
When I'm in Vegas for a week, I try to get 70 hours of blackjack and poker playing time in. By the end, I'm exhausted since I'd only get a few hours of sleep every day. Traveling eats up a lot of time, whether across town or just to the casino next door. We need to travel frequently for longevity.
You can certainly hit the long run (N0) in 20000 hands. But you most likely won't turn a profit since you aren't going to be playing your A game because you'll be tired. You'll have to live at the casino you're playing at, so that your travel time is just the trip down the elevator to the casino floor.
When I'm in Vegas for a week, I try to get 70 hours of blackjack and poker playing time in. By the end, I'm exhausted since I'd only get a few hours of sleep every day. Traveling eats up a lot of time, whether across town or just to the casino next door. We need to travel frequently for longevity.
is for home practice i just wanna know . and if i do 8 hours a day with around 100 hands / h , in 1 month il have 20.000 hands played . just was curious if il feel that 1% after 20.000 or if standard deviation will still be over my initial bankroll + expectation. And considering the fact that if the TC goes -1 i reshuffle as il be backcounting .
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sagefr0g said:
"20,000 hands is probably short of what is often considered long run, 3 SD. ".... that's a new one on me, errhhh comparing or relating three standard deviations to the long run?
:whip:
can you elucidate a bit more on the logic?
does it have something to do with the concept of N0?
:whip:can you elucidate a bit more on the logic?
does it have something to do with the concept of N0?
nope.
You need to calculate as following:
N=N0 is the number of hands N, for which EV(N) = SD(N) after those N hands.
Since EV(N) is proportional to N, and SD(N) is proportional to sqrt(N),
if you ask for the number of hands (lets call it N2) where you are ahead at least by 2*SD, one will immediatly find:
EV(N2) = 2*SD(N2)
N2/N0 EV(N0) = 2* sqrt(N2/N0) SD(N0)
and hence
N2 = 4 * N0.
The interpretation of N0 is rather simple: it is the "scale" at which your winnings should show up.
After 1*N0 hands you are down with probability of 15.8%.
After 4*N0 hands you are down with probability of 2.2%.
After 9*N0 hands you are down with probability of 0.1%.
Depending on the level of certainty, if you want to be 99.9% sure that you are playing a winning game, you should play at least 10*N0 hands before evaluating your results.
You need to calculate as following:
N=N0 is the number of hands N, for which EV(N) = SD(N) after those N hands.
Since EV(N) is proportional to N, and SD(N) is proportional to sqrt(N),
if you ask for the number of hands (lets call it N2) where you are ahead at least by 2*SD, one will immediatly find:
EV(N2) = 2*SD(N2)
N2/N0 EV(N0) = 2* sqrt(N2/N0) SD(N0)
and hence
N2 = 4 * N0.
The interpretation of N0 is rather simple: it is the "scale" at which your winnings should show up.
After 1*N0 hands you are down with probability of 15.8%.
After 4*N0 hands you are down with probability of 2.2%.
After 9*N0 hands you are down with probability of 0.1%.
Depending on the level of certainty, if you want to be 99.9% sure that you are playing a winning game, you should play at least 10*N0 hands before evaluating your results.
Maybe it is just your lack of English fluidity but you speak (AS IF)
you are somehow guaranteed to win at or above your expectation
if you play a particular (relatively) "large" number of hands ("NO")
That is FALSE. You will be within 1 standard deviation of seeing
that occur - presuming perfect play, not being cheated, etc. etc.
Even at that juncture, there is a substantial chance for your count
to underperform, or even lose money. "There is no free lunch" as we say.
How many hands per day/month/etc. you will actually play can
be hard to say as the variable will vary may be considerably
longer than you are estimating.
From the Frequently Asked Question thread:
Q: What is the “long run” that I keep hearing people talk about?
A: The long run is the point where you overcome the variance (luck) of the game and can be assured of reaching your EV. It is the point where your results are no longer affected by luck and only your skill remains. Here are some threads about the long run:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5913
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891
-Sonny-
Q: What is the “long run” that I keep hearing people talk about?
A: The long run is the point where you overcome the variance (luck) of the game and can be assured of reaching your EV. It is the point where your results are no longer affected by luck and only your skill remains. Here are some threads about the long run:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=5913
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891
-Sonny-