Looking for back counting spreads for 2 games

[pooptarts92]

Hey all, I am in need of a couple bet spreads for back counting these 2 games. BTW they are both very similar, one has no hole card and one does. I have a 5k bankroll using Wong Halves.

Game 1:

6 decks
Late Surrender
H17
Blackjack 3:2
Insurance 2 to 1
DAS
DA2
No resplit of aces, aces get 1 card each
Split 4 ways
Dealer cuts off 1 deck for the most part

Game 2:

6 decks
No holecard, only lose original bet to dealer Natural
ES vs 10, NO SURRENDER VS ACE
H17
Blackjack 3:2
Insurance 2 to 1
DAS
DA2
No resplit aces, 1 card each
Split 4 ways
Same pen, 1 deck is cutoff most of the time.

Hopefully I listed everything, thanks in advance to anybody who can run these games for me.

 

[Southpaw]

Hey all, I am in need of a couple bet spreads for back counting these 2 games. BTW they are both very similar, one has no hole card and one does. I have a 5k bankroll using Wong Halves.

Game 1:

6 decks
Late Surrender
H17
Blackjack 3:2
Insurance 2 to 1
DAS
DA2
No resplit of aces, aces get 1 card each
Split 4 ways
Dealer cuts off 1 deck for the most part

Game 2:

6 decks
No holecard, only lose original bet to dealer Natural
ES vs 10, NO SURRENDER VS ACE
H17
Blackjack 3:2
Insurance 2 to 1
DAS
DA2
No resplit aces, 1 card each
Split 4 ways
Same pen, 1 deck is cutoff most of the time.

Hopefully I listed everything, thanks in advance to anybody who can run these games for me.

How large of a spread do you want to use? 1-4? 1-6? 1-20?

What are your parameters for wonging out? At TC =-2 at -3 or maybe -4 or -5?

What Kelly fraction are you desiring 1.0, half, quarter? If you say 2.0, you can forget about having me run these :joker:

Edit: What are your parameters for entering the game? At TC= +1, +2 and etc. Lastly, what indices do you use?

SP

 

[pooptarts92]

Sorry man it's been a while I forgot things haha. My base unit is $5, I'll be jumping in at true 2 and up, wonging out at anything below true 1. I'm not sure about how large my spread would be, I was hoping the sims would tell us. Maybe 1-10 or 1-12? Hope this helps. Oh and I'm not sure what you mean by Kelly fraction...:cry: As for indices probably -1 to +8.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Sorry man it's been a while I forgot things haha. My base unit is $5, I'll be jumping in at true 2 and up, wonging out at anything below true 1. I'm not sure about how large my spread would be, I was hoping the sims would tell us. Maybe 1-10 or 1-12? Hope this helps. Oh and I'm not sure what you mean by Kelly fraction...:cry: As for indices probably -1 to +8.

If you're not playing a single hand where the house has an advantage, I reckon you wouldn't need a very big spread at all on a 6 decker with good penetration and surrender. The single determining factor would be where you want to set your target as far as winnings go.

 

[zengrifter]

Sorry man it's been a while I forgot things haha. My base unit is $5, I'll be jumping in at true 2 and up, wonging out at anything below true 1. I'm not sure about how large my spread would be, I was hoping the sims would tell us. Maybe 1-10 or 1-12? Hope this helps. Oh and I'm not sure what you mean by Kelly fraction...:cry: As for indices probably -1 to +8.

What RoR do you want? 2%? 35%? What? That's what detirmines your bet sizing.
Oh wait< I couldn't find your BR amount? zg

 

[pooptarts92]

What RoR do you want? 2%? 35%? What? That's what detirmines your bet sizing.
Oh wait< I couldn't find your BR amount? zg

My BR is 5k, and 2% or lower is good.

 

[caramel6]

If you're not playing a single hand where the house has an advantage, I reckon you wouldn't need a very big spread at all on a 6 decker with good penetration and surrender. The single determining factor would be where you want to set your target as far as winnings go.

what if 4 decks, pen 65, no surrender, rsp;it aces, doublings any 2 cards, stay soft 17, no insurance, use HI - LOW, want to wong in TC 2 , what is my chance of success and ROR? Bankroll 3000-5000.

Does it maytter how many boxes taken Could be up to 7 players on a table

 

[Southpaw]

My BR is 5k, and 2% or lower is good.

If I get the time to do this, it will be later tonight or possibly tomorrow, as my simulator is quite preoccupied with doing charity work for others at the moment.

SP

 

[pooptarts92]

If I get the time to do this, it will be later tonight or possibly tomorrow, as my simulator is quite preoccupied with doing charity work for others at the moment.

SP

That would be greatly appreciated man. Thanks.:grin:

 

[Southpaw]

That would be greatly appreciated man. Thanks.:grin:

All right, my friend. So, I have run the sims on your games. Since you haven't defined what spread you are going to use, I am just going to give you all of the information that you'd need to calculate your bets and then you can determine a spread from that. I'll provide instructions along the way.

Here is a spreadsheet that defines your IBA and Variance for TC's 1-10 in each of your two games:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkcCldUn36hMdE8tbEpiRHRyVmhyaWhnV1JOaElxekE&hl=fr#gid=0

I used Halves and indices -1 to 8 as you specified. I assumed that you truncated your TC and that you use full-deck resolution.

So, you said that you want your RoR to be below 2%. Well, if you bet 1/2 Kelly, then you'll have an RoR of 1.83%. However, betting a perfect 1/2 Kelly would have you betting strange amounts such as $26.11. After rounding figures like these appropriately (this would could go to $25), your RoR will probably be just above 2%. But then again, we know that we will be cutting our bets off at a particular maximum, which will again lower it.

O.K., so when you bet half Kelly, you are only going to be betting optimally against half your BR, which in your case is $2,500. So, to find the optimal half Kelly wager at any TC, you need to multiply $2,500 by the IBA of that TC and then divide by the variance associated with that TC.

Here is an example:

I want to find my bet at TC = 5 in game 2. The spreadsheet indicates that at TC = 5, IBA = 2.76% and the variance = 1.539.

My bet would be ($2,500 x .0276) / 1.539 = $44.83

We would appropriately round this to either $40, $45 or $50.

Let us consider $40 to be our max-bet for this game. NOTE THAT OUR MAX BET WILL NOT CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE SPREAD! If our spread was to be 1-8, then our minimum bet would be $5. If our spread was 1-4, then our minimum bet would be $10. If our spread was 1-2, then our minimum would be $20. Once again, our top bet will not change.

So here is what you need to do:

1. Calculate the optimal bet for each TC, as demonstrated.
2. Decide where you'll place your max-bet.
3. Decide what your spread will be.
4. Determine what your minimum bet must be to accommodate the spread, WITHOUT CHANGING YOUR MAX BET!

One last thing. Say you want to use a spread of 1-20 and your top bet is $40. That means your minimum will be $20. This $20 will be higher than the optimal bet for some TC's, but you will place it anyways. Your bets will only range between $20-40.

Let me know if you have any questions,

SP

 

[zengrifter]

Poop will need play to a much higher RoR. zg

 

[Southpaw]

Poop will need play to a much higher RoR. zg

Yeah, well here's the deal. I forgot that he is backcounting. Using a $40 max-bet, but avoiding all situations where the house has the advantage, I believe his RoR is going to be a bit lower than half-Kelly. Therefore, I think he should use the information I gave him to develop a spread and then let me test the spread and tell him his SCORE and RoR.

SP

 

[pooptarts92]

All right, my friend. So, I have run the sims on your games. Since you haven't defined what spread you are going to use, I am just going to give you all of the information that you'd need to calculate your bets and then you can determine a spread from that. I'll provide instructions along the way.

Here is a spreadsheet that defines your IBA and Variance for TC's 1-10 in each of your two games:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AkcCldUn36hMdE8tbEpiRHRyVmhyaWhnV1JOaElxekE&hl=fr#gid=0

I used Halves and indices -1 to 8 as you specified. I assumed that you truncated your TC and that you use full-deck resolution.

So, you said that you want your RoR to be below 2%. Well, if you bet 1/2 Kelly, then you'll have an RoR of 1.83%. However, betting a perfect 1/2 Kelly would have you betting strange amounts such as $26.11. After rounding figures like these appropriately (this would could go to $25), your RoR will probably be just above 2%. But then again, we know that we will be cutting our bets off at a particular maximum, which will again lower it.

O.K., so when you bet half Kelly, you are only going to be betting optimally against half your BR, which in your case is $2,500. So, to find the optimal half Kelly wager at any TC, you need to multiply $2,500 by the IBA of that TC and then divide by the variance associated with that TC.

Here is an example:

I want to find my bet at TC = 5 in game 2. The spreadsheet indicates that at TC = 5, IBA = 2.76% and the variance = 1.539.

My bet would be ($2,500 x .0276) / 1.539 = $44.83

We would appropriately round this to either $40, $45 or $50.

Let us consider $40 to be our max-bet for this game. NOTE THAT OUR MAX BET WILL NOT CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE SPREAD! If our spread was to be 1-8, then our minimum bet would be $5. If our spread was 1-4, then our minimum bet would be $10. If our spread was 1-2, then our minimum would be $20. Once again, our top bet will not change.

So here is what you need to do:

1. Calculate the optimal bet for each TC, as demonstrated.
2. Decide where you'll place your max-bet.
3. Decide what your spread will be.
4. Determine what your minimum bet must be to accommodate the spread, WITHOUT CHANGING YOUR MAX BET!

One last thing. Say you want to use a spread of 1-20 and your top bet is $40. That means your minimum will be $20. This $20 will be higher than the optimal bet for some TC's, but you will place it anyways. Your bets will only range between $20-40.

Let me know if you have any questions,

SP

Just a question, at which TC should I have my max bet out? 5 or 6? This will help me do the necessary calculations and show them to you.

 

[Southpaw]

Just a question, at which TC should I have my max bet out? 5 or 6? This will help me do the necessary calculations and show them to you.

It doesn't really matter all that much. Most people put out max-bet when they see an advantage between 2%-2.5%. You are playing a very strong system in a good game, so you'll see that advantage early, but since you are only planning to play against half your roll, you could could probably afford to still be ramping at TCs as high as 6-7.

SP

 

[pooptarts92]

It doesn't really matter all that much. Most people put out max-bet when they see an advantage between 2%-2.5%. You are playing a very strong system in a good game, so you'll see that advantage early, but since you are only planning to play against half your roll, you could could probably afford to still be ramping at TCs as high as 6-7.

SP

Ok if I was to say I would be ok with a 1-10 or even 1-12 spread and a bit higher risk (3% or so) could you get a bet spread out of that? Because I don't think I can grind on low max bets of $40, I was doing that with my tiny BR before and it was a hell of a grind lol. But my max was only about $30.

 

[Southpaw]

Ok if I was to say I would be ok with a 1-10 or even 1-12 spread and a bit higher risk (3% or so) could you get a bet spread out of that? Because I don't think I can grind on low max bets of $40, I was doing that with my tiny BR before and it was a hell of a grind lol. But my max was only about $30.

Working with the CVCX app of CVData, it seems that if you follow your backcounting plan you can put out $75 at a TC of +7 and have an RoR of about 3%. In programming your backcounting plan, I actually had you not wonging until the RC was below 0, just so that we were not being too liberal in our calculations. You can make your minimum bet as small as you'd like, if you want to increase your spread, but you really should not be betting any less than $20 according to CVCX, for you will always will be playing with the advantage. You could continue your ramp up to $120 at a TC of +12, but no one really likes to take their spread up to these TC's because they are rare. But, you still should not be putting out more than $75 in the 5-7 area, unless you want to totally throw away the notion of 3% RoR.

SP

 

[pooptarts92]

Working with the CVCX app of CVData, it seems that if you follow your backcounting plan you can put out $75 at a TC of +7 and have an RoR of about 3%. In programming your backcounting plan, I actually had you not wonging until the RC was below 0, just so that we were not being too liberal in our calculations. You can make your minimum bet as small as you'd like, if you want to increase your spread, but you really should not be betting any less than $20 according to CVCX, for you will always will be playing with the advantage. You could continue your ramp up to $120 at a TC of +12, but no one really likes to take their spread up to these TC's because they are rare. But, you still should not be putting out more than $75 in the 5-7 area, unless you want to totally throw away the notion of 3% RoR.

SP

Very nice thanks a lot man, I know that us counters are supposed to separate emotion from the game but I can't help but feel excited/nervous when I have what I consider big money out there. I do not get all mad/sad when I lose these either just to be clear, but I enjoy the excitement that comes from pushing out those big bets. Thanks a lot man, looking forward to the spread.:grin: