Luck vs. probability theory
- Thread starter greyghost
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The hunch player is making his decision either randomly or based on something. If the basis is not mathematically shown to have any advantage how can he possilbly be playing with better than a counters expectation? He can't. If he isn't just making random decissions but a decession of 'guessing' a high card is next since the last 3 were low etc. all of this can be simulated. If you reduce his decision making to random crap of course this can also be simulated.
I agree. The problem here is what we call a correlation coefficient. Does the hunch player only get “good feelings” when he has an advantage and “bad feelings” when he is at a disadvantage? Does the size of his “good” or “bad” feeling indicate the magnitude of his advantage or disadvantage? Does his apprehension and confidence correspond to the next card in the shoe being harmful or helpful? The problem is that the hunch player’s emotions probably do not correlate to the real world results at all. They may occasionally, and his selective memory may skew his confidence in his ability, but there is no indication that hunches correlate to actual advantage.
Let the poker players rely on intuition and “gut feelings.” In blackjack we have the luxury of mathematical certainty.
-Sonny-
Let the poker players rely on intuition and “gut feelings.” In blackjack we have the luxury of mathematical certainty.
-Sonny-
feeling it
Played beside a guy who 'had a feeling' the other night, bets table max($300)
gets a snapper. I know whats coming. He has approx $800 in chips. Has a feeling as he stays on a s14 v dealers 5. Dealers hole card is a 10, then draws a 5...hmmmm. Just before he looses everything(in 5 min)my wife says, 'you should do that'. After the guy leaves, PB strolls up beside me and says, 'I have a feeling he'll be back'. Yup, just keep on feelin it.
Played beside a guy who 'had a feeling' the other night, bets table max($300)
gets a snapper. I know whats coming. He has approx $800 in chips. Has a feeling as he stays on a s14 v dealers 5. Dealers hole card is a 10, then draws a 5...hmmmm. Just before he looses everything(in 5 min)my wife says, 'you should do that'. After the guy leaves, PB strolls up beside me and says, 'I have a feeling he'll be back'. Yup, just keep on feelin it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dacium View Post
The hunch player is making his decision either randomly or based on something. If the basis is not mathematically shown to have any advantage how can he possilbly be playing with better than a counters expectation? He can't.
i think there is something to hunchs. i don't use them when playing blackjack except sometimes for marginal plays or if i lose the count when the true count is high.
apparently a computer has the capability of 'perfect' play in that it can remmember every card that has been played, know what cards are left in the pack and know the best playing strategy and bet size for each hand. with the counting systems that exist and limits of skill unfortunately we can't match the computers capabilities. there is a count system called the Thorpe Ultimate that if a humane could use it would probably yield the greatest advantage. i don't know what the Thorpe Ultimate is but it's supposed to be virtually impossibe for a humane to use in a casino.
one question that comes to mind is just how good are the systems that do exist and could they be better? we know as far as card counting goes that if we obtain a fleeting two percent advantage that we are doing good. as far as i know the advantage obtained from card counting is based on qualitative grounds the circumstances of which are that the players have an advantage when the cards remaining in the pack to be dealt are richer in aces and faces than they are in small cards (ie. 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's & 6's). just how certain is the advantage? as far as i know the level of certainty can only be expressed by degrees of confidence levels. that is it's a statistical edge and by no means guaranteed. Orestes with his post http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=22117&postcount=1
i believe shows how 'shakey' EOR can be with respect to betting correlation and playing strategy correlation. i think it's not so much that all this stuff isn't good, infact i think it is great but the point is that such ponderance leads one to believe there is more to know and understand. the hope being more advantage to be obtained with the unpercieved knowledge and understanding. this uncharted territory would be where hunch play could yield an advantage. the problem would be as Sonny points out "The problem is that the hunch player’s emotions probably do not correlate to the real world results at all." so even if we could identify the uncharted waters that hold no known advantage the hunch player still appears to be on shakey ground. it's interesting to imagine two players one a computer that only plays according to randomly selected play decisions and betting. one time the computer may bet up or down, hit, double, split, stand, surrender, sit out, ect but it makes these actions with no ryhme or reason and the other player well let him make plays and bets with no knowledge of basic strategy, card counting or bet sizing but let it be that he has played blackjack for years. the question being who would win? i'd put my money on the intuitive experienced blackjack player over the computer in this case. one senses that play experience and the use of mind is better than no experience and no thought. if that is true then there is some small edge to hunch play.
back in the day when i sat through my first elementary school class that had math class instruction i can remmember occasions when the teacher would pose math problems for us. it would often be the case that i'd just sit there, think about it and come up with an answer. the teacher would then come around to each of our seats and examine our papers. in my case the paper was blank except for the answer. the teacher would lean over me and say "well your answer is correct but your not doing it right. i want to see how you got the answer." well i couldn't explain how i got the answer but what ever it was that i was doing back then was lost when the teacher forced us all to follow the method and record how we got our results on paper. i'm not saying anything is wrong with following methods in math it's just that i've always felt that something wonderful was lost for me as a part of that process. so here comes the aspect of savants with regard to hunch play. savants can do some truly incredible things as a perusal of some links will show:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autistic_savant
i don't think savant abilities are well understood. it is just interesting that savant's have such remarkable capabilities to the point where it would seem possible for the right savant to make a true life Rainman story.
so well anyway it's for reasons such as these that i'm not ready to totally write off hunch play.
there is one other aspect with regards to hunch's that i do sometimes take action on. when i get a 'rotten sinking feeling in my gut that makes me sense that nothing is going to go right" i'll suspend play until that feeling goes away.
but no i won't suspend play if the count is positive
one last thought on all this. just that it would seem an experienced advantage player should when making hunch plays be better at it than a hunch player who has no advantage play experience.
Originally Posted by dacium View Post
The hunch player is making his decision either randomly or based on something. If the basis is not mathematically shown to have any advantage how can he possilbly be playing with better than a counters expectation? He can't.
i think there is something to hunchs. i don't use them when playing blackjack except sometimes for marginal plays or if i lose the count when the true count is high.
apparently a computer has the capability of 'perfect' play in that it can remmember every card that has been played, know what cards are left in the pack and know the best playing strategy and bet size for each hand. with the counting systems that exist and limits of skill unfortunately we can't match the computers capabilities. there is a count system called the Thorpe Ultimate that if a humane could use it would probably yield the greatest advantage. i don't know what the Thorpe Ultimate is but it's supposed to be virtually impossibe for a humane to use in a casino.
one question that comes to mind is just how good are the systems that do exist and could they be better? we know as far as card counting goes that if we obtain a fleeting two percent advantage that we are doing good. as far as i know the advantage obtained from card counting is based on qualitative grounds the circumstances of which are that the players have an advantage when the cards remaining in the pack to be dealt are richer in aces and faces than they are in small cards (ie. 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's & 6's). just how certain is the advantage? as far as i know the level of certainty can only be expressed by degrees of confidence levels. that is it's a statistical edge and by no means guaranteed. Orestes with his post http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=22117&postcount=1
i believe shows how 'shakey' EOR can be with respect to betting correlation and playing strategy correlation. i think it's not so much that all this stuff isn't good, infact i think it is great but the point is that such ponderance leads one to believe there is more to know and understand. the hope being more advantage to be obtained with the unpercieved knowledge and understanding. this uncharted territory would be where hunch play could yield an advantage. the problem would be as Sonny points out "The problem is that the hunch player’s emotions probably do not correlate to the real world results at all." so even if we could identify the uncharted waters that hold no known advantage the hunch player still appears to be on shakey ground. it's interesting to imagine two players one a computer that only plays according to randomly selected play decisions and betting. one time the computer may bet up or down, hit, double, split, stand, surrender, sit out, ect but it makes these actions with no ryhme or reason and the other player well let him make plays and bets with no knowledge of basic strategy, card counting or bet sizing but let it be that he has played blackjack for years. the question being who would win? i'd put my money on the intuitive experienced blackjack player over the computer in this case. one senses that play experience and the use of mind is better than no experience and no thought. if that is true then there is some small edge to hunch play.
back in the day when i sat through my first elementary school class that had math class instruction i can remmember occasions when the teacher would pose math problems for us. it would often be the case that i'd just sit there, think about it and come up with an answer. the teacher would then come around to each of our seats and examine our papers. in my case the paper was blank except for the answer. the teacher would lean over me and say "well your answer is correct but your not doing it right. i want to see how you got the answer." well i couldn't explain how i got the answer but what ever it was that i was doing back then was lost when the teacher forced us all to follow the method and record how we got our results on paper. i'm not saying anything is wrong with following methods in math it's just that i've always felt that something wonderful was lost for me as a part of that process. so here comes the aspect of savants with regard to hunch play. savants can do some truly incredible things as a perusal of some links will show:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autistic_savant
i don't think savant abilities are well understood. it is just interesting that savant's have such remarkable capabilities to the point where it would seem possible for the right savant to make a true life Rainman story.
so well anyway it's for reasons such as these that i'm not ready to totally write off hunch play.
there is one other aspect with regards to hunch's that i do sometimes take action on. when i get a 'rotten sinking feeling in my gut that makes me sense that nothing is going to go right" i'll suspend play until that feeling goes away.
but no i won't suspend play if the count is positive
one last thought on all this. just that it would seem an experienced advantage player should when making hunch plays be better at it than a hunch player who has no advantage play experience.