Lucky Lucky

Z

zachs

Active Member
#1
#1
Does anyone take this optional side bet? Is it any good? The rules are below

6d, HSoft17, DOA, DAS, NS, PEN: 80-85%

The cards that are looked at are your two cards and the dealers card.

19-20 (2-1)
21 (3-1)
suited 21 (15-1)
678 (30-1)
777 (100-1)
suited 678 (150-1)
suited 777 (200-1)

(I'm not fully sure, i'll double check the plain 777 and suited 678 odds).
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
I haven't seen that payout schedule before, but it is similar to the one on the Wizard's website:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix8.html#LuckyLucky

I don't know if counting alone could beat this side bet since the big payouts are for rare hands that usually aren't counted. The small bonuses for 21, 20 and 19 probably don't add up to much. I think you would need more information than just counting.

-Sonny-
 
Z

zachs

Active Member
#4
#4
Sevens.

There is a side bet at our casino, and if your 2 cards are a 7, and the dealers card is a 7, you get 100-1 on your bet in the side-bet circle.

You are also allowed to play other peoples side-bet circles.

Do you think this is beatable? For example, if you just watched 2 tables at the same time, maybe with a few others helping and just side-counted sevens? Or is it too rare to see Several 7's left with say 2 decks to go?
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Is there any other payment schedule besides the 100-1? that would seem to be a painfully long shot to bet much money on.

In general, you could use a "seven to non-seven" count, and once the ratio passes a certain level, the bet would be +EV.

As just a hunch, even if you had a regular count that reckoned sevens (like KO), it probably still wouldn't be very well suited to this bet.
 
Z

zachs

Active Member
#6
#6
19-20 2-1
21 3-1
suited 21 15-1
678 30-1
777 100-1
suited 678 150-1
suited 777 200-1

I am not sure if the suited 678 is correct, i'll check on that. Those are the other payouts
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
looking at the pay schedule it is probably a plus EV side bet in ANY high count.
TC = +4 i'm guessing. If you could count the 7's i really wonder if it would be plus EV. what would it take to make it so that of every 99 hands you bet it on you get at least one 777? if you can find that scenario then it is profitable, though the variance on the bet, i Bet would be a bastard, since the chance of hitting 777 is soooo low.
 
Z

zachs

Active Member
#13
#13
Most people Do not play this side bet (for whatever reason), so most of the time you are able to bet everyone else's lucky lucky's at the table.
 
L

Licentia

Banned
#14
#14
zachs said:
Most people Do not play this side bet (for whatever reason), so most of the time you are able to bet everyone else's lucky lucky's at the table.
Click to expand...
Are you a card counter Zachs, or recreational gambler?

I disagree with your analysis. On the contrary I find that with side bets the Ploppies are forcefull to have you play as well. That is my experience.

Licentia
 
M

miplet

Active Member
#18
#18
SleightOfHand said:
Damn. I was hoping that with Miplet's previous post was implying that it was beatable. Thanks Sonny
Click to expand...
Beatable and worthwhile are 2 differant things. The paytable that was posted at the begining of this thread had a player edge of 0.14 % (14 cents per $100 bet) at the begining of the shoe (assuming me and excel were having a good day that time). I don't have the software to analize it any further.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
miplet said:
The paytable that was posted at the begining of this thread had a player edge of 0.14 % (14 cents per $100 bet) at the begining of the shoe (assuming me and excel were having a good day that time).
Click to expand...
I get the same results. I assumed that paytable was too good to be true so I used the one from Shackleford's website. It was only slightly different so I assumed that the original poster made a simple mistake.

Using the standard paytable, the bet gets positive about 20% of the time but the average advantage is very low, only around 3%. That gives an EV of 0.58% per hour. With a $25 max bet you would earn about $14/hour with computer-perfect play. Using a simplified custom card counting system will drop the EV to around $5/hour, but you also have to factor in the losses from the BJ hands (about $5/hour at a $10 minimum table). Using a standard card counting system like HiLo or Zen will be pretty much worthless for the side bet.

-Sonny-
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
L o l

Is your question a joke ?

Before a side bet appears on a blackjack table the powers that be need to be 100% CERTAIN that the
house advantage is VERY HIGH, in order to justify slowing down the game with a flood of $1 and $5 bets.

Side Bets ordinarily present the house with an advantage in the 5% to 15% range, as opposed to .2% to .8%
on the basic blackjack bet, depending on the no. of decks and the rules in effect.

Do the math !

If you cannot "do the math", just engage your brain and maintain a healthy level of cynicism and skepticism, while continuing to ask relevant questions.

 
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