Mathematical difference in bankrolls? (read)

[scotthimself]

So some teammates and I are getting ready to try our hand, but we're concerned with bankroll requirements. We were wondering if there is any mathematical advantage to having a full bankroll at the beginning of an attempt or to have a fraction, say half, of that bankroll with replenishable income to replace it if it bottoms out.

To put this into a more understandable format:

We start now with $5,000 at a $25 unit, and an incoming $5,000 to add to the bankroll in the coming months.

We start in the coming months with $10,000 at a $25 unit.

Using the logic that any time not spent playing blackjack is a reduction in profits, as the advantage is with the counter, it would seem that the earliest one can get 50-ish units the better - start playing and if you run out of money in your bankroll try again when you get another 50-ish units. This seems mathematically identical to starting with 100-ish units later on, except that you have the profits earned through Blackjack if you start earlier.

One other question: Are simulators that calculate RoR applying all profits to the bankroll? It would seem not judging by their output, but I'm not positive. Our current plan is to start in 3 weeks with about 3/4 of the bankroll we should have for our unit, and to apply all profits to the bankroll until our RoR drops significantly, then to take profits.

 

[zengrifter]

Yes, you may (in theory) start now... IF you are ready. BUT 10k is a little light for $25u.
What is your plan? Where will you play? What type of games? What will be the betting strategy, etc.? zg

 

[scotthimself]

Yes, you may (in theory) start now... IF you are ready. BUT 10k is a little light for $25u.
What is your plan? Where will you play? What type of games? What will be the betting strategy, etc.? zg

Would prefer not to post casino names, but it's a Florida casino. S17, DAS, 6D, 75% pen

Betting strat is a simple spread of [Unit(True Count - 1)], max bet of $150. 4 of us on the team, all of near-equivalent skill, on the same bankroll. Object is to get as many hands in as possible. Trips about 4 times a month for 10~ hours.

 

[EasyRhino]

Ran powersim on play-all, $10-$150 spread, bet ramp in positive hi-lo true counts is just 25-50-75-100-125-150.

$10k bankroll has a 10% ROR. $5k bankroll has a 32% ROR.

So, there would be a very substantial chance that you guys would tap out that first bankroll pretty quickly. Have to reload, and then risk tapping it out all again.

Also, are you talking about individual sessions that last 10 hours? The seminoles could get pretty annoyed.

 

[sagefr0g]

Would prefer not to post casino names, but it's a Florida casino. S17, DAS, 6D, 75% pen

Betting strat is a simple spread of [Unit(True Count - 1)], max bet of $150. 4 of us on the team, all of near-equivalent skill, on the same bankroll. Object is to get as many hands in as possible. Trips about 4 times a month for 10~ hours.

does this joint also have late surrender? if it's the joint i think it is you might get 75% occasionally but more like 67%-70% pen most of the time. still a relatively lucrative venue because of other factors. PM me with the name of the joint and i'll fill you in on those other factors.

 

[shadroch]

Seminoles have BJ? I thought the only BJ in Florida was the SunCruz ships.

 

[scotthimself]

We're all 20 and are taking the only gambling course of action we have - short "cruises" into international waters. To make the most of our time out there we're going to be banging and bruising the tables as much as we can during the "gambling hours".

So the combined RoR, correct me if I'm wrong, is 10.24% for using 2 $5k bankrolls (0.32 x 0.32), making it mathematically equivalent to starting with an initial $10k bankroll. This makes me wonder why men far smarter than I and much more knowledgable than I can hope to be on this game suggest such astronomical bankroll amounts (this is not a challenge, just honest curiosity). It would seem that, going by the logic of more time spent at the table is more profit earned (see the forum post on "leaving when behind" or any of Stanford Wong's advice on monetary goals, and how he recommends time goals instead to maximize profits) it would seem that starting at a 1/2 or even 1/4 bankroll would be ideal assuming all of the bankroll is not currently available. This tells me that the sooner you can get a solid session out of your fractioned bankroll you should be playing, not hoarding money to make your eventual run at the tables.

Is my logic flawed somewhere? We've been debating this back and forth on the team for a couple months now, and our general consensus has been to start ASAP, so I came here to find out what the pros thought.

 

[sagefr0g]

Seminoles have BJ? I thought the only BJ in Florida was the SunCruz ships.

i don't think the Seminoles have it yet, but they are close.
you got SunCruz, BigM (which might be SunCrus ), sterling cruise line (out side cape canaveral) and SeaEscape (ft lauderdale).
ievery SunCruz i ever saw was pretty crappy. SeaEscape was pretty good except for boarding expenses. never did try Sterling but it sounded pretty good.

 

[sagefr0g]

....... To make the most of our time out there we're going to be banging and bruising the tables as much as we can during the "gambling hours".
..... This makes me wonder why men far smarter than I and much more knowledgable than I can hope to be on this game suggest such astronomical bankroll amounts (this is not a challenge, just honest curiosity). .....
Is my logic flawed somewhere? We've been debating this back and forth on the team for a couple months now, and our general consensus has been to start ASAP, so I came here to find out what the pros thought.

not a pro here lol not even close. but i think i've played this joint you are targeting. your probably going to get four hours play maybe four and a half per trip. if this joint is the one i think it is there is a definite big advantage you can get. PM me and i'll explain.
also i'd just add sounds as if you guys haven't gotten your feet wet yet. that being the case proceed with caution you wouldn't want to take the full body plunge three miles out in the Atlantic.

 

[scotthimself]

PM sent - though that post was kind of disconcerting. Are all boats going out of Florida 18+, since they needed to be technically outside of Florida before any gambling could take place up until recently? If so that would broaden our options considerably, as we were under the impression that we were limited to 1 company within driving distance (fair clip at that).

We feel like we're doing it right, and have been drilling nightly for the past couple of months. We plan to start out with everyone pitching into the BR in an equivalent portion, and to build it to a point where we can hopefully absorb the loss inherent in a more profitable team strategy, such as BP. The team strategy (several equivalent players operating under the same BR) we're using seems to be ideal to hit the long run ASAP, though statistically I don't believe it helps our RoR at all. All it seems to be capable of doing is either pulling the bottom out of our BR in the first 2 nights or doubling it as opposed to a single player pulling the same hours and needing to wait 2 weeks for results.

If trust is not an issue (obviously it's always a looming shadow, but for the sake of simplicity let's assume it isn't) is there any benefit to going solo over team play of this sort?

 

[Chapel]

Is my logic flawed somewhere? We've been debating this back and forth on the team for a couple months now, and our general consensus has been to start ASAP, so I came here to find out what the pros thought.

I think the only major difference between $5k and then adding $5k as opposed to just starting with the $10k is that after your original $5k is tapped you have to stand up from the table. But then again, I'm just a math guy not a pro-black jack player.

 

[scotthimself]

That was my understanding as well, chapel. Other than a situation such as not having the chips to double when BS calls for it or to finish out a high count with a solid top-bet I don't see any actual advantage to waiting.

Still waiting on a counter-point, don't want to risk a higher "true" RoR than needed.

 

[EasyRhino]

If everyone's playing in the same fashion (and at seperate tables), you are correct it doesn't affect your RoR at all. You'll just get to the end point (whatever that is) faster.

As for the downside of a split bankroll, well... if everyone chips in a total of $5k, and then you lose it all, what do you think that would do to the team's willingness to chip in another $5k? It could be cripping from a morale standpoint. (If you had a $10k starting roll, then you would have "only" halved it, and then be debating if you want to drop your bets in half... which may not be much better).

Downsides to a to a team? Well, if you're all on the same shp at the same time, that might arouse extra suspicion than a single player would.

 

[scotthimself]

We're all friends, and everyone understands RoR and that this isn't a sure-fire deal without an infinite bankroll. Your point stands though.

As far as suspicion goes we have the whole nobody-knows-nobody system down.

 

[sagefr0g]

PM sent - though that post was kind of disconcerting. Are all boats going out of Florida 18+, since they needed to be technically outside of Florida before any gambling could take place up until recently? If so that would broaden our options considerably, as we were under the impression that we were limited to 1 company within driving distance (fair clip at that).

We feel like we're doing it right, and have been drilling nightly for the past couple of months. We plan to start out with everyone pitching into the BR in an equivalent portion, and to build it to a point where we can hopefully absorb the loss inherent in a more profitable team strategy, such as BP. The team strategy (several equivalent players operating under the same BR) we're using seems to be ideal to hit the long run ASAP, though statistically I don't believe it helps our RoR at all. All it seems to be capable of doing is either pulling the bottom out of our BR in the first 2 nights or doubling it as opposed to a single player pulling the same hours and needing to wait 2 weeks for results.

If trust is not an issue (obviously it's always a looming shadow, but for the sake of simplicity let's assume it isn't) is there any benefit to going solo over team play of this sort?

some of these boats out of Florida get really crowded at the tables. some of the boats (like the Horizon out of Miami) are so small and have tables crowded in an area in such a manner that wonging in is difficult to begin with. but added onto that the Horizon had this big thug lookin character that patroled the tables and would run off anyone standing around watching games in progress. not trying to rain on your parade just trying to give a little insight as to how some of these boats are.

 

[zengrifter]

$10k bankroll has a 10% ROR. $5k bankroll has a 32% ROR.

So, there would be a very substantial chance that you guys would tap out that first bankroll pretty quickly. Have to reload, and then risk tapping it out all again.

All things being equal, the combined RoR of two 5k banks would still be the same as the one 10k bank.

They could call it M1-M2... and if necessary M3 and M4. zg

 

[rukus]

We're all 20 and are taking the only gambling course of action we have - short "cruises" into international waters. To make the most of our time out there we're going to be banging and bruising the tables as much as we can during the "gambling hours".

So the combined RoR, correct me if I'm wrong, is 10.24% for using 2 $5k bankrolls (0.32 x 0.32), making it mathematically equivalent to starting with an initial $10k bankroll. This makes me wonder why men far smarter than I and much more knowledgable than I can hope to be on this game suggest such astronomical bankroll amounts (this is not a challenge, just honest curiosity). It would seem that, going by the logic of more time spent at the table is more profit earned (see the forum post on "leaving when behind" or any of Stanford Wong's advice on monetary goals, and how he recommends time goals instead to maximize profits) it would seem that starting at a 1/2 or even 1/4 bankroll would be ideal assuming all of the bankroll is not currently available. This tells me that the sooner you can get a solid session out of your fractioned bankroll you should be playing, not hoarding money to make your eventual run at the tables.

Is my logic flawed somewhere? We've been debating this back and forth on the team for a couple months now, and our general consensus has been to start ASAP, so I came here to find out what the pros thought.

youre logic is not flawed. as easy rhino mentioned, you just run the risk of tapping out the first 5k pretty quickly in only a few sessions if you hit some bad negative swings. you would have to wait a while before playing again. BUT that's fine as long as you are comfortable waiting to reload. and as ZG pointed out, even a 10k bankroll isnt enough to support a 25 min bet game (unless you plan to wong in exclusively). if you do spread 1-6 (25-150) with wonging, your hourly EV wont be too high. so to sum up: playing on a partial and repleneshable bank is fine as long as you realize you run the risk of tapping out (could happen quicker than you may think).

just as a rule of thumb, when i play a long weekend, call it 4 days, i generally bring about half my bank with me so as to bring the risk of completely tapping out over the trip down to some (NONZERO, but) acceptable level.

 

[moo321]

Seems to me like 4 people should be able to string together another $5k somehow. Friends, student loans, etc.

 

[checkmugged]

It's quite possible I'm the only prick here but you're not getting an answer out of me because you put (read) in your title. Did you think otherwise your post would go ignored? Do you think that your post is more important than other people's? I would just like to know the thought process behind putting that in the Title line on forums ...

Checkmugged

 

[scotthimself]

Because "Mathematical difference in bankrolls?" would, to me, appear to be someone asking how a 100$ bankroll differred from a 10,000$ bankroll mathematically, which would be an absurdly stupid question for anyone who understands basic statistics to ask. The (read) was added to hopefully allow some people who might otherwise ignore my post because of its seemingly moronic title to enter into it with a curious mind, preferably keeping them open to the concept of the post rather than cause them to shut the message out completely because of their presupposed notions based on the title.

Yes, that is a longwinded explanation but you asked. I won't be arguing the merits of my post title further, so hopefully that satisfies.

Back to the cards!