My 1st Strategy - FREE!!!

[Reno Dude]

I would recommend for no one to go to the casino until I tell you more. A complexity arises when you have to leave the casino down money. If you always leave the table once you get your money back you have no problem. But if you have to leave before you win your bankroll back, then the next day you have to recoup your losses at a different table, or the same table a day later. This gets a little complex but I made some rules to deal with this. I could use a lot of input on these however.

You also need a very good bankroll. I would say 500 times your base bet to be safe. So $2500 for $5 base bet should be enough. Unfortunately I have no software to test these things. I just went by trial and error myself because I didn't have an instruction manual to follow.

Anyway, I don't want to get into this aspect yet. Just worry about the basics for now. Just test the strategy on a computer BlackJack game or sim now!

Licentia.

This guy sounds like a snake oil salesman :laugh:

 

[Licentia]

This guy sounds like a snake oil salesman :laugh:

Why don't you try it rather than mock it?

I can't come to your home and test it for you.

Fact is some people will try it, see that it works and never respond, content that the mockers will hide the truth that it works. That is not my goal however.

My goal is that people test it and say, "Yup, it works."

And nothing is for sale by the way. I am not selling anything.

Licentia.

 

[Sonny]

But one day while I was playing around on "Monopoly Casino" and messing around with different ideas I was struck with an idea: Why not increase my bets after a win rather than after a loss like so many amateur players do!

The French mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert had the same idea back in the 1700s. It didn’t work then either. If you don’t understand why progression systems fail then how can you expect to create one that works? If you don’t understand the problem, how can you find a solution?

But as the Croupier's hot streak ends and mine begins, my bets increase and increase!

But your system does not predict player/dealer streaks. It only changes your bets slightly after then happen (or in the middle of them). The number of opportunities you misplay will overcome any advantage from the opportunities you recognize.

But there was a problem. The bets would - although rarely - increase far too high for the table limits.

That’s one of the reasons that a martingale-type progression always fails. In order to be successful you need two things: No table limits and an infinite bankroll to absorb all the negative streaks you’ll play through. This is covered in the sticky thread at the top of this forum. It would be very useful for you to read through it. It will answer a lot of question you have.

Obviously I needed a game that had a lower house edge. That game was BlackJack.

You don’t need a game with a lower house edge, you need one with lower variance. You need a game that experiences smaller fluctuations. BJ is not the answer.

As you get more and more BJs, your bets increase and increase and before you know it you have recouped all of your losses and more!

But as you get more BJs the probability of getting another one decreases. We don’t need to run any computer simulations to see that it just doesn’t make sense.

Neither my strategy nor Card Counting can increase the percentage of hands that you win. Both strategies work by betting low when circumstances are not in your favor, and by betting high when they are.

But your system does not determine when circumstances are in your favor. Your “internal indicator” is just a “player BJ vs. dealer BJ” comparison. In both cases your advantage has gone down because the profitable cards are gone from play. Your results will not be any different than randomly changing your bets.

The bankroll tells me only when to increase and decrease bets.

Then it is no different then any other progression system. Your internal indicator doesn’t tell you anything helpful and your bets are based on external indicators. You haven’t invented anything that people haven’t been using already.

I really think you need to do some research before you start creating systems and spending so much time testing them. Look at some of the reasons other systems fail and try to understand why. You will be able to save yourself a lot of time and energy (and Mortin!).

-Sonny-

 

[Licentia]

This guy sounds like a snake oil salesman :laugh:

:laugh: at the people who mock and don't test. :whip:

You will :cry: when I publish a book with my strategies.

 

[Licentia]

The French mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert had the same idea back in the 1700s. It didn’t work then either. If you don’t understand why progression systems fail then how can you expect to create one that works? If you don’t understand the problem, how can you find a solution?

Excuse me for a moment... AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!
Better...

I know that increasing bets after a win does not beat the casino edge! That is why I drop my bet to base after I get my money back. That is the key!!! But without the 3 to 2 payout on BJ the strategy won't work either.

If I did not drop my bet to base when I got my money back then the system would be a progression system. But because I drop my bet after I get my money back - And I Always Get My Money Back - I enter every losing streak with my bets low. Therefore I lose less than I win. Very simple concept and it works and I tested it until my arms ached! In BJ my bets never needed to increase more than 10x my base. I always got my money back.

But your system does not predict player/dealer streaks. It only changes your bets slightly after then happen (or in the middle of them). The number of opportunities you misplay will overcome any advantage from the opportunities you recognize.

It doesn't predict them no, but it always has my bets low in preparation for the losing streak to come and my bets keep increasing as my win streak occurs. How can I not win more always betting high during a win streak and low during a losing streak?

That’s one of the reasons that a martingale-type progression always fails. In order to be successful you need two things: No table limits and an infinite bankroll to absorb all the negative streaks you’ll play through. This is covered in the sticky thread at the top of this forum. It would be very useful for you to read through it. It will answer a lot of question you have.

Like I said, my bets never needed to increase more than 10x the base. This is only possible in BlackJack because of the 3 to 2 payouts. If BJs paid 1 to 1 then I would have to double my bets like I did in Roulette.

Think of 3 BJs in a row. The first my bet is $5 I win $7.50, the second is $10 I win $15, the third is $15 I win $22.50. The bets compound and push me over my starting bankroll without fail.

You don’t need a game with a lower house edge, you need one with lower variance. You need a game that experiences smaller fluctuations. BJ is not the answer.

Yes BJ is not the answer as far as a house edge is determined. At the time I didn't know better. I just thought a lower house edge would be the answer. But I am sure that if I multiplied and divided my bets by 2 after each win and loss that my bets would not increase as much as they did in Roulette. Probably still over the house table limits though.

What I understand now and did not understand then is the 3 to 2 payouts on BJ. Without the 3 to 2 payouts my bet increases by one unit will sometimes fail to win me back all my money. I know that. If BJs pay 1 to 1 my strategy will most of the time get my money back but will sometimes fail to do so. I have tested this aspect the hard way on a BJ VLT that did not pay 3 to 2.


But the 3 to 2 payouts compound the amount of money won as the bets increase and it is ALWAYS enough to push me back up to and above my starting bankroll.

But as you get more BJs the probability of getting another one decreases. We don’t need to run any computer simulations to see that it just doesn’t make sense.

You are talking about in what happens in a single Shoe. Don't do that! Pretend this box is the shoe: [] Now please think outside of it. Think many shoes! [] [] [] [] []

Sure, I can agree that your probability of getting another BJ in that particular shoe decreases, but I play from shoe to shoe. My bet may increase 1 unit in 1 shoe, 0 in the next, 3 in the next after and 2 in the next shoe after that, before I win my money back. Tell me you can't get 10 BJs over 5 shoes and 0 over another 5 shoes. Both can happen and do happen. My bets are low when I get 0 BJs over 5 shoes and high when I get 10 BJs over 5 shoes.

But your system does not determine when circumstances are in your favor. Your “internal indicator” is just a “player BJ vs. dealer BJ” comparison. In both cases your advantage has gone down because the profitable cards are gone from play. Your results will not be any different than randomly changing your bets.

Yes, and the Dealer get's more BJs when he is hot and the player gets more when he is hot. Very simple. But that alone does not cut the mustard. Again please think outside the [] for a moment. It is the fact that my bets drop to base once I have won back my money that completes this strategy.

What difference does my bets dropping to base make? Because I always get my money back, therefore, my bets always drop to base before the losing streak sets in. If I did not drop my bets when I got my money back, I would start losing hands, and too many hands before the dealer's BJs pushed my bets down. Then I would lose according to the house edge. But since my bets are always at base when I enter a losing streak, I do not lose as much as I win.

Winning -> Bets keep increasing up to 10x base. Can get BJs at 3 to 2 payout at $50 bets for $75 profit!
Losing -> Bets keep stay low. Dealer gets BJs while my bets are $5-$15.

Then it is no different then any other progression system. Your internal indicator doesn’t tell you anything helpful and your bets are based on external indicators. You haven’t invented anything that people haven’t been using already.

I already had my frustrated cry for this post at the beginning. Only one per post.
3 to 2 payouts compounding at higher bets and winning back my start money dropping my bets to base so that I enter every losing streak with my bets low. Gosh how that is like a progression system I don't know. A progression system would not drop my bets to base before every losing streak begins.

I really think you need to do some research before you start creating systems and spending so much time testing them. Look at some of the reasons other systems fail and try to understand why. You will be able to save yourself a lot of time and energy (and Mortin!).

-Sonny-

Thanks for being concerned about my physical discomfort Sonny. That's the nicest thing anyone has said today.

But I can assure you Sonny, the 3 aspects I listed: Increase after win, Drop bets to base when buy-in is recouped and the 3 to 2 payouts compounding is enough to make the system work. All 3 seperate or only 2 of the 3 together and it fails.

Think over many shoes and not just one shoe. I never claimed that I win all my money back in a single shoe. The entire process of winning my money back can take 20+ shoes I am sure. But over those 20+ shoes I get more BJs than the Dealer. If I didn't, then my bets would not be able to increase to 10x base. My bets are high and the 3 to 2 payouts mean that I win enough to push me back up where I started.

I don't see what else I can say. You guys have to take my word and test it for yourselves. If you don't want to test it for yourselves then there is no way to make you believe.

Licentia.

 

[TheProdigy]

Why don't you try it rather than mock it?

People are giving you harsh criticisms in an attemt to save you the eventual and innevital pain you will endure. If you can learn a lesson without "paying for it", you really should take that chance. Just trying to help. Good luck either way.

 

[Sonny]

It doesn't predict them [streaks] no, but it always has my bets low in preparation for the losing streak to come and my bets keep increasing as my win streak occurs. How can I not win more always betting high during a win streak and low during a losing streak?

Because, as you said, your system does not predict the streaks. You cannot bet high during a win streak if you can’t predict that win streak. It is the same as randomly changing your bets. To make a long story short, there is absolutely no way to predict individual winning/losing streaks. It can’t be done. If the roulette wheel hits black 12 times in a row it does not mean that black is likely to continue or that red is due. Any system that is based on streaks is bound to fail. Look at any other money management system and you will see why.

Yes, and the Dealer get's more BJs when he is hot and the player gets more when he is hot. Very simple.

Very simple, but very wrong. Even if you get a BJ every 11 hands (almost twice the normal rate!) it doesn’t mean that you are “hot.” You might lose the other 10 hands, or even most of them. The number of BJs you get has nothing to do with how “hot” or “cold” you are. There is no correlation between the two. That is why your only internal indicator is not helpful.

A progression system would not drop my bets to base before every losing streak begins.

Many of them do. Again, look at any of the other systems that use quit points, stop-loss limits, stop-win limits, “tiers” or “levels” of betting or any other kind of gimmick like that. The results are always the same. This is very obvious once you start researching other money management systems and see why they fail in the long run.

But I can assure you Sonny, the 3 aspects I listed: Increase after win, Drop bets to base when buy-in is recouped and the 3 to 2 payouts compounding is enough to make the system work.

And I can assure you that they don’t. Countless people have used those same techniques. Numerous people have created the very same system that you are taking about. It didn’t work for them and it won’t work for you. People have been doing exactly what you are doing for literally hundreds of years without ever creating a long-term winner. That is why I suggested that you research some of the older money management systems. Your system has already been invented, tested and discarded by numerous gamblers in history. Don’t make the same mistake as they did.

-Sonny-

 

[Licentia]

People are giving you harsh criticisms in an attemt to save you the eventual and innevital pain you will endure. If you can learn a lesson without "paying for it", you really should take that chance. Just trying to help. Good luck either way.

Dude, I have done adequate testing. It works. I have used it in the casinos. It works.

I have a better strategy already. I don't use this anymore.

 

[Reno Dude]

Dude, I have done adequate testing. It works. I have used it in the casinos. It works.

I have a better strategy already. I don't use this anymore.

If it works so well why would you work on a new strategy?

 

[TheProdigy]

Dude, I have done adequate testing. It works. I have used it in the casinos. It works.

I have a better strategy already. I don't use this anymore.

Is this your full-time job? I know I'd rather ciphen free money from casinos than work at a regular job, and I assume you would do the same. You must be on your way to early retirement since it always works without fail.

 

[Licentia]

Because, as you said, your system does not predict the streaks. You cannot bet high during a win streak if you can’t predict that win streak. It is the same as randomly changing your bets. To make a long story short, there is absolutely no way to predict individual winning/losing streaks. It can’t be done. If the roulette wheel hits black 12 times in a row it does not mean that black is likely to continue or that red is due. Any system that is based on streaks is bound to fail. Look at any other money management system and you will see why.

Dude. As I win my bets get higher and higher. If the win streak is short my bets get knocked down by Dealer BJs. But then my bets will go up again until I get all my money back, it happens without fail.

Yes I can bet high during a win streak because the more I win the more my bet increases. No, it is not the same as randomly changing my bets. I don't predict streaks, the strategy automatically changes my bets for me. I know if a wheel hits black 12 times that it does not change the 50% chance that the next will be black. It wouldn't matter. If my bet on Black increased 12 times in a row and I didn't have my money back at that point, the red that hit next would reduce my bet. My system does not fail!!! If you test it instead of dispute it you will see for yourself.

Very simple, but very wrong. Even if you get a BJ every 11 hands (almost twice the normal rate!) it doesn’t mean that you are “hot.” You might lose the other 10 hands, or even most of them. The number of BJs you get has nothing to do with how “hot” or “cold” you are. There is no correlation between the two. That is why your only internal indicator is not helpful.

Let me tell you how it always happened: I would be playing and the Dealer was hot. All of a sudden BJs started to appear. Player's would hit hard hands like 12s and get 21s. or 16s and get 21s. At this point the players are starting to get hot. But it doesn't necessarily mean you are winning higher than your normal percent at that time. But your bets keep increasing as you get BJs. Then suddenly, as though I could feel it, the floodgates would open and the dealer would bust and bust and stand on 17s and 18s and my bets would be high and I would win back all my losses. I could be down $300 on $5 bets. My bets would now be at $50 we will say as an example. That is only 6 wins, or 4 wins and a Double Down or a Split to get my money back. It happened this way every time. I would get my money back, not necessarily quickly all the time, but I would always get it back. Guys test it and see!

And yes, you get more BJs than the Dealer when you are hot and vice versa. You can see it for yourself by simply increasing and decreasing your bets the way I say.

Many of them do. Again, look at any of the other systems that use quit points, stop-loss limits, stop-win limits, “tiers” or “levels” of betting or any other kind of gimmick like that. The results are always the same. This is very obvious once you start researching other money management systems and see why they fail in the long run.

What have I been afraid of all this time? Worried that the casinos would catch on to me. The comments from the Dealer at the one casino who commented how I win like that all the time. What a joke! No one can believe it even if you paint a picture right under their eyes. No one can see what is right in front of them because they believe it can't be possible. I can't wait to go to Vegas and I will walk up to the pitbosses and tell them I am going to beat them with my strategy. They won't believe me! LOL! Ridiculous.

And I can assure you that they don’t. Countless people have used those same techniques. Numerous people have created the very same system that you are taking about. It didn’t work for them and it won’t work for you. People have been doing exactly what you are doing for literally hundreds of years without ever creating a long-term winner. That is why I suggested that you research some of the older money management systems. Your system has already been invented, tested and discarded by numerous gamblers in history. Don’t make the same mistake as they did.-Sonny-

It works, and until you test it you can't dismiss it. Trust me guys, how many thousands of ideas I have tested. They never cease to come to my mind, and I have tested them all until they failed. But this never fails. Not once. Not once! I have tested thousands of ideas, and only found 2 that have ever worked. This works. I will maintain it to the grave, because no one can disprove me and I have never seen it fail myself.

You guys run a sim and show me the results and prove that it was run exactly as I say and I will believe.

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

If it works so well why would you work on a new strategy?

Because I wanted a strategy that worked like Card Counting and didn't require me to recoup losses. My new strategy gains a consistent edge over the casino. I have win sessions and losing sessions. The win sessions are more frequent and larger than the loss sessions.

If I left the casino down money in my bankroll - which is inevitable - I have to start the new day at a new table in that or another casino. Or even if it's the same table, circumstances have changed. I then have to play to get my money back before I can make a profit. It works but I did not enjoy the ups and downs. But I plan to use it in a modified form to compliment my new strategy.

Regardless, it works exactly as I told you.

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

Is this your full-time job? I know I'd rather ciphen free money from casinos than work at a regular job, and I assume you would do the same. You must be on your way to early retirement since it always works without fail.

Yes dude, I quit my job to do this full-time. Yes, it always works without fail. Yes, I always recoup my bankroll losses.

Now please test the strategy as I say and you will see the same result.

 

[Licentia]

This a "what if"....

It has happened to me, what if you don't get a Bj for several sessions? A session is four days long. Like three sessions, twelve days...No Bj.

Thankfully someone is here to learn and not mock.

I am very shocked that you can play 12 days and not get a BJ. Unless they are very short sessions. But you say that a session is 4 days long... I don't understand how that is possible unless you are taking Speed. But it wouldn't matter. Your bets would stay at base. Your losses would be minimal. When those BJs start coming, and they will make up for themselves, your bets will increase and you will get your money back.

If you are stopping and then starting play again at the same or a different table, and you have losses accrued, you need to win back your money in chunks. If you sit at one table and lose $200 from your bankroll, and you start the next day at a losing table, your losses could go up to $300, $400, or more. I don't know if you can expect to win that much back at one time. I always tried to win my bankroll back in chunks that are 20x-40x the base bet. So if your base bet is $5 then win it back $100-$200 at a time. So that means you start that new session with a $200 buy-in for example, and your bankroll losses are $400, then set a goal to win $100 + your bankroll of $200 which is $300. Once you win that $100-$200 drop your bets to base and start the process over. Also, when you are winning back your bankroll, don't put money into a winnings pile but rather into your bankroll pile. You aren't trying to make a profit, you are trying to make your money back.

I would also recommend taking 50% of your winnings and applying it to your bankroll losses. It is no fun spending all day in the casino trying to get back a huge bankroll loss. It cuts your profits in one sense, but you are back to winning sooner.

This is something that I would like to see tested via a computer program. Can a person always start at a new table and win back all the losses from the previous session? I don't know.

But when you do start the second session, make sure your bets are always at base to begin. Don't start at the bet level you left off on. If you do and you sit at a table where the Dealer is hot, you are going to lose massive money.

If you want to dodge the mockers you can PM me.

Licentia.

 

[Licentia]

How about because your system has no mathematical worth what-so-ever, and hence doesn't give the player any advantage or chance of winning in the long run? It doesn't really do you any credit to use the work "mathematical" when everything you base your system on is anecdotal in nature.
I'm waiting with baited breath for you to tell me how much the second 'system' costs.

RJT.

LOL. Nothing is for sale. You can buy the book when I write it and it will detail both strategies.

Test it and you will see for yourself!

 

[Sonny]

Dude. As I win my bets get higher and higher.

But that’s exactly the problem. You have no reason to think that you will win the next hand just because you won the previous one. You already know that. In blackjack you are always more likely to lose the next hand. Yet you are continually raising your bets even though you know you are more likely to lose the next hand. I don’t need to run a computer sim to see that this idea doesn’t work. It just doesn’t make sense. If the logic doesn’t work, the math never will.

Even if you hit a winning streak and win a bunch of big bets, you will get clobbered by the losing streaks and the choppy win/loss situations where you win the small bets then lose the bigger bets. Since your system does not determine when you actually have an advantage it is exactly the same as randomly betting your money. You will be raising your bets into losing streaks more often than you find winning streaks. Your system does not predict streaks and it does not identify advantageous situations. I don't understand how you expect it to work. As I said, it just doesn't make sense.

-Sonny-

 

[Licentia]

But that’s exactly the problem. You have no reason to think that you will win the next hand just because you won the previous one. You already know that. In blackjack you are always more likely to lose the next hand. Yet you are continually raising your bets even though you know you are more likely to lose the next hand. I don’t need to run a computer sim to see that this idea doesn’t work. It just doesn’t make sense. If the logic doesn’t work, the math never will.

Even if you hit a winning streak and win a bunch of big bets, you will get clobbered by the losing streaks and the choppy win/loss situations where you win the small bets then lose the bigger bets. Since your system does not determine when you actually have an advantage it is exactly the same as randomly betting your money. You will be raising your bets into losing streaks more often than you find winning streaks. Your system does not predict streaks and it does not identify advantageous situations. I don't understand how you expect it to work. As I said, it just doesn't make sense.

-Sonny-

I can't help you man if you rely on your perspective to make sense of this. You were trained in Card Counting theology. I was not. It is a jump for you to see this. Just sit down and play for 1 hour on a computer game and see what happens.

I just had a guy pm me and say that he has tested it online and says it works and he is asking me more questions about it.

It's up to you. You have my word that I tested it adequately.

 

[rdorange]

not good enuf..

I just went on line and played, poor results.
Not worth pursuing!

 

[TheProdigy]

Yes dude, I quit my job to do this full-time. Yes, it always works without fail. Yes, I always recoup my bankroll losses.

Now please test the strategy as I say and you will see the same result.

Wow. That's cool that you were able to quit your job and do something full-time to make easy money using something that you created. How long have you been doing this for a living? How many hours do you put in per week? How much, on average, do you make per hour?

 

[RJT]

LOL. Nothing is for sale. You can buy the book when I write it and it will detail both strategies.

Test it and you will see for yourself!

How about this - no. You strategies are bogus and now you've admited that you are looking to market a product. Usual system seller. Never fail - rubbish. All card games are just an exercise in probability distributions. Simple as that. You system will not work as it will fail to establish any mathematical edge. We could set up a simulation to prove it i'm sure, but as i've told the dozens of people that come along hawking their various progression systems (that what your system is - just looking for a specific indicator to ramp your bet) i don't need to re-invent the wheel to know it's round.
I mean do you honestly believe that the game cares if your bankroll is up or down? All you're doing is a simple chase your losses system. Doesn't matter how many bells and baubles you put on it, it's just the same.
You ramp your bet slowly and yes that means you don't hit up against the table limit very often, but it still doesn't change the fact that you lose. Your major problem is that you're diluided enough to believe that going on to a game simulator and test a system until you get bored proves it works - not by a long shot. If you're genuine get a decent piece of simulation software like the software QFIT offers and prove it over a simulation of your strategy over a reasonable sample of hands. I don't however believe you are genuine. I think you are just another system hawker trying to pawn worthless information on people who don't know enough to see through the bull$hit.
You might be better off trying just general gambling boards rather than card counting boards - more chance of getting a thread where you won't get shot down by people who actually know how to play the game.

RJT.