Lonesome Gambler
Well-Known Member
This is an interesting thread because it illustrates a lot of common themes that I see on this board. I honestly hope that I don't come across as a jerk, but one thing that I've come to realize as I've grown more experienced is:
Most people that decide to take up AP and most people that post on this site will not be able to be more than marginally successful at it, if they're even successful at all.
I remember reading Snyder's article, "You Won't Win," and wondering why he went to such great lengths to seemingly discourage the majority of his potential reader base from studying the subject that he writes about, but at the same time I realized that he was giving sound advice. I hope that no one, especially Billy, takes offense at what I have to say because I'm not trying to put anyone down or be negative—I've just been concerned about some common themes on this board lately, and this seems like a good place to put them.
Now, I can hardly consider myself a "pro" or highly-experienced player; in fact, I've only recently been in a position to play enough hours to elevate myself slightly past the "recreational" level. I've always worked with a small bankroll and few resources, but from day one, I've approached the game like a business, and with a reasonable expectation of what I was in for. Anyone that's done the grind and played for any length of time can tell you that the ability to count cards and the availability of a few blackjack games nearby do not a successful player make. It takes a lot more factors, some of which are not easily realized.
First off, a player either needs a bankroll that will allow them to bet large enough to make money that is meaningful to them, or they must be willing to make less-than-meaningful money for a long while until they're able to move up in stakes. Then, that player has to be able to put in volume; games and a bankroll are not enough to profit, you must actually play. A lot. Next, you need games that offer you a reasonable expectation. Let's be honest, $10 AC games are not conducive to small bankrolls or small sample sizes.
And then there are the things that many people forget, but that ultimately will make or break you as an AP:
- Advanced strategies: I don't think recommending more strategies to players that are already struggling with why they aren't making good money counting is wise. These strategies are more powerful, but they are much harder to pull off in many ways, and there are more prerequisites to learning and executing them, some listed below.
- Discipline: All APs need to utilize good game selection, bankroll management principles, and keep good records. They must frequently analyze their play, practice, and look for opportunities to improve. They must also be disciplined enough to look at themselves and their abilities and make an honest assessment of their potential for improvement.
- Observation: Simply knowing a place to count cards is not enough. You need to be able to notice other opportunities and know how to use them to your advantage. You need to know how to recognize heat and avoid it. You need to always have your eyes open.
- Skill: Sure, you can count cards, but how many errors do you make? Simulations are great for analyzing games, but in the real world, conditions are very different. Game speed is slower, your count is off by 1 or 2, you play through too many negative rounds, your travel expenses are too high, etc. Are you still playing with a 1.5% edge?
- "Social engineering:" A lot of profit in the casinos comes not from the games themselves, per se, but from information that you gain from casino employees, including information that you're not supposed to have. If you're putting in reasonable time playing, how much do you know about a particular casino's procedures dealing with surveillance, dealing, pit, shift, breaks, etc.? How much can you find out?
- "Grift sense" (to steal another author's term) and personality: Like social engineering, this one isn't easy (or possible?) to learn. It's street-smarts vs. book-smarts. You can be the best counter/AP in the world, but if you can't read people and sense distrust, fear, agitation, and so on, then your playing time will be cut short from time to time, and you'll find that opportunities will disappear faster than they will for some players. You need to be aware of and notice things that other players won't catch onto. You also need to be able to talk to people and to inspire confidence. You must be, in other words, something of a confidence man. This is not easy, but I suspect that all successful APs have most of the makings of a great con artist.
Billy, when I read your early posts on this board, I though to myself: "this guy will never get it." I'm really glad to see that you've moved on to be able to take constructive criticism and advice from people willing to give it. That said, I want to caution that "learning advanced strategies" and "playing more to obtain a bigger sample size" won't cure all your troubles, and you need to be honest with yourself to see what those troubles might be. Hopefully this post is helpful, and I hope I don't come across as a know-it-all or snob because I certainly have a lot to learn myself. Like many other people have pointed out: making money as an AP is not easy, and it's not as glamorous as you may have seen in the movies. Most people that try will not end up rich; there's money to be made, but you need to have reasonable expectations. Good luck!
Most people that decide to take up AP and most people that post on this site will not be able to be more than marginally successful at it, if they're even successful at all.
I remember reading Snyder's article, "You Won't Win," and wondering why he went to such great lengths to seemingly discourage the majority of his potential reader base from studying the subject that he writes about, but at the same time I realized that he was giving sound advice. I hope that no one, especially Billy, takes offense at what I have to say because I'm not trying to put anyone down or be negative—I've just been concerned about some common themes on this board lately, and this seems like a good place to put them.
Now, I can hardly consider myself a "pro" or highly-experienced player; in fact, I've only recently been in a position to play enough hours to elevate myself slightly past the "recreational" level. I've always worked with a small bankroll and few resources, but from day one, I've approached the game like a business, and with a reasonable expectation of what I was in for. Anyone that's done the grind and played for any length of time can tell you that the ability to count cards and the availability of a few blackjack games nearby do not a successful player make. It takes a lot more factors, some of which are not easily realized.
First off, a player either needs a bankroll that will allow them to bet large enough to make money that is meaningful to them, or they must be willing to make less-than-meaningful money for a long while until they're able to move up in stakes. Then, that player has to be able to put in volume; games and a bankroll are not enough to profit, you must actually play. A lot. Next, you need games that offer you a reasonable expectation. Let's be honest, $10 AC games are not conducive to small bankrolls or small sample sizes.
And then there are the things that many people forget, but that ultimately will make or break you as an AP:
- Advanced strategies: I don't think recommending more strategies to players that are already struggling with why they aren't making good money counting is wise. These strategies are more powerful, but they are much harder to pull off in many ways, and there are more prerequisites to learning and executing them, some listed below.
- Discipline: All APs need to utilize good game selection, bankroll management principles, and keep good records. They must frequently analyze their play, practice, and look for opportunities to improve. They must also be disciplined enough to look at themselves and their abilities and make an honest assessment of their potential for improvement.
- Observation: Simply knowing a place to count cards is not enough. You need to be able to notice other opportunities and know how to use them to your advantage. You need to know how to recognize heat and avoid it. You need to always have your eyes open.
- Skill: Sure, you can count cards, but how many errors do you make? Simulations are great for analyzing games, but in the real world, conditions are very different. Game speed is slower, your count is off by 1 or 2, you play through too many negative rounds, your travel expenses are too high, etc. Are you still playing with a 1.5% edge?
- "Social engineering:" A lot of profit in the casinos comes not from the games themselves, per se, but from information that you gain from casino employees, including information that you're not supposed to have. If you're putting in reasonable time playing, how much do you know about a particular casino's procedures dealing with surveillance, dealing, pit, shift, breaks, etc.? How much can you find out?
- "Grift sense" (to steal another author's term) and personality: Like social engineering, this one isn't easy (or possible?) to learn. It's street-smarts vs. book-smarts. You can be the best counter/AP in the world, but if you can't read people and sense distrust, fear, agitation, and so on, then your playing time will be cut short from time to time, and you'll find that opportunities will disappear faster than they will for some players. You need to be aware of and notice things that other players won't catch onto. You also need to be able to talk to people and to inspire confidence. You must be, in other words, something of a confidence man. This is not easy, but I suspect that all successful APs have most of the makings of a great con artist.
Billy, when I read your early posts on this board, I though to myself: "this guy will never get it." I'm really glad to see that you've moved on to be able to take constructive criticism and advice from people willing to give it. That said, I want to caution that "learning advanced strategies" and "playing more to obtain a bigger sample size" won't cure all your troubles, and you need to be honest with yourself to see what those troubles might be. Hopefully this post is helpful, and I hope I don't come across as a know-it-all or snob because I certainly have a lot to learn myself. Like many other people have pointed out: making money as an AP is not easy, and it's not as glamorous as you may have seen in the movies. Most people that try will not end up rich; there's money to be made, but you need to have reasonable expectations. Good luck!
