Need Help with Betting Scheme

[uchicago]

Hey All,

I am going to LV in a few weeks on a 3-day trip with a $1500 BR and will be using HiLo at 2 different types of games: 6D H17 DAS LS RSA and DD H17 DAS RSA both with $2/3/5 minimums. I am trying to devise a betting scheme that maximizes EV and keeps trip ROR tolerably low (<10%) with little to no consideration for heat attraction as I only play 1-2x a year, if that.

It is my understanding that the higher the spread, the better the EV but the worse the ROR (not to mention heat). I don't have any books with the appropriate charts to help me out, but I am trying to find that happy medium.

Tentatively, I was thinking:
TC Units
1 1
2 2
3 4
4-.. 10 ($50 assuming $5 min)

Appreciate your help.

 

[BJgenius007]

Hey All,

I am going to LV in a few weeks on a 3-day trip with a $1500 BR and will be using HiLo at 2 different types of games: 6D H17 DAS LS RSA and DD H17 DAS RSA both with $2/3/5 minimums. I am trying to devise a betting scheme that maximizes EV and keeps trip ROR tolerably low (<10%) with little to no consideration for heat attraction as I only play 1-2x a year, if that.

It is my understanding that the higher the spread, the better the EV but the worse the ROR (not to mention heat). I don't have any books with the appropriate charts to help me out, but I am trying to find that happy medium.

Tentatively, I was thinking:
TC Units
1 1
2 2
3 4
4-.. 10 ($50 assuming $5 min)

Appreciate your help.

You can bet using the Easy Bet system.

1 big unit = 2 x table minimal (for DD)
1 big unit = 4 x table minimal (for 6D/8D)

Bet table minimal when TC is 0 or negative. Bet the same number of big units and TC when TC is positive. For example, if playing 6D on $5 minimal table, 1 big units = $20 so

TC Bet size
Neg $5
0 $5
+1 $20
+2 $40
+3 $60
+4 $80
+5 $100

For double deck, 1 big unit = $10 so

TC Bet size
Neg/0 $5
+1 $10
+2 $20
+3 $30
+4 $40
+5 $50

Also note, when TC are 1.5 and 2.4, both are round to +2.

 

[uchicago]

Thanks for that.

Two things:

1) You think my $1500 BR can sustain $100 bets?? I mean a reasonable scenario is that I split my $100 bet and then double a hand, and then I have $300 out there. And if I lose, there goes 20% of my BR, assuming I wasn't down to begin with. Or do you think my 3-day trip is short enough that I am likely to last?

2) With the games I am playing, I am starting at about a .5% disadvantage before counting. At TC 1, I should be about dead even with the casino. Seems like I should still be betting the minimum at TC 1 so long as I do not have an advantage yet? So don't ramp up the bets until TC 2?

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks for that.

1) You think my $1500 BR can sustain $100 bets??

No. But the first consideration is to bet 2x$50 instead. BUT even that is too rich.

Any max bet much over $20 is too rich... but since you cannot bet "right" - make your max 2x25 and say 10 Hail Marys. zg

 

[BJgenius007]

Thanks for that.

Two things:

1) You think my $1500 BR can sustain $100 bets?? I mean a reasonable scenario is that I split my $100 bet and then double a hand, and then I have $300 out there. And if I lose, there goes 20% of my BR, assuming I wasn't down to begin with. Or do you think my 3-day trip is short enough that I am likely to last?

2) With the games I am playing, I am starting at about a .5% disadvantage before counting. At TC 1, I should be about dead even with the casino. Seems like I should still be betting the minimum at TC 1 so long as I do not have an advantage yet? So don't ramp up the bets until TC 2?

1) A rule of thumb is that you need $10000 for top $100 bet. That means for $1500 bank roll, your top bet should be $15. In specific, you spread $0.75 to $15 at 6D/8D table and spread $1.50 to $15 at DD table. Since there are no such minimal tables exist, you have to risk it if you don't have sufficient bank roll.

2) At TC +1, you have advantage 0.0% if using level 1 counting system and 0.2% advantage if using level 2 counting system. It is better to bump the bet a little bit at TC +1, especially if you are using a level 2 system. You also needs to know the frequency of TC +2 or higher is not so great (maybe 15% on average penetration) for 6D/8D, so the bet size at TC +2 has to be huge (8x table minimal is what I recommend, 5x if you use 60 or more indexes).

 

[uchicago]

1) A rule of thumb is that you need $10000 for top $100 bet. That means for $1500 bank roll, your top bet should be $15. In specific, you spread $0.75 to $15 at 6D/8D table and spread $1.50 to $15 at DD table. Since there are no such minimal tables exist, you have to risk it if you don't have sufficient bank roll.

2) At TC +1, you have advantage 0.0% if using level 1 counting system and 0.2% advantage if using level 2 counting system. It is better to bump the bet a little bit at TC +1, especially if you are using a level 2 system. You also needs to know the frequency of TC +2 or higher is not so great (maybe 15% on average penetration) for 6D/8D, so the bet size at TC +2 has to be huge (8x table minimal is what I recommend, 5x if you use 60 or more indexes).

I'm pretty sure the 100x-max-bet bankroll you speak of is for a lifetime bankroll. Keep in mind my trip is 3 days. This is a $1500 trip bankroll that can be replenished for future trips however many months later one may occur.

 

[paddywhack]

Not sure how long you've played so maybe this is old news.

3 day trip isn't real long and $1500 is a tiny bankroll. Start small, keep your max bets to what you're comfortable losing. If you hit a good run bump them up. If not......

Worst thing is to get there, hit a bad run and be broke in a day.

I'd rather be in the game for longer and hope things turn around.

 

[tthree]

Here is what you are looking for!

You really need to be wonging in and out a lot to consider such a small trip BR. For your stated ROR of 5%, 1 to 12 spread, 6 deck at 27 hands/hr (wonging) 3 hours/day (9 hours total) you need about 130 unit trip BR. For 4.67 hours/day (16 hours total) a trip BR of 170 units is required. For 8.3 hours/day (25 hours total) a trip BR of 205 units is required.

Double deck play all with a 1 to 6 spread a slightly higher requirement for your trip BR is needed to keep a 5% ROR. 3 hours/day (9 hours total) you must have 140 units as your trip BR. 4.67 hours/day (16 hours total) 180 unit trip BR is required. 8.3 hours/day (25 hours total) a 215 unit trip BR is required.