1,2,3,4,1 won't work
golfnut101 said:
Josh
could a person use a modest + progression for cover ? Say 1-2-3-4-1 ? Same idea, only in neutral or slightly pos situations, which would lead into some big bets with a very pos shoe. Obviously some type of cover would be needed if you jumped up to a 6, 8 or 10 unit bet, but, I dont think it would be that difficult.
Problem is you could lose your trip br before you see some ap. Just a thought.
You mentioned you have won alot more than you lost in the past year. Do you keep a log, & if so, what is your unit, hrs played, and, how much would you say your up with this type of system. I like the idea of raising your bet to throw off the pb's, but, the math says it will sky rocket your ror. Some experienced players here frown on it. Lastly, you should read Snyders article on his site about the 'up-down-up' strategy for cover play. Interesting...
best of luck
Thanks, you too, yeah well, that won't work. it's that... it loses to much and wins to little.
think about it, if you lose one win one you are fine with a one unit gain, but if you lose 2 win 1 you break even, if you lose three win one you lose two units, and if you lose four win one, you lose a whopping 9 units, and the cycle is over and you begin again, so it won't work, you have to go all in with a negative progression, in order to get out to the 7th or 8th loss, even with moderate loss, because generally you only see a string of losses of this magnitude once in every few hundred hands, and even more rarely when the count is high neutral or high. I see a four in a row loss pattern at least once, often several times an hour. 1,2,3,4,1 would devestate me financially, as it would anyone who tried it. I would use a pattern more like 1,1,1,4,8,16,18,20
If you don't want to go all out, one way I could recomend would be to vary your bet using the only positive progression that works well in my opinion. 1,2,1,2,1,2 for consecutive wins only.
for example every time you win, stack that one on top, and then if you win that one take the two you won + one off your bet stack making a profit of 3 and dropping your bet back to one continue this cycle, always drop bet to one chip after any loss. you will be amazed how much more quickly your stack will build in the majority of typical card patterns. simplicity my friend... that is the key. some people like + progression pattern 1,2,3,2,3,1, I wouldn't recomend it unless the count is really high, I tend to use positive progressions when the count goes really high true count of +3 and higher the one I use is simple 2,3,4,5,3,4,5,6,4etc, or 4,5,6,7,5,6,7,8,6etc these work with great success, especially the latter. Also, in very high count situations, like +3 through +5 and higher, I use the no bust rule, which is stand on twelve and higher with great success, especially when going head on against the dealer.
also I will not use any negative progression when the true count falls below -1.
between -1 and -2 I use the 1,2,1,2, + progrssion in a low neutral card setting depending on how the cards are breaking. if it dips below that. I am off the table. usually even before minus one, unless the cards are breaking in my favor, that is the only reason I would stay at a table with even that low of a count.
There is really no such thing as a modest negative betting pattern that is why casinos tend to love them. and I would recomend using a negative progression only when the count is high nuetral(true count between+1 and +2 or higher) and if you chicken out your gonna lose, and be prepared to lose 40 units in five minutes, because when you are playing a negative expectation game...it happens. It is what I call the big bust or one step back, your winnings must outpace this inevitable 60 unit loss.
In summary 1,2,1,2,1, is the best + progression, and there is no modest negative progression, you have to go out at least to the 7th preferably 8th loss or not at all.
as for my winnings, yes I log them and yes they consistantly out wiegh my losses, over a period of years.
winnings go in a two step forward one step back pattern, if you are utilizing proper money management.
so if you use these techniques, you should generally get off the table if you have accumulated a win of between 10-30 units.
my advice is if you sit right down at a table and then expierience a 4 loss streak or more wait till the recovery ie you win once, and get off of the table quickly. If you are on a table you can expect a loss like that once every 30-50 hands, so realistically if you hit one within 10 hands you may have found a seat with a bad breaking pattern of cards, so don't risk it, just get off the table while you can. I usually start out with a sequence like 1,1,1,4,8,16,18,20, but if I start losing right off the bat I might go,1,1,1,1,1, and then leave the table. but I always combine this strategy with the neutral positive progression 1,2,1,2
always watch a table for five or ten hands before sitting down, look for a dealer bust ratio of 1 out of every three times, and watch out for a dealer who seems to be mostly 20s and 21s even if he is busting, also is he busting showing a low card or a high card? look for what I call player favorable card breaking patterns which is primarily dealer bust patterns. this is especially important when playing a negative expectation game.
Good luck.
get six decks and some chips,
and deal your self a couple hundred hands using these progressions, before you try them at the casino, cause if you don't do it right you can lose a lot of money fast. I wouldn't recomend trying them with a single or double deck either, cause you don't get enough rounds of play to finish a long losing cycle.
Well I hope this helps
Josh