Non counters please advise

J

Jdesey

Member
#1
#1
I am not a counter. I enjoy BJ very much and have become better as I nailed down basic strategy this year. My biggest issue seems to be bet size. I have tried many variations of pressing. Press 50% of winnings. Press 100% for 3 hands. I am now convinced that this is not working long term. It is great when you hit 5, 6 or 7 in a row.

who is flat betting?? is it working for you?

I believe that flat betting can work if you have 100% basic strategy with no errors.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
You cannot win playing BS with even 100% perfect play. The house still
has an advantage. How much of an advantage will depend on the rules and the number of decks.
Flat betting with perfect BS on a good game will reduce your losses to next to nothing,but you will not be winning.But flat betting is better than any sort of pressing.
 
D

DC15

Member
#3
#3
I am also a non counter and have found parlaying to be the best system to get ahead, playing BS seems to minimize loses but the house still has that small edge, so once you win a hand parlay up straight away and take advantage of your winnings. I did this last night and only started moving forward once I started parlaying 100% of my winnings, before that I was flat betting and going nowhere. I then hit the crpas tables and won $500 in 30mins, I was betting $10 on hard 8,6,4 and also pressing when I won, the dice were hot and I came out in front.

DC
 
Dyepaintball12

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Well I use to play just Basic Strategy, and "my system" worked fairly well.

I would bet $5, and if I won three $5 hands in a row, I would bet $10, then if I won $10 three times in a row I would bet $15, then every two wins I would increase my bet by $5. And every time I lost a hand I would go back to $5 and start over.

I read about it in a book when I got started in Blackjack and thats why I did it and some days I would make $100-$500, some days I would lose $100-$500, and other days I would break even.

I got tired of this so I am now learning to count.

Hopefully that helped.

Also, please dont double ur bet after every loss.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Few years ago, when I only knew about 70% of the basic strategy (had only practiced for an hour!) I had a blast just flat betting the minimum and BS'ing (the other kind) with my fellow ploppies at the table. The fun part to me wasn't the gambling, it was just the "yay" "boo" nature of the game itself, and trying to remember the right plays.

Flat betting has a lot of virtues. It's easy. It has low variance. And if you flat bet a low amount, it's cheap.

But if you're really in it for the gamble, then you can go with a positive system or a negative system. A positive progression of any sort is going to make you lose more most of the time, but sometimes you'll get that BIG win. A negative system is going to make you lose less often, but with the occasional BIG loss.

If, at heart, you're a slot player, go with the positive progression. If you're playing with the rent money play with a negative progression (better yet, go home).

And the final option is just take half of the night's bankroll and bet it on one hand, and see where that leads you. Or as I like to put it "I've got three hours of gambling to do, and only one hour to do it".
 
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dacium

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
I remember when I first saw and played blackjack. I didn't know what basic strategy was. I was relying on nothing but the math I could do in my head to try and figure out what play was the best.

The best I could come up with was that the average card would be valued at about 7, so I based on all my decisions on that. Turns out if you assume any card will be a 7, you pretty much will be playing basic strategy anyway.

We played it for about 10 sessions and won a heap of money. I look back now and I believe we were giving an edge of about 2%... just shows what luck you can have flat betting.
 
T

tedloc

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Fred Renzy

Jdesey said:
I am not a counter. I enjoy BJ very much and have become better as I nailed down basic strategy this year. My biggest issue seems to be bet size. I have tried many variations of pressing. Press 50% of winnings. Press 100% for 3 hands. I am now convinced that this is not working long term. It is great when you hit 5, 6 or 7 in a row.

who is flat betting?? is it working for you?

I believe that flat betting can work if you have 100% basic strategy with no errors.
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I read an article by Fred Renzy about flat betting that I use. He gave this example. A $25 dollar better gets delt 9 vs dealer 4 and does not want to double. He wins the hand, then leaves the $50 out on the next hand. He gets delt 20 but the dealer gets blackjack. He didn't double, when he was a favorite, but turns around and doubles on a blind hand. Renzy says that if you don't count, you should flat bet and after you get your cards, double or split, when you have the advantage. He says, when you feel like betting $100, bet $50, then after you get the cards make the move.
 
R

rogue1

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Walter Thomason

Check out Twenty First Century Blackjack: A New Strategy For A New Millennium by Walter Thomason. If you have questions for him he can be reached at (Dead link: http://www.hitorstand.com)
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
rogue1 said:
Check out Twenty First Century Blackjack: A New Strategy For A New Millennium by Walter Thomason. If you have questions for him he can be reached at (Dead link: http://www.hitorstand.com)
Click to expand...
Walter Thomason posts on Fred Renzey's website? :confused:

A better website to learn about Thomason's progression system is here.

-Sonny-
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
without counting you can improve your game quite a bit with a few composition dependent plays and through going partners on other peoples double downs where they "double for less." these few plays alone don't require any mental gymnastics, can reduce losses, don't increase varriance like progressions can/do and if you're a chatty/"table team player" you can use doubles and splits to make the game more social - which makes the game a lot more fun and makes for a lot of good cover for a counter like me ;)

that's what i would do if i was in your shoes, progressions seem too dangerous for me to even consider them, so i never have. read fred renzey's columns or buy his book. if progressions are your game then take the other peoples' advice on here. betting on whims and hunches, however, can not be advised - ever.
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
DC15 said:
I then hit the crpas tables and won $500 in 30mins, I was betting $10 on hard 8,6,4 and also pressing when I won, the dice were hot and I came out in front.

DC
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That's blind luck, my man. Or as some prefer to call it: positive variance.

I'd call it a day on that play if you won so much on it in one session. It kinda reminds me of the first time I went to Vegas and played roulette. Pretty naive about odds, house edge, etc. at that time. To make a long story short--I was betting 5 numbers at a time, and hit a number about 75% (about 15 of 20) of the spins. Moral of the story: got lucky. After I got home, I learned the odds/edge on roulette and have never played again. How could I top that?

What's that got to do with non-counting and pressing bets? A lot...that's just gambling. If you vary your bets with no connection to the advantage/disadvantage that the remaining cards have, you're just relying on luck. Which isn't half bad if you are abnormally lucky :rolleyes:

good luck
 
D

DC15

Member
#14
#14
Your right I got very lucky on craps, my normal play in craps is win line plus odds, come bet, then take odds with up to 3 numbers working at once. This ls the most advantageous play you can have in craps and get the house advantage below 1%. But i had no time to play that strategy and needed to win quick so I went for it, and the dice were hot, hardways were coming up everywhere and I even rolled a couple my self. But with BS found on this site under the strategy engine that can get the house advantage down to 0.64%, thats good enough for me, take the double downs and splits when the dealer is weak and parlay your winnings, thats how I enjoy playing.

DC
 
halcyon1234

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
As everyone's pointed out, you're playing for fun. Just be aware that the fun will cost you .5% of everything you bet. Though you might end up on the positive side of variance, and yay for you. The longer you play, the less likely you'll be on that Good Side.

BUT, if you're having fun, then you've won. You're paying for entertainment. You'll get free drinks, nice "scenery", possible a good comp or two (free food or show tickets). So it's not all that bad.

Don't be deluded that a system will help you in any way. You'll either win or (more likely) lose money faster, but it will be the same amount (or worse if neg variance hits when you have your Triple Elephant Reversed Cowpoke Final Ringer bet out).
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
halcyon1234 said:
BUT, if you're having fun, then you've won. You're paying for entertainment. You'll get free drinks, nice "scenery", possible a good comp or two (free food or show tickets). So it's not all that bad.
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Great attitude to have...if you're not a professional, and it's money you can afford to pay for entertainment--just enjoy. Winning here and there and with a possible slight edge in the long run is well beyond a majority of the players out there.

good luck & ENJOY!!!
 
S

SPX

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
Sonny said:
Walter Thomason posts on Fred Renzey's website? :confused:

A better website to learn about Thomason's progression system is here.

-Sonny-
Click to expand...

That's awfully mean. For one, the definition of SCAM is one in which the perpetrator is intentionally trying to pull the wool over someone's eyes. There is deceptiveness implied and I assure you that Walter believes in his system.

Furthermore, I still believe that until it's been proven by actually hand dealing "millions of hands' of blackjack, we don't KNOW for sure that hand dealt BJ will obtain the same results as the sims. Maybe real cards really do run a bit more streaky.

Maybe not, for sure, but it's just annoying when people present as fact what is still just presumption. Kind of like evolution.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
I agree. I've never seen a germ. Have you?If it was for some so-called scientists,you'd never have thought about them,let alone be worried about them.
Ever wonder why no one has ever been able to get a piece of moon-rock? Perhaps its because it really was made of cheese?
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
Jdesey said:
I am not a counter. I enjoy BJ very much and have become better as I nailed down basic strategy this year. My biggest issue seems to be bet size. I have tried many variations of pressing. Press 50% of winnings. Press 100% for 3 hands. I am now convinced that this is not working long term. It is great when you hit 5, 6 or 7 in a row.

who is flat betting?? is it working for you?

I believe that flat betting can work if you have 100% basic strategy with no errors.
Click to expand...
While flat-betting can never work, ask yourself what your winning goals are over how much playing, what your bankroll is, and how much you are willing to lose.

It's a lot different if u want to double your bankroll in one night or just break even over 100 hours of playing.
 
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