Nooooooo!

[EdgeCapper]

I wrote a really long post about lifetime win/loss because my friend brought up an interesting topic this morning about the difficulties for a professional gambler to have a total lifetime win. He is firm in his belief that losses incured early on in a professional gamblers career, due to inexperience and ignorance of correct play, offset any edge gained from advantage play and therefore prevent most people from having a long term win.

Had Windows Vista continued running stable on my computer, like it has been without a restart for a week, rather than freezing up just seconds before pressing the submit button, you would now be reading a lengthy, detailed, and interesting(I think) post about my views and experience on the matter. Instead, I will just bring up some points to discuss and hopefully as a team, after about three pages of responses, we can cover everything that my original post had in it. Perfect timing for a crash eh?

Let me have your opinions:
- I know a few people who can say for sure that they have won more than they lost playing cards or betting sports. How many of you can say for sure you are a long term winner?

- How long did it take you all to start betting like a pro rather than your average ploppie? After losing for too long and realizing the game can be beat or did you play professionally from the start?

- Who can say that with all casino games included, you still have an overall win?

- What kind of unusual streaks have any of you seen? How bad was your worst swing. Last night, our casino beat a $3000/hand player for the first time since he started playing earlier this year. He beat us for no less than $10,000 once or twice a week for months and never changed his bet. He lost $90K last night in a shocking victory for the dark side. He's still way up overall, but at least we know now that he is indeed human and not some kind of blackjack superbeing.

- How frustrated would you be if your computer crashed at the exact moment you finished your longest post to date? Would it ruin your day?

 

[zengrifter]

He is firm in his belief that losses incured early on in a professional gamblers career, due to inexperience and ignorance of correct play, offset any edge gained from advantage play and therefore prevent most people from having a long term win.

Most people will be prevented because they will never truly evolve to AP status.

And especially "gamblers" who will never be satisfied making scientifically sized 'safe' betting restrictions. And if they've already lost a fortune gambling like losers they will never make it back..

So I agree with your friend. zg

 

[shadroch]

I believe that someone who plays blackjack fulltime is not a professional gambler.They are no more gambling their money than Harrahs is.
As for the rest,I know of only one sports bettor that is far ahead after years of playing.
For myself,the 1099s I've gotten from casinos have me quite a bit ahead,due to several BIG slot wins,and my records for the last 15 months have me ahead on BJ,but not all that much.Lifetime,I'd guess I'm about even or perhaps $5,000 one way or the other.. But thats over twenty something years.Much of my previous gambling was taking flyers on NFL games or boxing matchs.Prior to 1999,I hadn't gambled in a casino isince a trip to Paradise Island in the early 80s.

 

[bj bob]

For myself,the 1099s I've gotten from casinos have me quite a bit ahead,due to several BIG slot wins,and my records for the last 15 months have me ahead on BJ,but not all that much.Lifetime,I'd guess I'm about even or perhaps $5,000 one way or the other.. But thats over twenty something years.Much of my previous gambling was taking flyers on NFL games or boxing matchs.Prior to 1999,I hadn't gambled in a casino isince a trip to Paradise Island in the early 80s.

That's an interesting overview, Shad. It would seem to me then, that if you didn't spend a fortune on trip expenses over the past twenty years, you sure must have racked up a nice bundle in comps. That, in and of itself, seems like a very nice outcome.

 

[Canceler]

- I know a few people who can say for sure that they have won more than they lost playing cards or betting sports. How many of you can say for sure you are a long term winner?

I've always kept exact records of all my results at the casino. So far I've played 465 sessions of at least 3 or 4 hours each and I'm still ahead, but not by very darn much! In fact, I could easily go negative the next time I play.

- How long did it take you all to start betting like a pro rather than your average ploppie? After losing for too long and realizing the game can be beat or did you play professionally from the start?

I was finally able to count cards at the casino about 3 months after I started playing blackjack. I still don't play like a pro, just recreationally.

- Who can say that with all casino games included, you still have an overall win?

I can. I only play blackjack.

- How frustrated would you be if your computer crashed at the exact moment you finished your longest post to date? Would it ruin your day?

I once spent every spare minute during a four-day Thanksgiving weekend doing a programming project for work. That Sunday night, just as I was putting the finishing touches on it, the file got corrupted. All my work was gone. I had to start over.

 

[ScottH]

- Who can say that with all casino games included, you still have an overall win?

Card counting I am actually a slight lifetime loser, and that will probably never change as I hope to never count again. However, all games included, I am definitely up lifetime counting all casino games.

With card counting's lame 1-2% advantage I have no win to show, but with other better games, I am a clear lifetime winner.

There is a reason why LCHCM and CrapsMaster make fun of card counters.

 

[sagefr0g]

Let me have your opinions:
- I know a few people who can say for sure that they have won more than they lost playing cards or betting sports. How many of you can say for sure you are a long term winner?

never have bet sports but long term winner for blackjack. started with $300 bankroll and ended up with $6000 two years later.

- How long did it take you all to start betting like a pro rather than your average ploppie? After losing for too long and realizing the game can be beat or did you play professionally from the start?

never have played like a professional but the first time i played blackjack was after many months of studying advantage play. it took quite a while (months) before i settled down and started using totally orthodox AP methods.

- Who can say that with all casino games included, you still have an overall win?

before playing blackjack i played slots for about a year. won almost two grand and then lost most of it but was still very slightly ahead. quit playing slots and only played blackjack after that. so yeah luckly i'm overall ahead for the three years that i've been gambling. never gambled on a regular basis before those years.

- What kind of unusual streaks have any of you seen? How bad was your worst swing.

won almost two grand in one night playing slots at an indian joint.
lost almost a grand in one night playing slots on a cruise.
never had a big winning blackjack session.... biggest was around $220
but have had a lot of winning sessions in a row, nearly sixty winning trips in a row.
had one really big losing session of $700 that was proceeded by a few other losing sessions that totaled about $300. so in those sessions i lost 1/7th of my bankroll.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Card counting I am actually a slight lifetime loser, and that will probably never change as I hope to never count again. However, all games included, I am definitely up lifetime counting all casino games.

With card counting's lame 1-2% advantage I have no win to show, but with other better games, I am a clear lifetime winner.

There is a reason why LCHCM and CrapsMaster make fun of card counters.

Yes there is, but I'm not going to say it because it isn't nice.

Counting is the one AP method you can use in nearly any casino that offers blackjack, any time you want. There are other methods that give greater advantage but you can't always be certain you can use them. As a part-timer, I always go to a venue assuming I'm going to be counting only, and if I can't justify a counting game, I don't go. Anything else to be found is a pleasant surprise. A full-timer has more time to scout opportunities for advanced AP but on the other hand can afford not finding one a lot less than someone with a J-O-B. Furthermore there is a much greater chance of getting banned and flyered using the "dirty" techniques of holecarding and forcing dealer errors.

If you really want to give your blackjack career a kick that will last for a long time, I'd recommend shuffle tracking and sequencing (especially sequencing). These are among the more difficult techniques to master but they have the advantage that the pit will rarely have any idea what the hell you are doing. Thus you have longevity and comps. You will not see any masters of these techniques bloviating about their adventures on Internet message boards.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
Let me have your opinions:
- I know a few people who can say for sure that they have won more than they lost playing cards or betting sports. How many of you can say for sure you are a long term winner?

Yes, I am a long term winner.

- How long did it take you all to start betting like a pro rather than your average ploppie? After losing for too long and realizing the game can be beat or did you play professionally from the start?

Before I learned AP, I gambled rarely and for small stakes. Playing something approximating Basic Strategy for $10-$20 stakes. I've never had losses as an unskilled player like I have as an AP, but never had the wins either.

- Who can say that with all casino games included, you still have an overall win?

I can, as I lay little cover and almost always on VP. AP is not a variant on gambling to me, it is something distinct from gambling, which I no longer enjoy.

- What kind of unusual streaks have any of you seen? How bad was your worst swing. Last night, our casino beat a $3000/hand player for the first time since he started playing earlier this year. He beat us for no less than $10,000 once or twice a week for months and never changed his bet. He lost $90K last night in a shocking victory for the dark side. He's still way up overall, but at least we know now that he is indeed human and not some kind of blackjack superbeing.

Oh I've seen it all. How about splitting aces and getting two more aces (in a house where you can't resplit aces) twice in one night? How about losing every single hand in a 6D shoe? Worst swing was losing 300 units over 2 days, winning half of it back over the next 2 days.

- How frustrated would you be if your computer crashed at the exact moment you finished your longest post to date? Would it ruin your day?

No.

 

[ScottH]

- How frustrated would you be if your computer crashed at the exact moment you finished your longest post to date? Would it ruin your day?

I had a similar thing happen, and I lost some great information (most is still in my head). I was cleaning out my inbox at the forums here. I was cutting and pasting the good stuff into an email that I was going to send to myself and supercoolmancool. I just finished copying everything (lots of great tips from several prominant posters here), I was literally just hitting the send button and the power went out. I could never get them back because I deleted them after I pasted them into the email, and the email didn't finish sending before the power went out.

The only plus to the situation was that it happened when I was in the library at school. It was right before class and my teacher happened to be in an elevator on her way to class which started in 10 minutes. I went to class frustrated at my loss of info, only to find a full classroom and no teacher. She was stuck in the elevator! We all had a good laugh and left. It was funny because it was the last day of regular class and she had important things to tell us, but everyone left anyway. It was a good decision because she was stuck in the elevator for almost an hour... haha.

 

[zengrifter]

...as I hope to never count again.

WOW!! zg

 

[EasyRhino]

At heart, I'm not really much of a gambler. So lifetime gambling attempts were probably about... 1 time playing slots, and 3 times playing blackjack. All low stakes. Losses probably between $100 and $200.

And my early attempts at card-counting were blessed with fairly benign luck, so I'm definitely ahead of things. Long term is only a year, but I'm definitely in the black so far.

Question about your whale though, how long of sessions would he usually play, and how fastly did he play? A $10,000 win for somebody betting $3000 a hand is not a big deal at all. Especially if he kept his sessions short.

 

[ScottH]

WOW!! zg

I might have been lieing. I wouldn't want those charities that took my money to have the last laugh! :laugh:

 

[EdgeCapper]

At heart, I'm not really much of a gambler. So lifetime gambling attempts were probably about... 1 time playing slots, and 3 times playing blackjack. All low stakes. Losses probably between $100 and $200.

And my early attempts at card-counting were blessed with fairly benign luck, so I'm definitely ahead of things. Long term is only a year, but I'm definitely in the black so far.

Question about your whale though, how long of sessions would he usually play, and how fastly did he play? A $10,000 win for somebody betting $3000 a hand is not a big deal at all. Especially if he kept his sessions short.

He would stay for 1-6 hours. He had large downward swings and refused to stop until he came back and left with a small win. If he starts with a quick winning streak, he will leave after a short sesion. Avg $30K win on short sessions and when he was chasing all night, he'd leave with smaller wins. I am not sure how long he played when he lost; he usually refuses to give up and will stay for as long as it takes so I am curious to find out how many hours he will fight it out before accepting a loss.

 

[Craps Master]

- What kind of unusual streaks have any of you seen? How bad was your worst swing. Last night, our casino beat a $3000/hand player for the first time since he started playing earlier this year. He beat us for no less than $10,000 once or twice a week for months and never changed his bet. He lost $90K last night in a shocking victory for the dark side. He's still way up overall, but at least we know now that he is indeed human and not some kind of blackjack superbeing.

Does this guy play $3000/hand or 3 x $3000/hand? If the latter, I know where you work.

 

[Craps Master]

Disclaimer: What follows is my professional opinion.

Counting is the one AP method you can use in nearly any casino that offers blackjack, any time you want. There are other methods that give greater advantage but you can't always be certain you can use them. As a part-timer, I always go to a venue assuming I'm going to be counting only, and if I can't justify a counting game, I don't go. Anything else to be found is a pleasant surprise. A full-timer has more time to scout opportunities for advanced AP but on the other hand can afford not finding one a lot less than someone with a J-O-B. Furthermore there is a much greater chance of getting banned and flyered using the "dirty" techniques of holecarding and forcing dealer errors.

LOL. So wrong.

If you really want to give your blackjack career a kick that will last for a long time, I'd recommend shuffle tracking and sequencing (especially sequencing). These are among the more difficult techniques to master but they have the advantage that the pit will rarely have any idea what the hell you are doing. Thus you have longevity and comps. You will not see any masters of these techniques bloviating about their adventures on Internet message boards.

Pretty bad advice.

 

[RJT]

There is a reason why LCHCM and CrapsMaster make fun of card counters.

I'm going to agree with AM on this one. Card Counting is so versitile that you should always be familiar with it as a base for AP. The more advanced techniques in blackjack are all opportunisitic. Be it shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, hole carding, steer card play or any varient of these methods, they all require so specific dealing weakness - with the dealing or shuffling proceduer.
If you intend to play very seriously, i would advise becoming familiar with these techniques and using them whenever you can, but they are not the be all and end all. For most regular players who just want to have an edge counting is still a very useful tool and even for those who want to play for more serious money you should never forget counting.
A good example of this is a venue i know of that offers nearly 90% on its 6D game (varying between 75-90% depending on the dealer and often massively shuffle to shuffle) that will happily see me playing a 1-25 bet spread and table hopping. This is a fantastic opportunity. Now i can also easily track the shuffles in this venue, with provide very powerful packet information and i do that any time a good opportunity arrises, but i would never laugh off the counting game when it also offers a very sweet fruit for the picking.
Anyway, back to the topic:

1) I can say for sure that i'm a lifetime winner being as i didn't gamble before i started advantage playing and i'm currently and a lifetime high for winnings.

2) I jumped in too aggressively at the start having trained myself to shuffle track and found that it wasn't nearly as easy live and that my basics needed work. Went back to the drawing boards after 3 months of fairly sloppy attempting, trained for another 6 months just focusing on the basics of counting and getting that to the highest possible standard that i could then went back out to play just a counting game. Was very successful and within 2 months of starting to play again was shuffle tracking with a great degree of success. Since then i've had my ups and downs but they've been due to varience rather than errors.

3) I will place the occasional roulette bet if i feel that i need to show some interest in other games, so i guess i'm not a lifetime winner at that as i don't play with an advantage (i seem to remember Craps Master alluding to something along the line of being an APing rouletter player and i can think of a couple of possiblities for how this is done so i'm going to look into a couple of resources and see what i can come up with). Overall however i'm way ahead.

4) Recently i've been table hopping and watched a dealer beat the entire table every round for 3 shoes. From what i remember i counted 15 dealer blackjacks. It was a slaughter. Dropped a packet during those 3 shoes, but managed to make most of it back with some nice -ve NRS opportunities later on in the evening.

5) Has happened several times - very annoying.

RJT.

 

[RJT]

OK CM would you say that it is worth taking a look at Lawerence Scott's material or do the 2 other resources that you've previously listed cover everything in a more accurate fashion?

RJT.

 

[ChefJJ]

Card counting I am actually a slight lifetime loser, and that will probably never change as I hope to never count again.

You still looking to roll to Vegas though as a pro...give it a shot?

good luck

 

[EasyRhino]

He had large downward swings and refused to stop until he came back and left with a small win.

So it sounds like he was, purposely or not, using a sort of "money management" system that would seem to encourage those results you saw, frequent small (well, relatively small) wins, followed by big losses.

I think the phrase is "eats like a bird, shits like a moose".