Normal Variance?

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CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I'm not a counter and doubt I will ever. Played for a few years and just recently cleaned up my BS play to get it more on target. Last three trips playing a 8D game at $10-15 they've beaten the snot out of me.

Maybe it's not much for some here, but the last time I got in about 4 hours at the tables and lost about $250. I go down and up rarely getting more than $50 ahead and then hit some bad streaks where I lose most of 10-15 hands.

Not being an AP I know I will lose in the long run, but just want to minimize my losses. Can't keep playing if I'm going to lose $150-$250 a trip.

Does this seem like normal variance or am I just an unlucky SOB? If I get $250 losing streaks, how come there's no $250 winning streaks ... or at least a lot closer to even!

Casey
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
If you are not counting,why are you not flat-betting?You say you bet $10-15,but are you sometimes pressing your bets higher?Most people seem to bet higher after three or our losses,figuring they are due for a win.I know I did,nd am still very tempted to.
Otherwise,perhaps your BS is not as good as you think it is. Are you using the right BS for the game you are playing?Splitting or DD incorrectly twice an hour can really add up over a ten hour session.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
That sounds about right. For instance, my fastest streak with the smallest bets was winning $300 in two six-deck shoes betting only $10 (so, like, 20 minutes).

Four hours is a pretty serious session at one table. I hope you're milking it for all the comps you can. Max Rubin's comp city is a fun read, and he suggests methods of slowing down play to reduce losses, like taking bathroom breaks, playing at crowded tables, and spilling drinks. :)
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
CaseyCat said:
Does this seem like normal variance or am I just an unlucky SOB?
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I'd say you're a fairly lucky SOB! With an average bet of $15 and playing 100 hands per hour you should expect to be somewhere between -$350 and +$330 per hour most of the time. After four hours of playing (one session) you should expect to be between -$700 and +$650 most of the time. A small swing of $250 is very normal.

Here's a great article that will teach you how to estimate your expected losses:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Blackjack_Basic_Strategy_Betting_And_Risk.htm

CaseyCat said:
If I get $250 losing streaks, how come there's no $250 winning streaks ... or at least a lot closer to even!
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Just hang in there, you'll get the big winning streaks too. :)

-Sonny-
 
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C

CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
shadroch said:
If you are not counting,why are you not flat-betting?You say you bet $10-15,but are you sometimes pressing your bets higher?Most people seem to bet higher after three or our losses,figuring they are due for a win.I know I did,nd am still very tempted to.
Otherwise,perhaps your BS is not as good as you think it is. Are you using the right BS for the game you are playing?Splitting or DD incorrectly twice an hour can really add up over a ten hour session.
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Not pressing my bet or using any sort of crazy progression, though it is tempting when you're behind and the table seems hot. I flat bet the $10 table if there are any, but at 8:00PM they go to $15 min.

Pretty sure my BS is good .. use practice games well and carry a card for reference ... though I hit a 12 vs a dealer 2, busted, and the dealer said "you should throw that book away". Right.
 
C

CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Thanks for all the info. Guess I better reasses my bankroll if 2SD means a swing of $417 win to $549 loss in 4 hrs play @ $15!

I usually give them my player's card and sometimes try to streach it out to max comps. I like to leave a table for a long break and then come back for a hand or two then quit. I'm in now for a couple of $15.99 buffets with more left. Never tried spilling drinks ... does that piss off the real ploppy's? :)

The worst is my wife plays those %$%&% slots, so I feel like I have to make up what she will lose ... though time before last I was about busted and she came over to the table with $200 she won! She gave it back since!

Casey
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Just be sure the BS you use is for the game you play.Using S17 BS on a H17 ntable will cost you a little,but that little adds up in the long run.
Sonnys numbers may be a bit off as far as you are concerned because its pretty hard to play 100 hands an hour unless you play heads up against a dealer.
A BS player should be playing at a full table,and taking several bathroom/smoke breaks an hour.If you slow play your way to 45-50 hands an hour,you will already have cut Sonnys projected numbers in half.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
CaseyCat said:
The worst is my wife plays those %$%&% slots
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Well, unless your wife is playing the tiniest of penny slots, sounds like you're playing a game that will lose you money slowly, and she's playing one what will lose you money quickly.

Think of it as a race :)
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
True enough,but she'll out-comp him even if shes playing pennies.
Theres a story I read in a BJ book about the author meeting a guy on a plane. They start talking gambling and the guy says he always stays at MegaResort X,and they comp him to everything.Author,who knows the casino is quite dubious the guy gets that at such a low level of play,until the man mentions how his wife amuses herself a few hours a day on the $1 slots while he gambles.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
It is simply a rollercoaster

It looks so simple. Say the house has a .5% edge and the amount of money and hands you play per hour, you should lose playing basic strategy $3.00 per hour.
You never do, it is closer to you win $300 in one hour and lose $306 in another and now you are averaging your $3.00 loss. The short term will show a graph jumping all over the place and the long term will show a line going down very slowly. When you catch a few of those negative hours in a row it can be difficult.

Many casinos today do not comp $10 players but at those that do, even with low comps for blackjack players, you should be about break even with the house when you consider the value of the comps.

ihate17
 
C

CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
EasyRhino said:
Well, unless your wife is playing the tiniest of penny slots, sounds like you're playing a game that will lose you money slowly, and she's playing one what will lose you money quickly.

Think of it as a race :)
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Yes, and she has the crazy idea that the slots aren't random ... ie: she thinks you go down faster once the credits are below a certain point. Have tried to convivce her to learn better BJ ...... then maybe one of will be at the right end of the varience most times. Of course it might just double the loss on a downswing.

Yea, a race to the poor house! :)
 
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CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
ihate17 said:
It looks so simple. Say the house has a .5% edge and the amount of money and hands you play per hour, you should lose playing basic strategy $3.00 per hour.
You never do, it is closer to you win $300 in one hour and lose $306 in another and now you are averaging your $3.00 loss. The short term will show a graph jumping all over the place and the long term will show a line going down very slowly. When you catch a few of those negative hours in a row it can be difficult.

Many casinos today do not comp $10 players but at those that do, even with low comps for blackjack players, you should be about break even with the house when you consider the value of the comps.

ihate17
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Variance 10+ times up or down the long term expectation is'nt what I expected. It drives me nuts! Thought I'd be up/down maybe $25-$30 after 4 hours of flat betting $15! Maybe will be less bothersome now that I understand.

Don't know how you guys who count stand it with even greater varience sometimes losing for long periods. That's got to be the hardest part of playing as a pro ..... the unpredictability even when you're playing is perfect.
 
C

CaseyCat

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
EasyRhino said:
And remember, if she learned BJ, and at least one of you learned to count, then you'd have the beginnings of a pretty awesome team.
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Hmmmm, good idea!
Would we have to pretend not to know each other to avoid heat? How about her at first watching me and counting?
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
No no no, used the married-ness to the max. You can either be the adoring couple and pass each other signals, or squabble and argue the whole time.

Imagine if your bets actually diverged with the count, and you took turns betting big in higher counts, I bet that would confuse the casino for a while.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
Variance is the downfall of most novice counters

CaseyCat said:
Variance 10+ times up or down the long term expectation is'nt what I expected. It drives me nuts! Thought I'd be up/down maybe $25-$30 after 4 hours of flat betting $15! Maybe will be less bothersome now that I understand.

Don't know how you guys who count stand it with even greater varience sometimes losing for long periods. That's got to be the hardest part of playing as a pro ..... the unpredictability even when you're playing is perfect.
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There are many other reasons that most people who learn a counting system fail but the huge variance of the game is a big one. It can effectively wipe out your bankroll and it can compeletely change your midset to where you are no longer effectively sizing your bets. That siad, the variance in blackjack is huge but is not the variance of a slot machine even much bigger.
It has to be because on a slot where the house might have a 6% edge (or higher) on one lucky spin you might get a jackpot that pays 1,000 to 1 and yet you are playing a game with a big house edge. In blackjack the only jackpot in regular rules pays you a paltry 1.5 to 1 for a natural and you are playing a game with only a .5% edge. Based on this it would be very logical to assume that the ups and downs, the variance of blackjack would be very smooth. Well it is all prospective in my opinion. Blackjack is a high variance game but it is an extremely low variance game when compared to slots.

Yes, for the counter the variance is that much greater than for the flat bettor. If one can not handle it, one can not succeed.

ihate17
 
X

xfiles

Active Member
#18
#18
One thing that math can't predict is what type of player you are . If your like me you won't quit until your either broke or win a ton of money . The last 4 times I played I left a loser . I also had my chance each time to walk away up $200 on a $400 bankroll.:rolleyes:
 
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EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
Blackjack variance may seem larger because of bet sizing.

One hand of headsup blackjack takes about as much time as one spin of a nickel slot. the nickel slot might literally be a nickel, while the BJ bet is at least $5.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
EasyRhino said:
Blackjack variance may seem larger because of bet sizing.

One hand of headsup blackjack takes about as much time as one spin of a nickel slot. the nickel slot might literally be a nickel, while the BJ bet is at least $5.
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One spin on a nickle slot can be 90 nickles or more.
The penny Star Wars machines take a max bet of $3.00,and you can get 10-15 spins a minute.
 
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