Off the top advantage

M

Mochajack

Member
#1
#1
Of .16 percent?
It's 6 decks with the one2six machine with full early surrender including the ace. The max bet is 100dollars per square and there are seven seats, it opens at one pm daily and is fairly busy and fairly slow players until its closes at one am. Is this a worthwhile game?
I havent been back but i bet i could get a private table for a day, there's lots of empties, should i just max bet times 7 seats first hand, or start small and wait for a plus count to start betting big? What's the hourly rate and standard probably? I have CVCX but i cant get a sim to work with that shallow pen parameter.
There are other games to play but i keep thinking this maybe could be beat.
There is no heat as this casino and i honestly think i could play a full day a month for maybe a half a dozen times or so before they get wise, perhaps even a couple more. It's also an hour and a half drive from my house.
Any thoughts? And also three hands dealt before thrown in the shuffler.
I think that if 2 min bets of five dollars for the first hand, then an optimal bet spread for any positive count (let's say a 100k bank, why not,) I figure this could beat beat for 100bucks an hour, imo.
Any thoughts?
 
B

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
muppet said:
with a 100k bank, you should fly to great games.

the game you described is terrible
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I would hardly call a game with a player advantage off the top TERRIBLE.

CSM makes it less than optimum yes, but flat betting a large amount would yield a small profit with no counting involved at all! And lets not forget comps!

I don't see how any game with an off the top advantage can be TERRIBLE, even if it is CSM.
 
M

Mochajack

Member
#5
#5
Yeah i should fly to great games and i do, but it's just so close i figure if i can make two thousand off it a month, why not?

Ive read youre thread on your CSM situation and i agree with whats people have posted, i think that the difference is the off the top advantage.

on the first hand with .16 % advantage well at 7 big bets of 100 ( the table max ) i figure thats just over a dollar profit per hand and times lets say 75 hands an hour that's 75 dollars profit per hour. Of course variance will be gigantic here but that's what a large bankroll is for.
And then what about if the count goes up that hand which it will 50 percent of the time? If say, you get a TC of 1 one time in five and at TC of 2 one time in ten (just wild estimates but w/e) then then that's fifteen hands of a .8 % percent advantage time 700 bucks which is 84 bucks an hour plus seven hands an hour of TC 2 which would be 1.4 percent adv which is 70 per hour so for around a total profit of 180 an hour. Even if im wrong by half that's still almost a hundred a hour. It just seems worth investigating to me.
I could be wrong, i could be way off base here.
Your thoughts?
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Mochajack said:
And then what about if the count goes up that hand which it will 50 percent of the time? If say, you get a TC of 1 one time in five and at TC of 2 one time in ten (just wild estimates but w/e) then then that's fifteen hands of a .8 % percent advantage time 700 bucks which is 84 bucks an hour plus seven hands an hour of TC 2 which would be 1.4 percent adv which is 70 per hour so for around a total profit of 180 an hour. Even if im wrong by half that's still almost a hundred a hour. It just seems worth investigating to me.
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Perhaps I am misunderstanding here, but wouldn't the count also drop an equal number of times that it increases? So is that 0.16% advantage you cited averaged over the times it drops AND increases in which case it's still that original $75 per hour?
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
If you have the bankroll & the desire to do this, then GO FOR IT! After all, you WILL be playing with the best of it; although it will take YEARS, and NOT months before you'll even START to hit the long run, where you'll actually begin to realize the correct expectation.

This is what the people who've responded to your post are trying to say:
1)You have a money tree in your back yard.
2)There's another money tree in Vegas, 2000 miles away from you.
3) The tree in your back yard has pennies on it.
4) The tree that's 2000 miles away grows hundred dollar bills.
5) Whichever tree you go to, you're going to get money.

The ultimate decision is yours.
 
M

Mochajack

Member
#8
#8
hey thanks for the replies :)

The consensus is yeah, just go to vegas for a way better game, why waste my time on an inferior game.
It's true there many great games in Vegas but i dont want to burn it out and every day spent away helps.

As for the first replier yes the count will go down as many times as it goes up but when it does that illl min bet until the cards are shuffled one or two hands later.

As for the long run yeah i do have it at aroung 600 hours or so for the postive expectation to equal one standard deviation ( again my guessimate) at two days a month at ten hour sessions that would be over two years.
That's a quite long time but i mean that's what a bankroll is for and it's just so close a place and there's money to be made.

Thanks for the replies and with the expected swings i think ill wait unitl i have a crack at it.
 
muppet

muppet

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
if you are worried about wearing out your welcome in vegas, fly somewhere else! anywhere!

with that type of bank, it's most certainly not worth your time. but more importantly, it's not worth the variance. there's much better investment opportunities out there than to play with a .16% player edge

what does kelly betting applied to blackjack say? someone correct me if i'm wrong, but your big bet should be a little less than x% of your bankroll, where x% is your player advantage?

.16% of 100k = 160

so with 100k you 'should' bet around $130-$140 when you have that .16% adv.
:cry::whip:
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
If you bet the table max of $100 you have a long term expectation of just SIXTEEN CENTS ($.16) (16¢) per spot.

That is almost hilarious.

Out of curiosity … where is this CSM game?
 
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B

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
FLASH1296 said:
If you bet the table max of $100 you have a long term expectation of just SIXTEEN CENTS ($.16) (16¢) per spot.

That is almost hilarious.

Out of curiosity … where is this CSM game?
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Yeah that's pretty funny FLASH, especially if you tried the same thing in America you'd lose between 30 and 60 cents per round per spot.
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
FLASH1296 said:
If you bet the table max of $100 you have a long term expectation of just SIXTEEN CENTS ($.16) (16¢) per spot.

That is almost hilarious.

Out of curiosity … where is this CSM game?
Click to expand...

Wait a minute!
$.16 per spot times 7 spots = $1.12 per round times 60 rounds per hour (maybe more with CSM) = $67.20 per hour. Not absolutely horrible. As a matter of fact, pretty close to what I am making. :confused: Of course as previously stated you are going to need a huge BR to fight off the large variance to get there.
 
B

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
kewljason said:
Wait a minute!
$.16 per spot times 7 spots = $1.12 per round times 60 rounds per hour (maybe more with CSM) = $67.20 per hour. Not absolutely horrible. As a matter of fact, pretty close to what I am making. :confused: Of course as previously stated you are going to need a huge BR to fight off the large variance to get there.
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How dare you get in the way of FLASH's efforts to be condescending?
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Blue Efficacy said:
How dare you get in the way of FLASH's efforts to be condescending?
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Maybe he wasn't being so condescending, but rather just steering the masses away while he nonchalantly asks "where is this game?" :rolleyes: He can be a sly one that Flash!
 
M

Mochajack

Member
#16
#16
It's one table only at a dust joint and I dont think i anyone could make any serious long term money because the swings would hurt the casino too; and you'd figure they would notice their game is beatable by flat betting but, hey, you never know.

And yes, it on an Indian casino in good old US of A :)
 
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