Planning my first trip

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williams22

Member
#1
#1
I was wondering if someone could run these settings through CVCX since I don't have the program. I am going to be playing a game in Montreal with 8 deck, 17S, DAS, double on anything, 85% pen. I am going to be using a $15 unit and doing a 1-5 spread. What is the expected value of return on this game and what is a rough estimate of an appropriate bankroll for this?

To give some background, I am new to counting. I can count Hi-Lo in a casino with no issues and I know BS cold plus most indices. I have never actually put it to use yet though this will be my first attempt. Please help me plan ahead to make it as successful as possible.

Thanks.
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
williams22 said:
Please help me plan ahead to make it as successful as possible.
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This is entirely my personal advice, so take it with a grain of salt.

Most new counters do things in the opposite order that is best (I did it too). Usually, after learning basic strategy and how to count, people immediately work on strategy modifications, cover, bet spread, Wonging in, then Wonging out.

I suggest people do things in pretty much the reverse order for shoe games.

(1) Wonging out. Flat bet and leave the table whenever the count goes "too low". Start at -2, then -1, and eventually work up to +1.
(2) Wonging in. Again, keep flat betting, but backcount and jump in when the count is favorable (usually +1 or +2).
(3) Add a bet spread now, 1-2 at first, and work your way up to 1-8.
(4) Use strategy modifications. Take insurance at +3 or above at first, then work on hard hands next (h9, h12, h15, 16), then pair splitting.
(5) Use cover when absolutely necessary.

Wonging is the easiest way to increase your EV without increasing your variance. Bet spreading will increase your EV and increase your variance. Strategy modifications will only slightly increase your EV. Cover will actually take away from your EV but extend your lifetime.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
If just starting out, I'd actually recommend wonging IN as an even higher priority. The less time spent playing, the better. Less probability of messing something up.

And 1-5 is a money loser in a shoe game unless you are also avoiding all negative counts.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Move Around and Bet Around

Wong in as much as you feel comfortable. One can wong in if positive, TC1 or TC2 depending on how much standing around you feel comfortable doing.

Wong out as much as you feel comfortable. Anything from negative thru -2TC is fine. If other tables are readily available leave sooner then -2TC.

A modest spread is fine if you follow the above.
 
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cardcounter0

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
After your first trip, please post and let us know how many times you lost the count, and if you were actually able to keep the count thru an entire shoe at least once.
:laugh:
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
williams22 said:
What is the expected value of return on this game and what is a rough estimate of an appropriate bankroll for this?
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The optimal bet spread is:

<1 = $15
+1 = $30
>1 = $75

That will earn $12.26 per hour. With a $10,000 bankroll you have a 21% RoR and a N0 of 104,708 hands. With $20,000 you would have about a 4.5% RoR.

If you backcount and only play at +1 or higher, you can still use a 1-5 spread ($35-$200) and earn $35.53 per hour with a 5% RoR on a $10,000 bankroll. Your N0 is now only 18,874 hands. Big difference, huh? :)

-Sonny-
 
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SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
williams22 said:
I am going to be playing a game in Montreal with 8 deck, 17S, DAS, double on anything, 85% pen. I am going to be using a $15 unit and doing a 1-5 spread. What is the expected value of return on this game and what is a rough estimate of an appropriate bankroll for this?
Thanks.
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I understand that you are new but I am already concerned for your game as the casino you mentioned is H17 and not S17 and there is no chance you will find 85% pen. Expect more like 70%. How good is your deck estimation?
 
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williams22

Member
#8
#8
I guess I will just try wong in and out as much as I can given the playing conditions which I won't know until I get there. If I wong out at any TC <-2 and only sit down out tables when the count is +2 or greater that should be a good start I would think. Then I'll use a 1-4 spread as the counts increase. While I realize this isn't ideal, I don't have a big enough BR for it be ideal. I'm just look to spend a few days in Montreal and make some money while there, anything positive is good enough for me at this point. Any advice on how to get comps while there? I will be playing for about 5 straight days.
 
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williams22

Member
#10
#10
Alright time to be realistic with myself. For this trip I have a BR of $2k. I think the lowest minimum table I will be able to find is $15. I will be counting hi-lo. Can someone suggest what spread I should use and what I should bet at each count? I am going to wong out as much as possible at negative counts to help increase my EV some. I realize I don't have the amount of BR needed to play this ideally but I just want to be able to have a positive EV and maybe catch some good variance to be up when I leave. What should I do? I know I can count hi-lo no problem, it's just the betting that I'm worried about.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
williams22 said:
Alright time to be realistic with myself. For this trip I have a BR of $2k. I think the lowest minimum table I will be able to find is $15. I will be counting hi-lo. Can someone suggest what spread I should use and what I should bet at each count? I am going to wong out as much as possible at negative counts to help increase my EV some. I realize I don't have the amount of BR needed to play this ideally but I just want to be able to have a positive EV and maybe catch some good variance to be up when I leave. What should I do? I know I can count hi-lo no problem, it's just the betting that I'm worried about.
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for about 5% of that trip bankroll you can answer all those questions and more. eventually ending up with a priceless education about blackjack.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/blackjack/software.html
 
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williams22

Member
#12
#12
No thanks...I don't have weekly access to a casino I can only gamble once every month or two. I'm just looking for some advice on how to make this trip successful.
 
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BJinNJ

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
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williams22

Member
#14
#14
BJinNJ said:
Is that $2K your lifetime BR, or just a trip BR.
Will you be able to add to that, or replace it, if lost?

How much you can bet now depends on how much
TOTAL money you can devote to BJ over time.

I think http://www.bj21.com has an article on BR and betting.
Here's one: http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/dynamiccareerbankrollmanagement.shtml
Several books also discuss this, including BJ Attack, and others.

BJinNJ :cool:
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$2k is my trip bankroll. it won't kill me if I lose it. What should me bettings increments be?
 
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BJinNJ

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Try this...

<+2 $5
+2 $10
+3 $25
>+3 $60
This does NOT yield a very positive win rate, about $3.60/hr

If you backcount until the count = +2 you increase your win rate to
$11.75/hr and your spread should be

<+2 $0
+2 $20
+3 $40
+4 $55
+5 $75
>+5 $95

It would be easier to remember, and to parlay

<+2 $0
+2 $20
+3 $40
+4 $60
+5 $80
>+5 100

Based on 4 hours of play at 100 hands/hr. Spread 1-10.

GL

BJinNJ :cool:
 
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