Ploppies, Ploppies Everywhere
- Thread starter msshay
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It's probably a worse bet for the non-counter. The insurance bet would cost a non-counter more at a higher bet. But when a counter has a high bet out, they are either at or close to the index for taking insurance. And when a counter takes even money no where near the index, they would usually have a minimum bet out. Also, more blackjacks occur at higher counts. I'm not 100 percent sure on this, but it's the way I have thought about it when I read that always taking ieven money doesnt cost much.
You are correct on this Scott. There is a direct corelation to "even money" and "insurance" decisions compared to the TC or to +3 with KO. We take those side bets when it is most likely that the dealer does have a face underneath the Ace.....i.e., we take the bets at high counts which is when we have the most money out in the circle. It definitely makes sense to take Even Money and Insurance in these cases.
When the count is low, you will have the least money bet. If you take even money and the dealer doesn't have the Natural, then you are only forfeiting 1/3 of the potential win (i.e. 1:1 instead of 1.5:1). If the dealer does not have the Natural, you've still won your original bet versus losing the entire win profit with a push. With a $10 bet, you are guaranteeing a $10 profit versus a chance of an additional $5. Without even money, you are actually gambling a $15 profit against a zero profit with a push. Of course, the odds are in your favor that he does NOT have the BJ with a low count, so that's why we've been taught not to take the bet. I've always wondered if that was sage advice.
Now, if you don't have a BJ and the dealer is showing an Ace with a low count, I wouldn't advise taking insurance. You are guaranteed NOTHING in that case and the odds are with the dealer. He probably doesn't have the BJ in the first place so you would lose the Insurance side bet and would still be holding a hand that you would likely have to draw to in order to beat the Ace the dealer has. Not a good bet.
When the count is low, you will have the least money bet. If you take even money and the dealer doesn't have the Natural, then you are only forfeiting 1/3 of the potential win (i.e. 1:1 instead of 1.5:1). If the dealer does not have the Natural, you've still won your original bet versus losing the entire win profit with a push. With a $10 bet, you are guaranteeing a $10 profit versus a chance of an additional $5. Without even money, you are actually gambling a $15 profit against a zero profit with a push. Of course, the odds are in your favor that he does NOT have the BJ with a low count, so that's why we've been taught not to take the bet. I've always wondered if that was sage advice.
Now, if you don't have a BJ and the dealer is showing an Ace with a low count, I wouldn't advise taking insurance. You are guaranteed NOTHING in that case and the odds are with the dealer. He probably doesn't have the BJ in the first place so you would lose the Insurance side bet and would still be holding a hand that you would likely have to draw to in order to beat the Ace the dealer has. Not a good bet.
Ploppies thought I was a genius today.
Dealer shows 8, I get two 9's. I split them at $15 a piece and the table gets quiet. First nine takes a 2 and someone says "oh no" and I double it and get something crappy like a 4 or 5. Second 9 takes an 8. Dealer flips over a loser and takes a 10 to bust and everyone thought I was the smartest man alive.
Same table, much later I split a pair of 3's and the first one gets an 8 and I double that one, same situation where neither turns out great but the dealer busts. Again I'm a genius. Within about 10 minutes of that I draw 6 cards to a 21, but it was BS and everyone thinks I'm a genius for that too.
Doubling a soft 18 against a 6 in a good count, three people gasped!
It's amazing how easy it is to impress them. But they still kept getting on me about how I was "throwing money away" by not taking the Lucky Ladies side bet. Once I got two Queen of Hearts which would've paid 125-to-1 and they all bring it up again. They keep telling me that with all the 20's I've hit I should be playing them, and I tell them that they're all welcome to jump in and play my side bet...but none do.
First today, a ploppy got scared of splitting 8's because he only had one more bet left and he was debating spending his last possible bet splitting 8's. I offer to pick it up for him and he gets really offended and puts his own money out. He made it, and gave me a look like I was an asshole for suggesting it.
Dealer shows 8, I get two 9's. I split them at $15 a piece and the table gets quiet. First nine takes a 2 and someone says "oh no" and I double it and get something crappy like a 4 or 5. Second 9 takes an 8. Dealer flips over a loser and takes a 10 to bust and everyone thought I was the smartest man alive.
Same table, much later I split a pair of 3's and the first one gets an 8 and I double that one, same situation where neither turns out great but the dealer busts. Again I'm a genius. Within about 10 minutes of that I draw 6 cards to a 21, but it was BS and everyone thinks I'm a genius for that too.
Doubling a soft 18 against a 6 in a good count, three people gasped!
It's amazing how easy it is to impress them. But they still kept getting on me about how I was "throwing money away" by not taking the Lucky Ladies side bet. Once I got two Queen of Hearts which would've paid 125-to-1 and they all bring it up again. They keep telling me that with all the 20's I've hit I should be playing them, and I tell them that they're all welcome to jump in and play my side bet...but none do.
First today, a ploppy got scared of splitting 8's because he only had one more bet left and he was debating spending his last possible bet splitting 8's. I offer to pick it up for him and he gets really offended and puts his own money out. He made it, and gave me a look like I was an asshole for suggesting it.
I can't remember what the dealer had, but the split was a good idea. I was mostly doing it because the kid had taken at least 20 seconds (which seems like a while in silence at the table) trying to decide whether or not to split them since he only had one more bet left. He had been doing terrible since he sat down, just barely staying alive, so I was trying to be nice. I'm amazed at how pissed he got over it, I didn't know that some people might take it as an insult.
I play small enough stakes that I won't worry about it, like I said, I split a pair and made 2 $15 bets, then doubled on and the table was on edge. I'm not knocking them, it's real money to me too, but they were more nervous than me.
Best part was one guy CONSTANTLY going on about how the dealer doesn't always have a face card under there. "I'm tellin ya, they don't, they don't always got it. Sometimes they don't got it" and every time the dealer didn't have a face card he would point out his premonitions to everyone. Turns out he was right a decent amount of the time. I think he was trying to sway the table to his preachings and steal my thunder.
Best part was one guy CONSTANTLY going on about how the dealer doesn't always have a face card under there. "I'm tellin ya, they don't, they don't always got it. Sometimes they don't got it" and every time the dealer didn't have a face card he would point out his premonitions to everyone. Turns out he was right a decent amount of the time. I think he was trying to sway the table to his preachings and steal my thunder.
I find the opposite. At the Vegas Club or Terribles,I will become the go to guy at the table,the person everyone looks to for advice.PB sees me,notices my betting pattern and decides I'm no threat.After an hour or so or 1-3 spreads,I ratch it up a notch for a half hour and he never even notices.The difference is I'm talking betting 5-15,and jumping to 5-50. You're betting on a different level.
sometimes your the guy the ploppies call an idiot
For every time they think you are a genius, there will be about an equal amount of times they think you are an idiot and sometimes that is a very good thing.
I am playing very recently with one of my favorite dealers (he tends to cut slightly less than 1 deck) and there are two ladies at the table. After about 1.5 decks have been dealt I get a 12 vs dealer 2 with a count that is positive but not quite up to the stay indice. I hit and get a 2, dealer turns a 9 for 11 and then pulls a 10. Suddenly the two ladies are leaving the table and probably saying a few choice words about me in their language of choice. The count has risen some more and my bets have gone up nicely and I win the next 6 hands in a row and those two ladies walk by the table and stop. Not knowing their language, but looking straight at me and surely talking about me as I split 2,2 vs dealer 7 with a near max bet, get two double downs and win both hands, I am sure whatever they said meant lucky idiot.
As the shoe progressed the count went up to max bet range where my win streak ended but I still won a little more than half my hands, got two blackjacks and a winning double down, till the count went down. Playing with no cover and knowing I was leaving soon, the dealer's remark about my great timing (knowing when to raise and lower my bets) convinced me to play out the shoe and be gone.
So, I was not the ploppies hero. I was the idiot that the ploppies knew would ruin the game for them and that there was no justice in their ploppy world because I was winning.
For full honesty, there have been times where the situation has been identical but the casino kicked my butt during a big count and the ploppy that I chased away by just playing basic strategy had everything confirmed about my idiocy as my chips went to the tray.
ihate17
For every time they think you are a genius, there will be about an equal amount of times they think you are an idiot and sometimes that is a very good thing.
I am playing very recently with one of my favorite dealers (he tends to cut slightly less than 1 deck) and there are two ladies at the table. After about 1.5 decks have been dealt I get a 12 vs dealer 2 with a count that is positive but not quite up to the stay indice. I hit and get a 2, dealer turns a 9 for 11 and then pulls a 10. Suddenly the two ladies are leaving the table and probably saying a few choice words about me in their language of choice. The count has risen some more and my bets have gone up nicely and I win the next 6 hands in a row and those two ladies walk by the table and stop. Not knowing their language, but looking straight at me and surely talking about me as I split 2,2 vs dealer 7 with a near max bet, get two double downs and win both hands, I am sure whatever they said meant lucky idiot.
As the shoe progressed the count went up to max bet range where my win streak ended but I still won a little more than half my hands, got two blackjacks and a winning double down, till the count went down. Playing with no cover and knowing I was leaving soon, the dealer's remark about my great timing (knowing when to raise and lower my bets) convinced me to play out the shoe and be gone.
So, I was not the ploppies hero. I was the idiot that the ploppies knew would ruin the game for them and that there was no justice in their ploppy world because I was winning.
For full honesty, there have been times where the situation has been identical but the casino kicked my butt during a big count and the ploppy that I chased away by just playing basic strategy had everything confirmed about my idiocy as my chips went to the tray.
ihate17