POLL: What would your next bet be?
- Thread starter 21forme
- Start date
You are spreading $50-$500 (1-10) in a shoe game, which certainly isn't excesssive and probably playing all or at least most hands. (Where are you going to wong to in a small joint) Your profit margin is fairly slim in this situation anyway and now you are going to add in the cost of cover?? A shoe ending in the max bet isn't that uncommon of an accurance. It's going to happen again soon, whether later this trip, next trip or what not. If you can't go back to your small 1 unit wager each time, you are effectively reducing your bet spread, which again was only 1-10 in a probably play all shoe game anyway. 
I don't think it matters what you do anyway. If the place is so small that they recognize, acknowledge and remember you when you only play once every 4-6 week, your long term prospects are in trouble anyway.
However, In this situation, I would go smoke and mirrors on them. Rather than go back to 1 unit, I would bet somewhere between 2 and 3, but mixing up odd amounts for a couple hands. $135, $115, maybe even breaking down a $5 chip and bet $122.50, $167.50 or $147.50.
I don't think it matters what you do anyway. If the place is so small that they recognize, acknowledge and remember you when you only play once every 4-6 week, your long term prospects are in trouble anyway.
However, In this situation, I would go smoke and mirrors on them. Rather than go back to 1 unit, I would bet somewhere between 2 and 3, but mixing up odd amounts for a couple hands. $135, $115, maybe even breaking down a $5 chip and bet $122.50, $167.50 or $147.50.
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Walk
I'd take a break, answer a call, something else besides starting that new shoe. What's the drawback of walking away for a while? If you want your seat back just have them throw lammers on your spots.
If there's some reason you MUST keep playing (not sure why this would ever be the case) then I'd drop the bets to something like half the amount or less, but still with a reasonable-looking pile.
Betting $500 off the top once in a while does have a small -EV, but pretty crazy variance, and it's a rare event. If you're way up at that moment you might be able to justify it BR-wise, but I don't see the need.
My favorite routine is to walk away but backcount, and hope it gets to a point where there's no need to reduce my bets (much).
I'd take a break, answer a call, something else besides starting that new shoe. What's the drawback of walking away for a while? If you want your seat back just have them throw lammers on your spots.
If there's some reason you MUST keep playing (not sure why this would ever be the case) then I'd drop the bets to something like half the amount or less, but still with a reasonable-looking pile.
Betting $500 off the top once in a while does have a small -EV, but pretty crazy variance, and it's a rare event. If you're way up at that moment you might be able to justify it BR-wise, but I don't see the need.
My favorite routine is to walk away but backcount, and hope it gets to a point where there's no need to reduce my bets (much).
Since you pushed the last hand, I would probably make a comment to the PB such as, "wow that was gettin a little scary for a second before I pushed", or, " that was a little bit too close for comfort, Im gonna tone it down a little bit". The OP said he was chatting with the PB before, so I don't think this would look too out of place depending on the way the OP looked and acted up until this point. However, I think playin the same color could have benefits, so I would probably just toss out 1 black chip, or maybe 1 each on two spots, and keep it out there until I lost them.
betting $500 will only have an average $2.50 loss but how often does this happen? How many times would this need to happen to reach N0 on this particular play?
May as well go put $500 on red on roulette, then the pit boss thinks you are a roulette loser too. I guess it depends how much you really want to stay welcome at the casino
May as well go put $500 on red on roulette, then the pit boss thinks you are a roulette loser too. I guess it depends how much you really want to stay welcome at the casino
You didn't mention how many players were at the table. If you were alone, I think you'd need to leave -- at least temporarily. If there were others there, I'd advise you to put three black chips in the betting square while the dealer shuffles, then slide two of them back just as the burn card is going into the discard tray. You'll be stuck playing with black chips until you've lost a couple in a row.
I think your $500 bet should've contained some greens on top. It provides the ability to mix colors on your bets and achieve the desired total less conspicuously. Had your last bet been 4 blacks and 4 greens, you could've stacked up say, 7 green chips for the start of the next shoe, and manipulate from there.
I think your $500 bet should've contained some greens on top. It provides the ability to mix colors on your bets and achieve the desired total less conspicuously. Had your last bet been 4 blacks and 4 greens, you could've stacked up say, 7 green chips for the start of the next shoe, and manipulate from there.