Positive Progression Betting - luck or variance?

[ihate17]

I believe what I see and know and not necessarily what I am told

I beg your pardon....
And do you consider 20 years a "short term situation" ?

And what makes you think that I believe that it has worked for 20 years?

Also, not only do I not publish my system, I have no intention of ever selling it, to anybody !

Good, but why even mention it then?

If card counters would have kept counting systems private, then casino blackjack would be better for everyone, counters, and non-counters.
We wouldn't have 6:5 blackjacks, and all the other countermeasures your bravado has brought down upon is all.

At the time that 6/5 single deck was introduced, single deck blackjack had disappeared from the strip almost entirely for several years. The re-indroduction was just as much a marketing tool (everyone thinks the less decks the better) as it was to prevent counting. Overall, the cost of running a $5 or $10 single deck game on the strip at that time made it a losing proposition for the casino if counting did not exist. Not enough money is made to cover overhead on a low limit table and since 6/5, like CSM's appear on generally the lowest of limit tables it has become a way for the house to charge extra for the seat rental at that table.

 

[Sonny]

If card counters would have kept counting systems private, then casino blackjack would be better for everyone, counters, and non-counters.
We wouldn't have 6:5 blackjacks, and all the other countermeasures your bravado has brought down upon is all.

So the 6:5 games were invented to thwart card counters? It seems strange that it took the casinos 40 years to invent it. It almost seems pointless since far less than 1-in-1,000 customers are a threat to the casinos. I always thought that the 6:5 games were a way for casinos to boost their bottom lines at the expense of their customers. The same goes for weaker comps and shuffling machines.

And do you consider 20 years a "short term situation" ?

I certainly could be. One of my coworkers has been playing BJ for a little over 10 years now, but I would estimate that he has only played a few thousand hands in his life. I’m sure you would agree that his results are based on a short-term situation. You don’t mention how many hands you have played so it is impossible to know what your situation is.

You also don’t mention any specifics about your computer program so we really don’t know what is going on there either. The only thing we know about your program is that it mistakenly told you to always double 11 vs. A.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=114033#post114033

While I understand your secrecy about your system, surely you can offer us something more than hearsay.

-Sonny-

 

[standard toaster]

So the 6:5 games were invented to thwart card counters? It seems strange that it took the casinos 40 years to invent it. It almost seems pointless since far less than 1-in-1,000 customers are a threat to the casinos. I always thought that the 6:5 games were a way for casinos to boost their bottom lines at the expense of their customers. The same goes for weaker comps and shuffling machines.



I certainly could be. One of my coworkers has been playing BJ for a little over 10 years now, but I would estimate that he has only played a few thousand hands in his life. I’m sure you would agree that his results are based on a short-term situation. You don’t mention how many hands you have played so it is impossible to know what your situation is.

You also don’t mention any specifics about your computer program so we really don’t know what is going on there either. The only thing we know about your program is that it mistakenly told you to always double 11 vs. A.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=114033#post114033

While I understand your secrecy about your system, surely you can offer us something more than hearsay.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many years ago, I ran simulations of a few million hands and discovered that the proper play was to double 11 vs dealer ace. The number of decks, and
h/s17 made no difference. As a matter of fact, the EV of double 11 vs A was slightly better than double 11 vs 10
I suspect the reason many "experts" suggest otherwise is due to a simple "bug" in the "simulations" or the "mathematical analysis". I won't go into that here, but it would explain the discrepancy.

-Sonny-

If your program can not blay simple basic strategy and miscalculates simple things such as doubling 11 v a how can we trust it to run an entire progression system that this world has never seen before. I dont think we can... espically since you believe your program has figured out a bug that thousands of others have missed. We need some proof we need something give us a little bit of your system. I would love for you to prove all of us wrong because if its true i will give up counting and give you half of my profits from your system... and thats on top of the 10k from the wizards offer

 

[hawkeye]

Shouldn't a progressive system be able to beat coin tosses?

 

[standard toaster]

Shouldn't a progressive system be able to beat coin tosses?

coin tosses i believe so... but no game in the casino is a coin toss
a coin toss does not have a house edge a minimum or a maximum bet

 

[hawkeye]

I actually don't think it can, I was hoping to bait the poster into saying it would.

I think at best it would come out 50/50, which answers the question.

Thanks goodness for people who believe in progressive systems, it seems to be good cover. When you up your bet and casino personnel takes notice you can talk in hushed tones about your "special progressive system" and you're good.

 

[standard toaster]

I actually don't think it can, I was hoping to bait the poster into saying it would.

I think at best it would come out 50/50, which answers the question.

Thanks goodness for people who believe in progressive systems, it seems to be good cover. When you up your bet and casino personnel takes notice you can talk in hushed tones about your "special progressive system" and you're good.

Everything i know goes against a progression and i can prove why all progressions are a bad idea but i think when it comes to a game thats 50/50 no house edge and no betting limits a progression would beat it. If not it will end up 50/50 like you said so you cant really go wrong.

 

[ihate17]

yes, in the imaginary world

Shouldn't a progressive system be able to beat coin tosses?

They should be breakeven in the imaginary world.
Here in the so called "real world", you have a limited bankroll and the casino has table limits. Having lost over 20 blackjack hands in a row several times, I know that my bankroll would be exausted or I would reach the table limits well before my progression got me up one unit during one of these losing streaks.

ihate17

 

[Katweezel]

Mysterious

They should be breakeven in the imaginary world.
Here in the so called "real world", you have a limited bankroll and the casino has table limits. Having lost over 20 blackjack hands in a row several times, I know that my bankroll would be exausted or I would reach the table limits well before my progression got me up one unit during one of these losing streaks.

ihate17

This is one of life's many many mysteries to me. What on earth makes someone LOSE 20 or more BJ hands in a row? Why wouldn't they stop after 10, 7, or even 5? Were you trying to set a new world record? :cat:

 

[standard toaster]

Everything i know goes against a progression and i can prove why all progressions are a bad idea but i think when it comes to a game thats 50/50 no house edge and no betting limits a progression would beat it. If not it will end up 50/50 like you said so you cant really go wrong.

Im quoting myself haha but id like to correct myslef.. idk what i was thinking you could assume the HE as 0.00 making it a break even under all circumstances... it made me think though

 

[sagefr0g]

This is one of life's many many mysteries to me. What on earth makes someone LOSE 20 or more BJ hands in a row? Why wouldn't they stop after 10, 7, or even 5? Were you trying to set a new world record? :cat:

you realize, i'm sure one might well suspend play if they lost 10, 7 or even 5, problem is maybe you sit back down and lose another 10, 7 or even 5.

 

[ihate17]

An example, the last time this happened

This is one of life's many many mysteries to me. What on earth makes someone LOSE 20 or more BJ hands in a row? Why wouldn't they stop after 10, 7, or even 5? Were you trying to set a new world record? :cat:

To the best of my memory
I started a shoe and flat bet 10 hands as the count went between +1 and -2 and wonged out after losing every hand.
Had dinner and started a new shoe at another casino and again the count stayed in a neutral zone except for one hand and lost every hand including a couple of doubles and a split. I estimated 10 hands and 13 bets.
Moved to another table in the same casino and lost the next 6 hands, which included another double before the count started to rise a little and I actually won a hand. I aprroximate 26 hands, 30 bets but only 32 units gone during that stretch. As a P.S., before I actually left that casino I was up about 20 units.
So, I stopped two times during the stretch, played in two different casinos and a total of three tables. Like you, I do not think my stomach or my method of play would keep me on the same table for that many consecutive bad hands, especially since I usually wong out when the count goes south.

I am surprised that my post did need this explaination though.

ihate17

 

[ihate17]

One more point

You mention leaving even after 5 hands?

5 hand losing streaks are so common that I do find them annoying but not unusual at all.
I also think in just about every 10 hour period of blackjack play (different casinos, different days, does not matter) you will land up with a streak of 7 or so hands in a row.
I also have read that in a 20+ hour period of blackjack play that you are due a steak of 10 losses.

Stuff happens and the rules of the game make your biggest losing streak most likely longer than your biggest winning streak. The good news is when those losing streaks happen at minimum bets and the winning streaks happen during large bets.

ihate17

 

[davidmcclung]

Positive progressions

Remember that we are talking about upping bets after wins, which is a positive progression. We are NOT suggesting upping bets on losses, negative progression, per some recent posts. Now Fred does not tell us what happened after 2002 and he suggests that the casino would be upset if a betting scheme works most sessions, such as increasing bets after wins. Nonsense, as long as you are not counting, they dont care. Also, as Fred is so secretive about his scheme this tells you a lot about Fred. Now here is my up to date HONEST results from my NO RETREAT scheme that I posted above, and did have a recent session loss but continues its overall win. 39 sessions played, 5 losses and 34 wins for net win of $3410, a nice supplemental income.

 

[Sonny]

39 sessions played, 5 losses and 34 wins for net win of $3410, a nice supplemental income.

So you’ve won about 87% of your sessions and lost about 13%. That’s pretty close to your mathematical expectation:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=71606

One more losing session and you’ll be at 85%/15%, right where you expect to be. Watch out, it’s going to be a big one!

-Sonny-

 

[Katweezel]

Dealer streak from hell

To the best of my memory
I started a shoe and flat bet 10 hands as the count went between +1 and -2 and wonged out after losing every hand.
Had dinner and started a new shoe at another casino and again the count stayed in a neutral zone except for one hand and lost every hand including a couple of doubles and a split. I estimated 10 hands and 13 bets.
Moved to another table in the same casino and lost the next 6 hands, which included another double before the count started to rise a little and I actually won a hand. I aprroximate 26 hands, 30 bets but only 32 units gone during that stretch. As a P.S., before I actually left that casino I was up about 20 units.
So, I stopped two times during the stretch, played in two different casinos and a total of three tables. Like you, I do not think my stomach or my method of play would keep me on the same table for that many consecutive bad hands, especially since I usually wong out when the count goes south.

I am surprised that my post did need this explaination though.

ihate17

Yeah, I hate17, I was mostly remembering the time in Sydney when I watched a guy drop 70 grand, all in brand new $100 notes, in less than two hours. He played BS, at a shuffled 8-deck shoe, $100 min, $1000 max. Things started OK, but his smug look became increasingly anxious as the dealer busts went on extended leave and were replaced by a swag of dealer 21s off anything and a dealer streak of legendary status.:devil:

I am thinking, not your day, mate. Go throw some dice or something, break it up. Leave, now! But he stayed and even began spreading 1K to 3 hands to try to break the evil dealer streak that had descended from hell; but all to no avail. At one point he must have lost 20 hands in a row. His stash was gone and he walked out a picture of shatter, disillusion, despair and what happened to me! Casinos love these guys! :sad:

 

[standard toaster]

Yeah, I hate17, I was mostly remembering the time in Sydney when I watched a guy drop 70 grand, all in brand new $100 notes, in less than two hours. He played BS, at a shuffled 8-deck shoe, $100 min, $1000 max. Things started OK, but his smug look became increasingly anxious as the dealer busts went on extended leave and were replaced by a swag of dealer 21s off anything and a dealer streak of legendary status.:devil:

I am thinking, not your day, mate. Go throw some dice or something, break it up. Leave, now! But he stayed and even began spreading 1K to 3 hands to try to break the evil dealer streak that had descended from hell; but all to no avail. At one point he must have lost 20 hands in a row. His stash was gone and he walked out a picture of shatter, disillusion, despair and what happened to me! Casinos love these guys! :sad:

of course they do. he was agambler not a counter! the casino loves everyone beside us you know that. All the talk about streaks proves nothing... how many times has it been said eventually there will be an infiniter losing streak. Of course in a lifetime you most likely will not expirence this but its possible. I dont understand how the constant talk of streaks, gamblers and bad beats can make us better in any way.

 

[Katweezel]

Losing streak blues

of course they do. he was agambler not a counter! the casino loves everyone beside us you know that. All the talk about streaks proves nothing... how many times has it been said eventually there will be an infiniter losing streak. Of course in a lifetime you most likely will not expirence this but its possible. I dont understand how the constant talk of streaks, gamblers and bad beats can make us better in any way.

ST, Watching that guy lose like that was a great lesson for me, 6 years ago. I pass it on, just in case there is anyone left here, who has not as yet, seen or experienced such an extreme, prolonged, negative dealer-dominant streak, (as distinct from reading about it in a book.) The guy I saw could not believe that such a thing could happen to him. After all, it simply never happens like that, on the kitchen table now, does it!!! :cat:

 

[standard toaster]

ST, Watching that guy lose like that was a great lesson for me, 6 years ago. I pass it on, just in case there is anyone left here, who has not as yet, seen or experienced such an extreme, prolonged, negative dealer-dominant streak, (as distinct from reading about it in a book.) The guy I saw could not believe that such a thing could happen to him. After all, it simply never happens like that, on the kitchen table now, does it!!! :cat:

well i would have to say that yes yes it does happen on the kitchen table. The problem with that is that it really has no effect on you. Mentally your not losing anything and you may even alter the results or simply just try again. The table at home also does not put you on tilt. Your not going from 100 to three hands of 1000 your just flat betting so not only do you not care your losing your losing less because you dont care.

 

[ihate17]

For the newbe counter who has not yet experienced this

of course they do. he was agambler not a counter! the casino loves everyone beside us you know that. All the talk about streaks proves nothing... how many times has it been said eventually there will be an infiniter losing streak. Of course in a lifetime you most likely will not expirence this but its possible. I dont understand how the constant talk of streaks, gamblers and bad beats can make us better in any way.

For the majority of us, we have sat there with a high count and got hammered hand after hand. We have also hammered the casino.
For the new or novice counter who thinks that counting is like turning his local casino into his personal ATM machine, I think these kind of messages have a lot of value.
I get several private messages from newer counters on this board and they often touch this kind of subject

ihate17