Proper bet spreading for Ace sequencing
- Thread starter Jack_Black
- Start date
Are we remiss to not mention this controversial book, without which I
would not have become proficient with my rudimentary Ace tracking >>
http://www.blackjackaceprediction.com
would not have become proficient with my rudimentary Ace tracking >>
http://www.blackjackaceprediction.com
gAnother thing to consider when calculating your edge, is that when you don't get the ace you get a different card. If getting an Ace first gives you a 50% advantage, catching a 6 first has to be a significant disadvantage. As an example, here is a statement that can't be true:
1.) 1 in 2 correct keycard
2.) 1 in 13 catch an ace (chance if not tracking at all in a complete deck or decks)
3.) 50%/2/13 = approx 2% advantage
I might be thinking about this wrong, but it seems you need to somehow account for the other possible cards.
1.) 1 in 2 correct keycard
2.) 1 in 13 catch an ace (chance if not tracking at all in a complete deck or decks)
3.) 50%/2/13 = approx 2% advantage
I might be thinking about this wrong, but it seems you need to somehow account for the other possible cards.
i dont understand why you would devide by 13
it mightve been 50%/2 + 50%/13
25% + 4% = 29%
but i this is obv wrong because the perk of catching a random ace is almost exactly negated by the cost of all the other small cards that hurt
simplified, iits just ~50%/2 because if u dont get THAT ace then your just where you started (slightly worse for removal of an ace. w/o looking it up this is probably worth ~1%)
it mightve been 50%/2 + 50%/13
25% + 4% = 29%
but i this is obv wrong because the perk of catching a random ace is almost exactly negated by the cost of all the other small cards that hurt
simplified, iits just ~50%/2 because if u dont get THAT ace then your just where you started (slightly worse for removal of an ace. w/o looking it up this is probably worth ~1%)
if a 1 card key is asking for trouble
and a 2 card key is hard to remember try just remembering the colors whichll either be black-black or red-red half the time and the other half the time just remember the second card's suit and the other one will be narrowed to the opposite color. if you can rememebr a 2(~1.5) card key you remove having to divide your edge by (a full) 2 for the event that you observe the wrong key.
if you do a real 2 card key (rank and suits) this also helps you estimate how tight the shuffle is. if you see an ace followed by Ks and 9d, in the next show where you see a 9d/ks* followed immediately by the other then the chances of all 3 being clumped goes up. if the keys are 4 cards appart then its probably still worth at least doubling ur bet, but deff less than u would if the keys came out back to back
*depends on how they went to the discard tray
i think your effectiveness depends on how well they riffle. if it was blackchipjim's dealer who just strips the deck then no biggy, but if its a tight riffle then this may be worthless.
how many keys are you trying to remember per shoe? i would try to just get 1 or 2 keys that followed 2+ aces or an ace with faces after it. dont waste ur capacity on aces followed by a bunch of small cards. theyd be worth using but not if it costs doing 1 or 2 keys right
(sorry if any/all of this is obv. thinkin out loud for myslf too)
and a 2 card key is hard to remember try just remembering the colors whichll either be black-black or red-red half the time and the other half the time just remember the second card's suit and the other one will be narrowed to the opposite color. if you can rememebr a 2(~1.5) card key you remove having to divide your edge by (a full) 2 for the event that you observe the wrong key.
if you do a real 2 card key (rank and suits) this also helps you estimate how tight the shuffle is. if you see an ace followed by Ks and 9d, in the next show where you see a 9d/ks* followed immediately by the other then the chances of all 3 being clumped goes up. if the keys are 4 cards appart then its probably still worth at least doubling ur bet, but deff less than u would if the keys came out back to back
*depends on how they went to the discard tray
i think your effectiveness depends on how well they riffle. if it was blackchipjim's dealer who just strips the deck then no biggy, but if its a tight riffle then this may be worthless.
how many keys are you trying to remember per shoe? i would try to just get 1 or 2 keys that followed 2+ aces or an ace with faces after it. dont waste ur capacity on aces followed by a bunch of small cards. theyd be worth using but not if it costs doing 1 or 2 keys right
(sorry if any/all of this is obv. thinkin out loud for myslf too)
