question about ES vs. dealer 10

S

salsa4ever

Member
#1
#1
ok, some background on myself I am a pretty good poker player and novice card counter. lately been having success on this game:

4 deck
H17
DA2
DAS
about 3 pen
No Hole Card, Euro Style
ES vs. 2-Ten
No surrender vs. Ace
Low heat

can I get some opinion as to the playability of these conditions? How does the affect of the ES vs. Ten balance out against having no dealer peaking on ace? What's the approx. HA? I've estimated it out to be about 0.4%

If heat is low, am I better off just playing all with 2 hands [possibly spreading to three on high count if ploppies are there] and spreading 1-40 to get more hands in than Wonging out?

does anyone have surrender indicies for Hi-Lo on EARLY surrender [vs. a ten]?

many thanks if you take the time out to help a BJ novice
 
B

blackriver

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
i know your supposed to surrender 14, 15 an 16 v 10, and 16 v 9, but i wonder what the indicis are for 13 and 12 vs 10 etc. combined with risk adversity and card preservation (heads up) i would think these should be surrendrs at reasonably but high tcs
 
S

salsa4ever

Member
#4
#4
yeah that's what i'm wondering too, especially given the ace reckoned nature of hilo count it should capture sufficiently well the desirability of surrender

pen is 3 decks / 4
spread 5-200
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Sounds like Eastern Europe.

House Edge is about 0.35%

That is a huge bet-spread you are using.

I trust that you have a huge bankroll to handle the inherent risk.



Hi-Lo Late Surrender S17 (not considering European No Hole Card):

  • 16 vs. Ace = −1
  • 16 vs. Ten = −2
  • 16 vs. 9 = 0
  • 16 vs. 8 = 4
  • 8-8 vs. 10 = 0
  • 8-8 vs. 9 = 7
  • 15 vs. Ace = 2
  • 15 vs. 10 = 0
  • 15 vs. 9 = 2
  • 15 vs. 8 = 7
  • 14 vs. Ace = 6
  • 14 vs. 10 = 3
  • 14 vs. 9 = 7
  • 13 vs. 10 = 9
 
B

bj21abc

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
With 75% pen and those limits (depending on the currency :) and how long the store stays open every day, the game is playable. with a high spread like yours there is no reason to Wong out. Do not use the numbers in the previous posts for late surrender (vs 10) - incorrect for your game.

Indices for Early surrender

14 vs 9 = +6
14 vs 10 = 0
15 vs 8 = +6
15 vs 9 = +2
15 vs 10 = -2
16 vs 8 = +6
16 vs 9 = 0
16 vs 10 = always
17 vs 10 = +6

note -
1. these are my indices (derived), which take into account a floored count and risk aversion and some rounded edges (to simplify tables)
2. Don't worry too much about (1) :) it has been demonstrated that being off by one number (eg using index +2 instead of +3) has a minimal effect on your results. Being off by 2 is not great, but not a disaster.
3. In multi-deck (4, 6 decks) games your betting, especially for your bet spread, is much more important than your playing indices. So, spend some time checking your ramp for max EV and correct RoR.

For more info PM me (after making 4 more posts so that you can use PM...)

D.

salsa4ever said:
ok, some background on myself I am a pretty good poker player and novice card counter. lately been having success on this game:

4 deck
H17
DA2
DAS
about 3 pen
No Hole Card, Euro Style
ES vs. 2-Ten
No surrender vs. Ace
Low heat

can I get some opinion as to the playability of these conditions? How does the affect of the ES vs. Ten balance out against having no dealer peaking on ace? What's the approx. HA? I've estimated it out to be about 0.4%

If heat is low, am I better off just playing all with 2 hands [possibly spreading to three on high count if ploppies are there] and spreading 1-40 to get more hands in than Wonging out?

does anyone have surrender indicies for Hi-Lo on EARLY surrender [vs. a ten]?

many thanks if you take the time out to help a BJ novice
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
T

tthree

Banned
#7
#7
Pairs

The info I found was similar to the above (off by one lower on all indices) and it didnt say how many decks so the differences may give a clue. It gave pair indices:

77 and 88 v T as -2 for both hands
 
B

bj21abc

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
This too sounds like LS not ES.

Pairs are less relevant in ES10 - you would not want to split 88 vs 10 (not sure about the index but not even at low neg counts, which are fairly irrelevant for the spread in question) - and of course 77 vs 10..... I treat them the same as 16 and 14.

tthree said:
The info I found was similar to the above (off by one lower on all indices) and it didnt say how many decks so the differences may give a clue. It gave pair indices:

77 and 88 v T as -2 for both hands
Click to expand...
 
T

tthree

Banned
#9
#9
bj21abc said:
This too sounds like LS not ES.

Pairs are less relevant in ES10 - you would not want to split 88 vs 10 (not sure about the index but not even at low neg counts, which are fairly irrelevant for the spread in question) - and of course 77 vs 10..... I treat them the same as 16 and 14.
Click to expand...
You may be right about bad information. It might be for single or double deck. But the hand 77 v T the sevens have a significant effect on the chances the dealer will bust. It is probably worth a closer look.

* The EOR for the eights is not small either.
 
Last edited:
B

bj21abc

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Not significant in 6D.


tthree said:
You may be right about bad information. It might be for single or double deck. But the hand 77 v T the sevens have a significant effect on the chances the dealer will bust. It is probably worth a closer look.

* The EOR for the eights is not small either.
Click to expand...
 
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