Question mostly for Sunny

[leatherguyray]

I have read the information and the posts on this site for quite a few months now, ever since I undertook learning to count and foregoing my very, very, very long-time successful system method of playing BJ.

I know and play absolutely perfect basic strategy. No problem with knowing that foreward and backward. I learned Red Seven after having bought and read Arnolds book BBIBJ. I was impressed and assurred it was as good a basic counting system as was available. I bought other books, also. Knock out for one. But Arnold said he checked the validity of counting the extra cards as KO does when he developed Red Seven. All that aside. I am proficient at Red Seven. I have practiced it for several months in the stores with relatively favorable games. I have done it precisely as Arnold instructs using only the basic RC and a half dozen indices he suggests and the bet ramp he recommends for that strategy.

There seems to be no win there for me. With my many, many years of system play and strict record keeping so I didn't fool myself I averaged about $5.00 per playing hour. In the months I have used Red Seven I am down arount $3K using the ramp and spread Arnold suggested. That's just playing red chip BJ. He called it conservative. Anyway, I have two questions I hope to get absolutely direct answers to without all the opinion and soap boxing I read regarding so many questions asked.

Two hopefully simple questions:
Can one win in the illusive long run with counting only (nothing else, just counting) and specifically with a basic count system like Red Seven? Not concerned about tiny percentages, what system will do a tiny bit better, or high-rolling and getting rich. ... only if Red Seven properly applied will get the money?

KO seems to be much more talked about and used. Is it a general consincesus (sp) that KO is superior to Red Seven .. and even if so is the difference enough to make substantial difference?

Sorry I'm long-winded. I always am even though I promise myself I will not be. I"ll appreciate knowing the answers to these two questions. I can ride negative flux. Don't like it , of course, but can do it but I need to know is counting with Red Seven is enough to be a winner ... long term? Thanks

 

[Southpaw]

I am not Sonny, nor am I his imposter; however, I think I may be able to offer some insight as relates to your first question.

I presume that your question of CC's profit potential arises because you have thus far not seen favorable results. However, I guarantee you that there is no statistical significance associated with your few months of play. Few realize how large the variance is in relation to the expected win-rate with card-counting.

In this thread, I discuss fluctuation that one might see after a very active lifetime of play:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=20523

Use the equations I used to find out how many standard deviations you are away from EV.

Then, use this table to calculate the likelihood of your unfavorable outcome:

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/gerstman/EpiInfo/z-table.htm

You'll probably be horrified at how uncommon such down-swings are, from a statistical perspective.

Conclusion: If simulations indicate that the game you are playing has a decent SCORE, then it probably is a winning in practice, as well. However, be ready for a roller-coaster.

Best,

SP

 

[leatherguyray]

Thanks Southpaw from Leatherman

Thanks for the info. I have some idea of what you say (and believe it) from reading over time. That is why I said I can handle the negative flux if and when I have to. I will read the info you provided and thanks again for a direct reply. I still hope to find whether counting, especially using Red Seven, is enough to become a winner eventually? Not big, just a winner. I know other skills can add effectivness at winning, but can counting alone do the job? Thanks again for your reply.

 

[Southpaw]

Thanks for the info. I have some idea of what you say (and believe it) from reading over time. That is why I said I can handle the negative flux if and when I have to. I will read the info you provided and thanks again for a direct reply. I still hope to find whether counting, especially using Red Seven, is enough to become a winner eventually? Not big, just a winner. I know other skills can add effectivness at winning, but can counting alone do the job? Thanks again for your reply.

A simulation is really going to be the answer to whether you are playing a winning game, and whether or not the advantage is worth the risk, time and effort.

SP

 

[blackjack avenger]

Certainly Not Me

You know you could have asked Sonny the question directly without insulting every other person here! LOL

No one plays perfectly, the sooner you realize that the better. One can still win with minimal errors.

Many of the answers given are from each individuals experience, for many of the questions there are no right or wrong answers and many of us have our areas of expertise or experience.

I agree with Southpaw you probably have not played enough.

:joker::whip:
good cards to all of you opinionated, unintelligent blowhards LOL

Are you listening Blackjack Avenger; oh wait, that's me! :joker:

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I still hope to find whether counting, especially using Red Seven, is enough to become a winner eventually? Not big, just a winner. I know other skills can add effectivness at winning, but can counting alone do the job? Thanks again for your reply.

As with almost all gambling-related questions, the answer is: it depends. First off, you must make sure that you're not making any mistakes. Since you're using an unbalanced count, deck estimation isn't a problem, which is good. So just make sure your count is absolutely accurate. Next, you must employ proper game selection. If you're playing beatable games with a solid strategy, you will most likely win in the long run. When I say "most likely," I trust you'll understand that even with an edge, there's a small chance (risk of ruin) that you can bust. But unlike any systems you may have played in the past, with this you are actually a favorite to win money; you have a positive expectation.

You win at card counting by increasing your bets as the count becomes favorable. An unfortunate result of this is losing many large bets (ie. variance). Compared to a conservative progression, your wins and losses will be much larger, so losses can be distressing at first. Over the course of many trials, though, you should show a profit.

Consider a casino offering this game: 6D S17 DAS RSA LS. The house edge is under 0.3%. A nickel counter using Red 7 is probably playing with a 1% edge or slightly more, for reference. Will the casino make money at this game if every player that plays it knows and uses perfect basic strategy, even though their edge is less than 1/3 of the Red 7 player's edge? Of course! They may take a ton of beatings from lucky players, but over the course of many thousands of trials, they're practically guaranteed a profit.

There are many things you can do to increase your edge counting, and Red 7 will get the money. Learn index plays, play at games with fewer players (more hands per hour = more trials = faster trip to the "long run"), employ good game selection (good penetration, decent rules), don't give away your edge in dealer tokes, don't give away money in the form of cover bets and fool yourself into thinking it will buy you longevity, and make sure you're spreading large enough to beat the game. Possibly invest in a simple simulation program like CVCX (qfit.com) to make sure you understand your edge, variance/standard deviation, risk, etc.

I would also recommend studying a few math basics, such as basic probability, EV (expected value), variance, and the law of large numbers. Hope this helps!

 

[b jay cobbson]

"Counting cards is easy....

Can one win in the illusive long run with counting only (nothing else, just counting)

....Making money counting cards is the hard part." Stanford Wong, unwritten advice.

Cobbson

 

[leatherguyray]

Can Red Seven Win

Thanks for the replies. I have no intention of insulting anyone. My words concerning Sonny and others was intended more to draw specific attention to a very specific question or two. I posed those and while I do appreciate all the other expertize and advice and I sure do not want to seem a know it all, but a couple one line, direct answers is what I hope to get.

True, I personally may not have played enough (as a counter) I've darn sure played enough. Thousands of thousands of hours I suspect. But, not so counting. But, not the question. The question I have is: Can Red Seven and Red Seven alone...without other advantage stratagies win. Not will it for me when I do it well enough or play it long enough, but for anyone. Is good proper counting enough. I can win at this game. I've done it in a two bit way for years. But, I have bought into the idea presented over and over that without being a counting, therefore, advantage player I can not win in the "long run." So, I have to wonder if me or anyone else has ever been a winner using Red Seven to count and using that skill only. No tracking, no hole carding, no anything else. Just count and have a definate edge which should show through eventually.

Answers might be, "yes one can be a winner using counting and nothing else and Red Seven will give a definate edge so that if dollars are won you will be a long term winner.

One might say: Yes, Red Seven is roughly as good ad KO. Ko and other counts may do better, have a few points better advantage, but nothing major and Red Seven properly applied will get the money.

The last poster pretty well said that it would becasue he said it presented approxmately a 1% advantage. Thanks for the replies.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Short answer: yes, you can win at blackjack by using Red 7 and counting cards alone, with no additional advantage techniques used.

Long answer: much more important than the short answer.

Again, it depends. I assure you that this isn't meant to be evasive, it's just the fact of the matter. Consider these:

1. Make sure your counting skills are dead-on accurate and quick
2. Learn valuable index plays
3. Establish a betting strategy (ie. ramp/spread) that will give you a reasonable advantage (again: invest in a simulation program)
4. Be able to execute your playing and betting strategies in a live casino environment
5. Select games with adequate penetration and game speed
6. Don't blow money on cover plays and tokes
7. Maintain a bankroll that is large enough to allow you to employ your bet spread while keeping your risk to an acceptable level

If you are able to do these things, then yes, you are very likely to win money. The counting system you use is not very important in most cases, especially if you're playing multiple-deck games. Red 7 will do just fine, and it has the added bonus of not needing a true count conversion, which may be a weak spot for many players.

Also, when people say you haven't played enough, I believe the implication is that you simply haven't repeated enough trials, not that you're inexperienced. Law of large numbers...

 

[leatherguyray]

Thanks Lonesome Gambler

Well now, what a great, direct and well-put reply. Thank you so much. I do know that you are right about the other factors being even more important and I will give severe attention to perfecting those things. I don't do them badly now, but there is room to improve.

The game I play most often (because it is close) is 6 deck shoe, dealer hits soft 17, split any pair, resplit to 4 hands, split aces receive one card, bj pays 3-2, and late surrender. The penetration is probably close to as good as it gets these days. They cut right at one deck and deal five. That may vary by ten cards.

The bet ramp and indices I use are those generated by Arnold in his book. It is a one to eight spread with only 6 indices. The very basic system. I wanted to become absolutely proficient with that before adding refinements.

I know that it will amount to a lot of guess work, but do you have any idea why I have been a constant winner for a very long time (with dry spells to be sure) but winner overall, always. Then I begin counting and I think doing so pretty well, yet losing constantly? These are the same cards I would receive whether counting or system betting as I used to do. The single difference is in the way I bet .. ie, betting the ramp according to the count. And losing. I can absolutely, with no doubt whatever, guarantee that all these losses would not be loses with my old method of play. Sure, some would. But, I'd be an overall winner playing those same hands, during those same hours at the same tables with the same dealers.

Therein lies the reason for my question about can counting alone if done well get the money because with the comparisons I have to make it is looking doubtful. But, I will stay the course. If Arnold says it will work and you substantiate that then I'll do as I did when I undertook counting to begin with. I'll trust what has been proven.

Thanks again for your great answer. I am getting old and irritable and I know that, but I do get irritated at many questions asked on the threads and the less than truly helpful answers so many get. I wish folks with valuable things to say would answer the question first (just answer the question)... just as you did...then add what may need adding in their opinion. Thanks again.

 

[Shoofly]

The bet ramp and indices I use are those generated by Arnold in his book. It is a one to eight spread with only 6 indices. The very basic system. I wanted to become absolutely proficient with that before adding refinements.

The only thing I would suggest is to go ahead and learn the Advanced Indices suggested by Arnold. The word "advanced" sounds intimidating, but is simply a few more indices to more closely resemble the I18 & fab 4 used in balanced systems.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I know that it will amount to a lot of guess work, but do you have any idea why I have been a constant winner for a very long time (with dry spells to be sure) but winner overall, always. Then I begin counting and I think doing so pretty well, yet losing constantly? These are the same cards I would receive whether counting or system betting as I used to do. The single difference is in the way I bet .. ie, betting the ramp according to the count. And losing. I can absolutely, with no doubt whatever, guarantee that all these losses would not be loses with my old method of play. Sure, some would. But, I'd be an overall winner playing those same hands, during those same hours at the same tables with the same dealers.

Part of the problem with what's happening is your belief that your old system was a winner. You can read the FAQs for a longer answer, but here's a summary: betting systems that are not dependent on deck composition (like card counting betting strategies) will not provide you with a positive expectation. You'll be playing the same negative expectation game that everyone else is but with more variance. Progression systems are likely to show consistent wins over a large period of time, but they'll eventually give you a loss greater than all your wins combined. You simply hadn't hit that point yet (fortunately).

Again, I strongly recommend reading up on and understanding EV and the law of large numbers. Counting won't cause you to win money based on any sort of pattern—it just lets you put more money on the felt when the remaining cards favor you. You're still going to lose a lot, and when you are putting big bets out, you'll still lose a lot of them too. Over time, your wins will overshadow your losses; in the meantime, it may seem that you're always losing. This is just a short-term result, and it doesn't accurately reflect your expectation. Understanding the two concepts that I mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph is essential and will answer your questions thoroughly.

As for more indices and your betting spread: the game you're playing is decent, but a 1-8 spread isn't going to provide you with much of an advantage. I strongly, strongly recommend getting CVCX and using the simulations to develop an optimal bet spread based on your counting system, indices used, bankroll, and the amount of risk you're comfortable with. By doing this, you'll know your expectation (EV), your expected hourly income, your risk of ruin, what kind of variance you can expect, etc. In the meantime, learn more indices and keep practicing.

 

[leatherguyray]

Lonesome Gambler advice

Lonesome Gambler said: As for more indices and your betting spread: the game you're playing is decent, but a 1-8 spread isn't going to provide you with much of an advantage. I strongly, strongly recommend getting CVCX and using the simulations to develop an optimal bet spread based on your counting system, indices used, bankroll, and the amount of risk you're comfortable with. By doing this, you'll know your expectation (EV), your expected hourly income, your risk of ruin, what kind of variance you can expect, etc. In the meantime, learn more indices and keep practicing.

Again, good, solid advice and very much apreciated. The store I play at so often with the game I described is real laid-back and do not seem to care about counting whatever. Dealers basically take turns working the pit and floor. No real pros here. Don't know about security, but I do know that I can spread froma nickle to a hundred if I want. I have done so. But, constant losing has made me fear that.

I am taking your word and the word of countless others that my old system can not be a winner. I have demonstrated that I accept that since I set it aside and now count. I guess I have just been extremely fortunate for years and the bottom would fall out eventually. When one has a proven, documented track record over a very extended time it is hard to accept that "it can't work." Know what I mean? But I do....intellegently anyway.

I will do the things you suggest, for sure. Now that I am assurred that the counting will work if done well and properly I can hang and do what I need to do. Some things I have read have led me to believe that in shoe games one really can not win without use of other advantage playing edges to assist counting. There and there alone is where my doubt was. I think you have set that doubt aside and I'll get better. I always work hard to master whatever I undertake. Thanks again for you input and your time.

How does one put a portion of another's post in the early part of a reply in highlight like you did with your last reply to me? I quoted part of your reply in the beginning of this, but it is not hilited and I don't know how to make that transfer of a portion of text.

 

[ArcticInferno]

Red Seven has a higher betting correlation than KO.
Red Seven is slightly better than KO.
However, the KO book is better written and has technical explanations that a lot of “math guys” like.
There’s a great paragraph that explains the essence of unbalanced systems, which actually gives an insight into all systems in general.

Yes, you can win with both Red Seven and KO.
However, only if you drop your voodoo system. Don't mix them together.
How am I so confident that your voodoo system is a loser? Because the casinos allow you to do it. Plain and simple.
Your record keeping is flawed. If your records date back years and years, and you show a net positive win with a voodoo system,... then,...
About 20 years ago, Pepsi released research data that “proved” that more people chose Pepsi over Coke. Later, it was discovered that Pepsi ignored certain data and emphasized desirable data to produce the study results. Come on man,... You can’t do that!

 

[leatherguyray]

Thanks Artic

ArticInferno wrote: [Your record keeping is flawed. If your records date back years and years, and you show a net positive win with a voodoo system,... then,...
]

No, my record keeping is not flawed whatever. Any, though I may have made it sound so, my actual...pen to paper...records only date back five and one half years (5 1/2). Prior to that it was just in my head and I began to wonder if after such a long time was I kidding myself. Was I really winning or was I just remembering the wins and forgetting some of the losses? Hummmm
Well, I decided to record every single session of every single card in every single city...both wins and losses... and know for certain. I was very, very careful. The record is accurate and despite what "has to be" this is what "IS" I am a $5.00 per hour of play winner over an extended period of time and most certainally that is factual over the 5 1/2 year period of careful record keeping.

Having said all that, I understand why you say what you say and overall I do believe what you say and that is precisely why I have undertaken counting rather than keeping my "voodo" system. I do not and will not mix them.

Thanks for your straight answer regarding Red Seven and KO. You support what Arnold said, that his system is slightly better than KO. Arnold impresses me so I went with him. I do have the KO book. I'll re read it for the info contained you mentioned. The math ...whew. If ever anyone sucked at math it is me. It boggles my mind. Literally. I have to rely on others and use their math. I would have had a 4.0 average in college were it not for math. Barely passed that.

Thanks again for the reply

 

[Billy C1]

How much play?

ArticInferno wrote: [Your record keeping is flawed. If your records date back years and years, and you show a net positive win with a voodoo system,... then,...
]

No, my record keeping is not flawed whatever. Any, though I may have made it sound so, my actual...pen to paper...records only date back five and one half years (5 1/2). Prior to that it was just in my head and I began to wonder if after such a long time was I kidding myself. Was I really winning or was I just remembering the wins and forgetting some of the losses? Hummmm
Well, I decided to record every single session of every single card in every single city...both wins and losses... and know for certain. I was very, very careful. The record is accurate and despite what "has to be" this is what "IS" I am a $5.00 per hour of play winner over an extended period of time and most certainally that is factual over the 5 1/2 year period of careful record keeping.

Having said all that, I understand why you say what you say and overall I do believe what you say and that is precisely why I have undertaken counting rather than keeping my "voodo" system. I do not and will not mix them.

Thanks for your straight answer regarding Red Seven and KO. You support what Arnold said, that his system is slightly better than KO. Arnold impresses me so I went with him. I do have the KO book. I'll re read it for the info contained you mentioned. The math ...whew. If ever anyone sucked at math it is me. It boggles my mind. Literally. I have to rely on others and use their math. I would have had a 4.0 average in college were it not for math. Barely passed that.

Thanks again for the reply

The question that begs to be answered is--------how many HOURS of play are you talking about in that 5 1/2 year period?

BillyC1

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

KO is a great book for a beginner to learn from, so definitely try to fully understand the mathematical concepts before moving on—they're important.

As for being a winner on a progression system after 5 1/2 years, it's not at all impossible, especially if you don't have many hundreds of hours under your belt during that time. Of course, you'll still lose in the long run, you just got lucky and stayed in the black during your 6 years or so of playing a losing system. You made a good choice by moving on to counting before you hit that losing streak!

With counting, your edge is so small that you'll need to play hours and hours to hope to see results that amount to more than short-term variance. Say you're playing a game with N0 of 17,000. This is a figure that can very loosely be looked at as a form of the "long run." That means that you must play 17,000 hands before your results will somewhat accurately reflect your expectation. Hopefully that puts things into perspective. Good luck!

 

[Sonny]

Your record keeping is flawed. If your records date back years and years, and you show a net positive win with a voodoo system,... then,...

His record keeping may not be flawed. It might just be a case of jumping to an invalid conclusion, which is discussed in this sticky thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7821

-Sonny-

 

[ArcticInferno]

His record keeping may not be flawed. It might just be a case of jumping to an invalid conclusion, which is discussed in this sticky thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7821

-Sonny-

Oops! My fingers are faster that my brains.
Correction: Your record keeping *may* be flawed.
The state lottery is the worst gamble, but people still do win them.

 

[leatherguyray]

Billy C1 Ask how many hours played

I am only posting this record to attempt giving a solid answer to Billy C1's question. I AM NOT posting it trying to suppport system play and I am NOT attempting to recommend that anyone else try system play. It is answer to a question. Nothing more.

Here is the last 13 month actual record before I quit the system and undertook counting. It should be sufficient record to give you a good idea how much I played and play today. I average about the same hours day in and day out, week in and week out, month in and month out, etc. etc.

I averaged 5 sessions per week x 56 weeks = 280 sessions played

Session durations ranged from 1 to 12 hours each ... probably averaged 3-6

I won 4 out each 7 times at the table = 120 losses and 160 winning sessions

My losses for 120 of the sessions was $24,600.00 (That is $200.00 per losing session plus $600.00 in doubles, splits, etc on the last hand before quitting)

My wins for the other 160 sessions was $31,450.00

My winnings, in pocket, are $6,850.00 for that period

13 Months = $526.92 per month

For 56 weeks that averages = $122.32 won per week

That averages $42.81 actual winnings per winning session (About $7.00 per hr based upon average 6 hour sessions.)

The way I have managed my play is:

I buy into a session with $200.00 and never invest more than that in any single session. Losing the $200.00 buy is my loss limit with the occasional exception of needing to double or split, etc on the last hand before exiting.

I never leave the casino a loser if I have, at any time, been ahead by as much as one half of my buy.

I begin a session with a $5.00 base bet unit

Zero is my loss limit

If my table bankroll increases to $300.00, I set $50.00 aside along with my original $200.00 buy in to establish a stop loss at $250.00

If my table bankroll then continues to increase to $400.00 I add $50.00 to my stop loss and increase my base bet unit to $10.00

From there I continue adding $50.00 of each $100.00 increase to my stop loss until, when and if, my total table bankroll reaches $500.00 I increase my base bet unit to $15.00

Then I continue play adding as above to my stop loss and bet increases until such time as that stop loss is realized, or in a few cases, where I just decided to quit.

My winning sessions look like this:

Number of sessions * Dollars Won = Total Dollars for that number sessions

64 At less than $100.00 = $600.00
36 x $100.00 = $3,600.00
18 x $125.00 = $2,250.00
12 x $150.00 = $1,800.00
20 x $200.00 = $4,000.00
19 x $300.00 = $5,700.00
9 x $400.00 = $3,600.00
7 x $500.00 = $3,500.00
1 x $600.00 = $600.00
1 x $700.00 = $700.00
1 x $2,800.00 = $2,800.00
1 x $1,100.00 = $1,100.00
1 x $1,200.00 = $1,200.00

Total wins = $31,450.00 minus $24,600.00 Losses = $6,850.00 in pocket. (There is where the math that matters is located in my opinion. All else may lie or get screwed up and out of whack, but when one substracts wins from losses or visa versa, counts the money in his pocket, that answer is simple even for a math simpleton such as I. )