Question on counts before a shuffle

[Habitual]

Quick question, assuming you have been counting down a 6 deck shoe and the count goes real negative just before the shuffle. Seen as the count has been low you have only been betting table min. However seen as the shoe has ended negatively you have actually had a positive EV shoe?

Paradoxically if u have a very high count and increase your bets but the high count doesn't drop before the shuffle you have technically played a neg EV shoe?

I'm pretty new to counting but have been reading as much as I can and practicing most days. I'm hoping to hit a local casino pretty soon and looking forward to it.

Just thought I'd ask u more experienced counters your thoughts on the above comments, is it something to bear in mind or is it irrelevant due to variance etc?

 

[HockeXpert]

Quick question, assuming you have been counting down a 6 deck shoe and the count goes real negative just before the shuffle. Seen as the count has been low you have only been betting table min. However seen as the shoe has ended negatively you have actually had a positive EV shoe?

Paradoxically if u have a very high count and increase your bets but the high count doesn't drop before the shuffle you have technically played a neg EV shoe?

I'm pretty new to counting but have been reading as much as I can and practicing most days. I'm hoping to hit a local casino pretty soon and looking forward to it.

Just thought I'd ask u more experienced counters your thoughts on the above comments, is it something to bear in mind or is it irrelevant due to variance etc?

Welcome aboard, Habitual.

You are correct about both of your observations. Newton's third law of motion says "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" and this applies to mathematics behind counting as well. With counting there is just no way to tell when and if the opposite reaction will happen before the shuffle. Only after a great number of samplings will your return start to resemble those of your expectation. Anything can and will happen in the short run.

Counting is a lot of work for very little return with most games today and not a get rich quick scheme. Start slow and seek more knowledge.

 

[21gunsalute]

Quick question, assuming you have been counting down a 6 deck shoe and the count goes real negative just before the shuffle. Seen as the count has been low you have only been betting table min. However seen as the shoe has ended negatively you have actually had a positive EV shoe?

Paradoxically if u have a very high count and increase your bets but the high count doesn't drop before the shuffle you have technically played a neg EV shoe?

I'm pretty new to counting but have been reading as much as I can and practicing most days. I'm hoping to hit a local casino pretty soon and looking forward to it.

Just thought I'd ask u more experienced counters your thoughts on the above comments, is it something to bear in mind or is it irrelevant due to variance etc?

Moot point. When the shoe is over it's over. No sense in crying over spilled milk. Sometimes shoes will swing wildly each way, going double digits into both positive and negative territory, so where the shoe ends up at count wise isn't always a good indication of how the shoe fared. Several times I've had my max bet out at the end of the shoe, but after the last hand is played out the count has gone negative. Conversely I've played shoes where minimum bets were called for the entire shoe only to have a slew of small cards come out on the last hand to the point where if we could have gotten one more round my max bet would have been out.

 

[Habitual]

21gun, I get what your saying, makes sense. Basically we play the cards and in the long run should be playing a pos EV game, going shoe by shoe doesnt matter.

Hocke, thanks for the welcome, ive actually been looking on this forum a few times over the years but only really started to focus on the finer details of the game!

 

[kewljason]

Your comments are absolutely correct. If the count is rising, meaning small cards are coming out, you are playing a negative shoe. At the start of a round with a high count, the expectation for the next hand is positive as there is a better chance that high cards will come out, but when that hand is actually played if more small cards come, then the hand was actually played at negative expectation. The problem is that you don't know until after the fact. (hindsight)

By that same reasoning, there are many times that you play through a negative count, (not me personally as I walk away rather than play) and the count keeps going further negative each hand and at the end of the shoe is very negative, and yet you have won many of those hands. The expectation for each of those rounds prior to the hand being played was negative, but that was with the expectation that the count would turn and the small cards which are in abundance would start coming out. When that fails to happen and more tens and aces come out, you were actually playing at an advantage, but again, hindsight. There is no way to tell (strictly by counting) that this will happen.