Quitting When Ahead?

E

eddiejenkinson

Member
#1
#1
Was wondering if there has been any study done on quitting when ahead with card counting. But at different levels.

I know when I played without counting, I would go through great extremes.

ie -80 to +60, but eventuarlly would lose all unless the casino shut before I had given them all my money.

I know with card counting you make money in the long term.

I also know that you might only make 0.5% per hand.

So an average bet of £10, over an hour (say 80 hands) would reap

10 x 0.005 x 80 = £4

What would happen if you were say £40 up at some point, isn't it best to leave.

There may be situations where you get a split and the a double down with your highest bet? Again isn't it wise to leave.

I know you can also lose in these situation, but in the long term, since you have the edge, it wouldn't matter.

Just wondered if there is any study on this type of thing?
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#2
#2
eddiejenkinson said:
Was wondering if there has been any study done on quitting when ahead with card counting. But at different levels.

I know when I played without counting, I would go through great extremes.

ie -80 to +60, but eventuarlly would lose all unless the casino shut before I had given them all my money.

I know with card counting you make money in the long term.

I also know that you might only make 0.5% per hand.

So an average bet of £10, over an hour (say 80 hands) would reap

10 x 0.005 x 80 = £4

What would happen if you were say £40 up at some point, isn't it best to leave.

There may be situations where you get a split and the a double down with your highest bet? Again isn't it wise to leave.

I know you can also lose in these situation, but in the long term, since you have the edge, it wouldn't matter.

Just wondered if there is any study on this type of thing?
Click to expand...
Plenty. "Stop win" and "stop loss" tactics only reduce counters' profits over time
BECAUSE it reduces playing time. Doesn't work, scientifically. zg
 
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blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Very Situation Dependent

If a shoe is negative - quit whenever you want and start another shoe.

If a shoe is positive - try to never quit, quitting costs money.

If early in session - try to never quit, quitting a session early costs you money. Less time played = Less money in the long run.

Heat is a major consideration on when to stop.

If very late in session, winning big, and tired - stop.

There are others.

Stopping when tired is probably always a good idea.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
In general, trying to stop when you have a win will just redistribute your sessions, more small winning sessions, and a few big losers. Stopping at a small loss will tend to do the reverse, more small losses, a few big winners. The overall advantage or disadvantage won't change.

Unless you start quitting during high counts, in which case you're hosing yourself.
 
C

Chapel

Member
#6
#6
I may be misquoting, but I think Wong said in Professional Blackjack that your goal should be a certain amount of time and not a certain amount won. He explains that although you will come up with plenty of examples where 'you should have walked away at $xxx', you should look at any bet based on the long term. For instance, if your edge is 1%, you should treat a $100 bet as you earning $1.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
one thing a losing counter will do

You have several winning sessions and the fear of giving that money back is the only cause for you to end your session early. That is your decision, but I question what the same kind of person does during losing sessions.
Do you then play marathon sessions when losing and constantly remind yourself that you have an edge and as long as you keep playing, you should get your money back?
Of course if you do play long enough, it could be months, your money will come back if you have an edge, but if a quick survey of your sessions show short winning sessions and marathon losing sessions, you are probably over money managing your wins while letting it all hang out on your loses.

ihate17
 
D

duffytoo

Member
#9
#9
quitting when ahead

Wouldn't it be great if we always had the option of quitting when ahead?

Take ihate17's (love that name) advice. Marathon sessions rarely are successful.
My wife says I always do better with my "Hit and Run" strategy. Many small sessions (often none being losers) and getting out the door when it turns negative (count and luck). Also, keeps the heat off of you.

Where I get in trouble, is that I hate to leave any table a loser. I will attempt to get my money back then leave, even if I am only up one basic wager. Sometimes I will stay too long. Knowing that I should win the majority of the time, I find it difficult to accept even one losing session. Even though I know that NO ONE WINS EVERY TIME. It is a foolish pride thing just like when I used to stand rather than sit because I knew I was better and smarter than the dealers. Age has made me wiser and now I sit and hide.

good luck
 
R

rukus

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
duffy - just want to clarify something. if you're just straight up counting using one of the standard counts, you shouldnt be winning even close to all the time. winning about 65% of the time is more like it, so im surprised (and happy for you) that you only walk with a losing session only once in a while.
 
D

duffytoo

Member
#11
#11
You are correct. It's those lengthy sessions when I seem to get my butt kicked. Hit and Run has worked for me since the 70's when I lived in LV.

I'ts those longer sessions that seem to get me. I now play most of the time with my wife, who doesn't like to move from a good game, regardless of how she's doing. It's tough to get her away from the EC and the Plaza.
 
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